Top 25 Weekly Predictions
UHND.com - Joe Brunson
10/12/2001
My Poll
Top 25 Matchups
#1 Miami -7 (4-0) At #13 Florida State (3-1) 12:00 pm ET
Florida State has won 54 straight games at Doak-Cambell Stadium. Their last loss came in a 17-16 defeat at the hands of Miami in 1991. Many have waited for this showdown and a chance to see if Miami is for real. They have yet to be tested in their quest for roses, but are sure to be challenged in Tallahassee. The quarterbacks leading these two powerhouses will be hounded by two of the fastest defenses in college football. However, FSU has yet to prove their defense has turned the corner this season. They allowed a 257-yard rushing performance to Wake Forest last week. Miami has allowed only 8 points/game, 2.8-yds/rushing attempt, and caused 15 turnovers in four games. Albeit these statistics are against subpar opponents, they are staggering when compared to FSU’s offensive output. While Seminole QB Chris Rix has played well in leading all freshman quarterbacks in pass efficiency and yardage, their rushing game has produced only 3.6 yds/carry. The team who has ran the ball better has won 11 of the last 12 meetings. The question, as always, will be who makes plays. Florida State has lost its top two playmakers from a year ago to injury in Anquan Boldin and Robert Morgan. Their top 2 leading receivers, starting quarterback, and starting tailback did not play in the loss to Miami last season. Meanwhile, the Hurricanes bring a seasoned clutch QB in Ken Dorsey who rallied his team to beat Florida State a year ago. Miami is still heated up about FSU playing for the National Championship last season and is prepared to ensure there is no repeat scenario. Miami has the more talented squad for the first time since 1991 and will be ready to prove their ranking. Look for the Hurricane defense to force Chris Rix to throw into their talented secondary. By shutting down the run, Rix must find yardage through a group of inexperienced wideouts. Miami should be able to run the ball with Clinton Portis and TE Jeremy Shockey could have a huge game via play-action passing. The Hurricanes are too much for FSU this time around and will win by ten.
#2 Florida –20.5 (5-0) At Auburn (4-1) 7:45 pm ET
Florida has amassed 1272 yards in their last two games against Mississippi State and LSU, while allowing a mere 2.6 yds/att. on the ground and causing five turnovers. They are rolling through good teams as though they were division 1-AA slouches. It looks as though this could be one of Spurrier’s best teams ever. Auburn has been starting freshman Jason Campbell at QB this season. While he has not produced outstanding numbers, he has produced three SEC wins in 3 tries. Last week against Mississippi State they used more two-back sets to take pressure off of Campbell, who only threw the ball thirteen times. The backs they rely on are Casinious Moore and Carnell Williams. They have combined for 589 yards and six touchdowns in the Tigers’ conservative game plan. Florida will be without RB Earnest Graham due to an injured ankle. His replacement Robert Gillespie is more than capable as he has an identical 5.5-yard average and is the fourth leading receiver on the squad. This problem that looms heavy for Auburn, and all other defenses who face the unenviable task of opposing the Gators, is QB Rex Grossman and his receiving corps. Grossman’s lofty numbers exceed any other Florida quarterback in the history of the program. Of course, it helps when you’re tossing the ball to the likes of Jabar Gaffney, Reche Caldwell, and Tyler Jacobs. Together they have caught 75 passes for 1423 yards and 16 scores. Over the last four games, the Auburn defense has allowed an average of 307 yards each and will not be able to better it on Saturday. Last season Florida outscored the Tigers 66-13 in their two meetings. The Gators are even better this year. Florida wins this mismatch by 27.
#3 Oklahoma –20 (5-0) At Kansas (2-2) 7:00 pm ET
Oklahoma rides an 18-game winning streak into Lawrence for a matchup against a much-improved Jayhawk’s team. Kansas is hoping for an OU letdown as they face a Sooner defense that boasts forcing a nation’s best 18 turnovers per contest. Kansas QB Mario Kinsey will likely start, but look for Sophomore Zach Dyer to see playing time. The Jayhawks major source of offense comes from RB Reggie Duncan. He had a breakthrough game in last week’s overtime victory at Texas Tech. He ran the ball 38 times for 227 yards to help KU even out their record. Unfortunately for Kansas, Oklahoma has found its rush defense after the KSU game and held Texas to a mere 27 yards on 25 tries. Nate Hybl has the nod for starting quarterback despite Jason White’s extraordinary showing in relief last week. Look for OU to suffer a bit of an offensive slumber during the first half due to an obvious letdown and a jubilated home crowd. It will wear off, as OU should stuff the run, which will lead to KU pressing the pass. And we all know what happens when teams try to force things on the Sooner "D". Oklahoma by 24.
