Season Outlook
UHND.com - Ken L. Britton
September 6, 2001

At the beginning of the 2000 season, it was widely speculated by fans and sports media alike that Bob Davie's job depended on the 2000 season.  Coming off a disastrous 1999 season, having the man who hired him replaced, and faced with what seemed to be a brutal schedule, 2000 would be the year that Bob Davie proves himself to be the real thing or simply another Faust.  Davie then turned the Irish into a formidable team and turned the season around from early disaster into a 9-2 year.  The Irish had national respect, Davie had job security, and he was armed with a new five year extension.  Cap it off with a bowl win and the Irish might be in the top five next season....

Only Davie stuck himself right back on the hotseat.   After a ridiculous whipping to OSU, in which OSU's defense was calling out Rogers' plays, a recruiting class was pulled in which will be remembered for the coaching staff whiffing on so many recruits that Jose Canseco was somewhere smiling.  Irish doubters were given new ammunition, so now Irish fans have to be subjugated with the "they do not have enough speed yet" garbage that know-nothing college football journalists seem to love to publish.  And so lines of that 8-3 or 7-4 is acceptable due to the "brutal" schedule do and will continue to permeate.

Make no doubt about it the Irish schedule is tough.   Is it brutal?  That remains to be seen.  Certainly there will be the tough games: at Nebraska and when Tennessee comes to town.  Question marks then abound.  The middle of the pack teams could be good or could be very average.   USC has as much talent as anybody in the nation, but it never seems to matter, and Pete Carroll has the respect of, um, nobody.  BC, WVU, Purdue, MSU, Pitt, and Stanford are the other teams in this group.  Texas A&M, and I hate to say this, just is not a power anymore.  But playing at College Station is not, and probably never will be, easy.  The Irish only have one 'cupcake' on the schedule, Navy on November 17th.  That factor will be the toughest part, many teams will have off weeks even when they have games.  The Irish will have virtually none.

On paper the Irish outlook is good.  On offense both tailback and wide receiver are loaded positions with depth.  The line did lose two good starters, however the talent pool behind them is outstanding.  Quarterback Matt Lovecchio showed a lot of promise, and should only get better, especially passing the ball.  The Irish have moved to a zone blocking OL scheme, which fits the talents of their players much better, and should help the play of the line, which was inconsistent last season.  Look for Sean Milligan, John Teasdale, or Ryan Scarola to fill in for Mike Gandy, and Sean Mahan has already locked up the open LG position.

On defense Darrel Campell and (hopefully) Cedric Hilliard will fill in the open tackle spots, which were adequate last season with Lance Legree and B.J. Scott, but still no inside pass rush existed.  The Irish lost five defensive starters, three of which were drafted, but it should not make a difference, as some   very talented players are available to fill the holes.  Glenn Earl if healthy will start at FS, and Courtney Watson will have the biggest shoes to fill as replacing defensive MVP Anthony Denman.  With six pretty good starters back and plenty of depth excuses for not having a defense ranked in the top 30 in the nation cannot continue to be told.  Campbell and Hilliard give the tackle position the first real speed it has seen in years.  Overall, Weaver, Boiman, Earl, and Sapp are the potential play makers, and the success of the defense hinges on their play.

Davie does have some problems on his hands.  Can a consistent pass rush be developed?  Can any type of passing game be developed?   Is Kevin Rogers a great offensive mind, or an average one put up against a fairly east SU schedule?  All those questions should be - conclusively - answered in the coming fall.

A disturbing trend has been the constant and unflinching loyalty to upperclassmen  In FOUR years Davie has elevated THREE players over their upperclassmen.  All on offense, Julius Jones (over Tony Fisher), Joey Getherall (over Jay Johnson), and Matt Lovecchio (over Gary Godsey).  This despite -according to Davie's own words- that he came in with little talent, and that since then the talent level has been upgraded.  Would you not want to play the younger players if they are better than the ones you were given?  Guess not.  The principle of inserting different players if the ones on the field are not performing has been non-existent.   Interestingly enough, the excuse of "he's done some good things for us" or "he deserves the chance" always comes up, not "he's the best player I have."