#4 Nebraska –32.5 (6-0) At Baylor (2-2) 2:00 pm ET
In their last three matchups, Nebraska has outscored Baylor 122-7 in the first half. Don’t be fooled by the near upset of Texas A&M last week, the Bear offense is anemic. Quarterback Greg Cicero has only thrown for 600 yards, including five interceptions in four games. The only thing worse than that is their pitiful rushing attack which produces a scant 2.4 yards/attempt. Match that with a Husker defense allowing only 2.2 yards/attempt and you get an ugly one down in Waco. No contest as Nebraska continues to roll with a 35-point win.
Boston College (4-1) At #5 Virginia Tech –20.5 (5-0) 6:30 pm ET
Boston College comes to Lane Stadium with three straight wins and is looking to surprise Virginia Tech. TB William Green, who is the Big East’s leading rusher at 146.2 yds/game, paces the Eagles. Quarterback Brian St. Pierre has modest numbers, but plays with his head as he has thrown for 12 touchdowns so far. He most surely will be asked to air it out this week with the Hokies allowing only 39.4 yards rushing per game. Staying with the defensive theme, they hold opponents to just 136 yards passing per game and have given up a mere 24 points all season. Offensively, Virginia Tech has their duo of Keith Burnell and Kevin Jones averaging nearly five yards a pop and give QB Grant Noel an easy time tossing the ball via play-action. Virginia Tech will again play effectively, but this is a veteran unit from Boston College. Somehow, BC always gives the Hokies a bit of a scare. I think they will again, but only through the first half. Look for Virginia Tech’s o-line to dominate more and more as the game goes on en route to a 20-point victory.
#6 Oregon –13.5 (5-0) At California (0-4) 3:30 pm ET
Oregon travels to Berkeley searching for their first 6-0 start since 1964. The Ducks have finally gotten their offense in high gear and it has come at the hands of their top two tailbacks: Maurice Morris and Onterrio Smith. A major reason is the improved play of the offensive line that grudged out enough room for a 285-yard average on the ground over the past two games. They have also helped out QB Joey Harrington in allowing only one sack. Following a near upset of Washington, the Golden Bears have had a week to prepare for Oregon. They should have a bit of trickery awaiting the Ducks as the last two years they have played tough losing by only 13 points combined. The question is where will it come from? QB Kyle Boller came off a season-high in yardage and touchdowns against Washington however, he has no supporting cast. They are averaging only 3.3 yds/att. on the ground and only RB Joe Igbar has reached the endzone from a handoff. Oregon does not have a strong defense by any stretch, but they do have speed to burn and facing a one-dimensional team is much easier to defend. Harrington has played solid all year, yet does not have huge numbers because the running game has emerged. Look for him to breakout with a 300+ day on Saturday. California has no defense and this should be a blowout. However due to recent history, the Golden Bears may stick around a bit. Although In the end, Oregon’s team speed will prevail by 17.
#8 Washington (4-0) At #7 UCLA –12 (4-0) 3:30 pm ET
In a battle of the unbeatens, something must give. Washington has been lucky so far, winning three of four games by 5-points are less. QB Cody Pickett is out with a separated shoulder which means Taylor Barton will get his first start as a Husky. He should play well as he is 15-of-26 for 261 yards and three touchdowns so far. He also led Washington to their last-second victory over USC a week ago. If he is to continue to get it done, he needs help from the running game. Tailbacks Rich Alexis and Willie Hurst are averaging fewer than 4 yards a carry. Washington needs a big game from these two if they are to pull off the upset. Amazingly, UCLA is led by their defense this year. They have given up just 47 points all year including 13 in their last two. In addition, they have forced 10 turnovers and allowed an average of only 126.5 yds passing/game. They haven’t been too shabby on the other side of the ball either. QB Corey Paus has not thrown an interception and RB DeShaun Foster has run for 502 yards this season. UCLA has the better defense and the better running game. Doesn’t is sound awkward to use those words in describing a PAC-10 team? Regardless of the stereotype, UCLA is stout on both sides and will put an end to Washington’s 4th quarter heroics with a ten-point victory.
#9 South Carolina –8.5 (5-0) At Arkansas (2-3) 3:30 pm ET
Ranked in the Top 10 for the first time since 1988, the Gamecocks move on to play in Little Rock. Until last week’s game against Weber State, Arkansas ranked dead last in total offense. They have had quarterback problems all year as Zak Clark, Ryan Sorahan and Tarvaris Jackson have combined to complete only 48.6 percent of their passes for 712 yards with one touchdown and seven interceptions. Even in last week’s mismatch, they were 16-of-30 for 129 yards and a pick. Without star running back Cedric Cobbs (out with injury), the running game has been of little help. They average just 3.2 yds a carry and face a Gamecock defense that is highly underrated. Arkansas plays tough at home, but Lou Holtz is the king of sandbagging and will have his boys ready to play. South Carolina’s offense is beginning to rack up yardage and with the emergence of RB Derek Watson back on the starting unit, they will only get better. Gamecocks by 14.
#10 Fresno State –7 (5-0) At Colorado State (2-3)
Colorado State has scored just 23 points in its three defeats and was inept in a 7-2 loss to Louisville last Thursday. The Rams' Bradlee Van Pelt completed just 10-of-23 passes for 87 yards and was sacked five times. Those numbers are nothing new; Ram quarterbacks have throw for only 152 yards/game with nine interceptions. The bulk of their offense comes on the ground as Henri Childs and Duan Ruff have combined for 628 yards this year. Unfortunately for Colorado State, Fresno State only allows 87 yds/game on the ground. All roads lead to a dominating performance by the Bulldogs. The Ram defense has played decently but not good enough for the firepower Fresno State possesses. QB David Carr has thrown for 1,411 yards and 12 touchdowns. Running backs Josh Levi and Paris Gaines have combined for 721 yards. The Rams do not have nearly enough to handle Fresno State and will get pasted by 20.
#11 Texas –17.5 (4-1) At Oklahoma State (2-3) 12:30 pm ET
The Cowboys get to feel the wrath of Texas in the week following a disappointing loss to Oklahoma. Oklahoma State has given up over 275-yards through the air three times this season which does not seem promising when QB Chris Simms and WR Roy Williams are looking to get back on track. Another subpar performance by Simms could spark one more quarterback controversy with backup Major Applewhite, the starter for most of last season and one-time Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year. Oklahoma State may have trouble finding a way to move the ball against a stout Texas defense. While their running game is only averaging 2.6 yds/carry, QB Aso Pogi (1008 yds & 5 TD’s) is their biggest offensive threat. Look for Texas to invade Stillwater with vengeance piling up numbers in a 28-point thrashing.
#16 Purdue (4-0) At #12 Michigan -11 (4-1) 12:10 pm ET
The Wolverines will be looking for revenge from the one point loss the Boilers handed them last season. Michigan, Purdue and Ohio State are in a three-way tie for first place in the conference. Freshman QB Brandon Hance has been brilliant when the pressure is on, leading Purdue in two consecutive come from behind victories. The demand will definitely be on in front 107,000 screaming fans in Ann Arbor.
In Michigan’s two games against ranked opponents this season QB John Navarre has thrown for 433 yards and three touchdowns. He will need another big-time showing to beat the Boilermakers. Tailback B.J. Askew should be able aid the cause as he has rushed for nearly 5 yards per carry and five touchdowns since taking over the feature back role. Michigan is the #1 defense against the run in the Big 10. However, they rank dead last in pass defense. The Wolverines defense is fast enough to keep Hance in the pocket and make him throw. A freshman in the Big House is never a sound pick for an opposing team. I love Purdue but they do not have the experience to pull this one out. Michigan by 7.
#20 Maryland (5-0) At #15 Georgia Tech –9.5 (4-1) 7:30 pm ET Thursday
Maryland boss Ralph Friedgen makes his return to Georgia Tech on Thursday, where he was the offensive coordinator last season. This game is huge as both teams are at the top of the ACC. RB Bruce Perry who averages a national-best 164.2 yds/game will lead Maryland. He will attempt to break through a Yellow Jacket defense allowing just over 3 yds/attempt. Terrapin Senior QB Shaun Hill does not have gaudy numbers, but he has been progressing nicely for Friedgen. Last week against Virginia he went 22-for-35 for 237 yards and two scores. The Terps also boast the league’s best scoring defense, giving up just 14.2 ppg. Offensively, Georgia Tech matches anyone man-for-man. QB George Godsey ranks eighth in the nation in passing efficiency with a 162.8 rating. He has completed 66 percent of his passes for 1,115 yards with eight touchdowns and three interceptions. The Yellow Jackets have a solid receiving tandem in Kelly Campbell and Kerry Watkins. Campbell is second in the ACC in receptions (25) and receiving yards (371), while Walker has 16 catches for 268 yards and a team-leading four touchdowns.
Georgia Tech also boasts a running threat, as Joe Burns is the ACC's third-leading rusher with 458 yards and eight touchdowns on 104 carries. The Yellow Jackets are 6-0 at Bobby Dodd Stadium, including a 49-31 victory in the last meeting here in 1999. They will make it 7-0, but not by much. This game should come down to the wire and Georgia Tech has more players. Wramblin’ Wreck by 3.