Watch as Gerome Sapp has to sit behind Ron Isreal, Sean Milligan and Ryan Scarola will sit behind 'hasn't-done-much in four years' (despite getting quite a bit of playing time) John Teasdale, and Vontez Duff will fall down to fourth corner behind Jason Beckstrom and Clifford Jefferson.  Is Courtney Watson better than Mike Goolsby?  Probably, but it will not matter even if Watson does not perform, he's a year ahead of Goolsby.  And John Owens will be starting at tight end.

Reasons why the Irish will finally take that step back to prominence

The Turnaround:

The Irish were clearly a better team - and a better coached team - this year than the last three.  There's little if any reason to believe that Davie will let up on his players this year because of last year's success.   The Irish staff has assumed a mindset of constant urgency, a philosophy that will not hurt at all.  The offensive line blocking scheme has been changed to suit the players strengths, and Rogers promises a better passing game.

The Talent:

Put quite simply, this team is loaded.  Play makers and blue chippers abound everywhere, and the offense hasn't had this many weapons since '92.  An aggressive defense should be the best Mattison has had, and there's even depth on the line.  This year there will actually be too many wide receivers to put on the field.

And Because:

Because it's Notre Dame.  Go Irish

So what is the bar which needs to be set for Davie.   How many wins does it take for success, and how many losses would it take for a farewell?  Davie has done some good things off the field, like graduating his players and keeping the team out of trouble.  Despite last year's recruiting debacle, the coaching staff has plugged away and now has the foundation of a top two or three class.   But despite a tough schedule, the Irish have way too much talent not to play well.   Four losses or more and changes need to be made.  Davie will get the benefit of the doubt at 8-3, but in reality 10-2 (after a bowl) would count as a success.

Nebraska Preview

It never was and will not be easy to play in Lincoln at night, no matter what kind of team NU puts on the field. Never-the-less, this is the least talented defense the Cornhuskers have put on the field in quite some time, and it should be able to be exploited.  Much was said of Nebraska's offensive line, but it should be beyond worrying about, the line is always good.  One of the largest fallacies about last year's team was the lack of dominance at the tailback position. There was no breakaway threat.  Who cares? Dan Alexander rush for over 1,000 yds and Correll Buckhalter for over 800.  I do not see either Deidrick or Thunder Collins as any better than either of those two.  TCU exploited an interesting weakness in rushing from the outside, and Davie should pick up a few notes from that.

One key is to hit Crouch, continually.  Don't let him out into the open, and always take away the QB run on the option.  The tailback pitch is dangerous with the risk of fumbling, and the fullback dive is not a real threat.   Solich has some talented receivers, but they cannot seem to hang onto the ball.

On the Irish's side of the ball there is little to comment on.  It all depends on the performance of the offensive line.  That's true of the season as well as the game.

Prediction: Going with the gut: Nebraska 27, ND 19.   Away and at night is too tough.

Random News and Notes

-After watching some game tape of last season, the most maligned Irish player has to be Jordan Black.  He does have some trouble with footwork is pass protection, however much of the time I saw him making his assigned blocks against not only defensive ends but linebackers as well.  The most overrated is probably Ron Isreal. It might be due to injuries he has last summer, but he has trouble adjusting in space and moving laterally.

-In a recent Sporting News poll 60% of voters selected Major Applewhite, who will sit behind Chris Simms, as the Longhorns Most Valuable Player. Obviosuly, Mack Brown is running short on popular support.

-Despite the loss to UCLA, look out for Alabama the next couple of years.  They are loaded with talent, and now have some good coaching.   Other sleeper teams include Fresno State, Cal, and Ilinois.

-Well, the good news is that I was wrong.  Duff is the third corner, and ahead of Jefferson on the depth chart.

-A final note, season prediction: 6-5 as the turnover ratio inevitably slides a little bit, and special teams magic goes from outstanding to good.  The offensive line will continue to struggle, and besides Weaver it will take multiple blitzes to apply a pass rush.  Here's to hoping I'm wrong.

Questions? Comments? klb1@keene.edu

DISCUSS THIS ARTICLE ON THE BOARD - CLICK HERE