#17 BYU –13.5 (5-0) At New Mexico (2-3) 3:00pm ET
BYU is running and throwing its way to a #1 ranking in total offense. Everything is clicking for first-year coach Gary Crowton. It should be another big day for QB Brandon Doman and the Cougar offense as New Mexico ranks last in the Mountain West in pass defense. RB Jarrod Baxter is the Lobos' top rushing threat, running for 476 yards and five touchdowns on 103 carries. However, the Lobos have had trouble with the passing game as Rudy Caamano and Casey Kelly have combined to complete just 60-of-148 for 808 yards with four touchdowns and six interceptions. It doesn’t matter what New Mexico brings as BYU has way too much offense for New Mexico. RB Luke Staley and company will put up flashy numbers while posting a 26-point victory.
#18 Clemson –3 (3-1) At North Carolina State (3-1) 12:00 pm ET
Clemson has had a week off to prepare for battle against a scrappy N.C. State team. The Wolfpack features Sophomore QB Philip Rivers who has thrown for 944 yards and five scores in four games. It will pretty much be up to him if an upset is in sight as his running offense averages a mere 3 yards/carry. More bad news for N.C. State is they gave up 221 yards to Wake Forest last week and Clemson comes to town with great runners in QB Woody Dantzler and TB Travis Zachery. Dantzler has thrown for 505 yards and rushed for another 231 in his last two games. Rivers is tough to go against in big games at home, but he cannot do it all by himself. Clemson by 7.
#19 Texas A&M (5-0) At Colorado –7.5 (4-1) 3:30 pm ET
Texas A&M is the #1 defense in the Big XXII. All that is about to change. Colorado is an elite team that has yet to be given the credit they deserve. They shut down a very good K-State team last week and were a field goal away from being undefeated with a top ten rating to boot. QB Mark Farris is the Aggies’ only true chance to win this game, as their running show is not as good as many would think. The major problem for A&M is Colorado’s defense is awesome. They recorded six sacks last week and will be very tough to push around, as is the Aggies style. Look for Colorado to make a statement on Saturday and let Ralph run loose on the Aggies. Colorado by 14.
#21 Kansas State (2-2) At Texas Tech (2-2) 8:00 pm ET OFF
The Red Raiders are giving up a Big XXII worst 217 yds/game on the ground. This is just what Ell Roberson and the Wildcats need to get back on track. Texas Tech QB Kliff Klingsbury averages 47 passes per game. He has competed 67.7 percent of his tosses, going 128-of-189 for 1,152 yards with eight touchdowns and two interceptions. This could cause some problems for KSU. However, he has a sprained thumb and is banged up and demoralized after last week’s overtime loss to Kansas. The Wildcats are furious about dropping two straight and haven’t lossed three in a row since 1992. Look for KSU to get back on track and cruise by 24.
Washington State (5-0) At #23 Stanford –3.5 (3-0) 5:00 pm ET
Stanford QB Randy Fasani already has thrown for 10 touchdowns while completing 43-of-80 passes for 721 yards and only one interception. His counterpart QB Jason Gessner is off to a fast start for Washington State as well, completing 81-of-147 passes for 1,306 yards and 14 touchdowns. Cougar RB Dave Minnich has been complimentary rushing for 589 yards and five touchdowns on 126 carries. Neither team’s defense has shown up yet, so look for a shootout. Washington State is looking for respect and they will get behind Gessner who is still bitter over last year’s defeat. Washington State stirs up the PAC 10 in a 4 point win.
Minnesota (1-3) At #24 Northwestern –12.5 (3-1) 12:10 pm ET
These two put on one of 2000's best shows and with potent offenses and bad defenses, this should be another fun one. Northwestern won last year's game on a Hail Mary. Northwestern leads the Big Ten with 444.2 yards of total offense per game. Minnesota is led by RB Tellis Redmond who averages 5.7 yds/carry. His QB Travis Cole is having a rough year in throwing 5 picks compared with only 3 touchdowns. Redmond should get his yards on a soft Wildcat defense. However, Zak Kustok and Damien Andersen cannot be shut down two weeks in a row and will get off on the Gophers for a big day. Northwestern by 14.
Wisconsin (3-3) At #25 Ohio State –10.5 (3-1) 3:30 pm ET
The Buckeyes have been led all year by the play of a great defense and a smash-mouth running game. There will come a time in the Big 10 when that catches up with them. QB Steve Bellisari just does not make big plays and if the Wisconsin's pride kicks in after Indiana’s Levron Williams show, tailbacks Jonathan Wells and Lydell Ross will be in for a battle. Fortunately for Ohio State, they are good enough to pound the ball down Wisconsin’s throat and still win. The Badgers turned the ball over five times against Indiana resulting in 23 points. Look for them to reestablish the run with Anthony Davis, who has rushed for 703 yards this season. This may be an ugly game with dozens of off-tackle plays to make up for poor QB performances from both squads. Ohio State’s defense is good enough to hold Wisconsin at bay. Buckeyes by 6.