Top 25 Weekly Predictions
UHND.com - Joe Brunson
10/5/2001
Espn/Usa Today Coaches Poll
AP Poll
Joe’s Poll
How I Did
Last Week Overall
11-8 ATS 43-34 ATS
17-2 Straight up 68-9 Straight Up
Last Week’s Games
#1 Miami –26 At Pittsburgh
What I Said:
Coming off of a loss to South Florida, Pitt is in way over their heads Saturday night. Their biggest threat is WR Antonio Bryant and he is doubtful with a sprained left ankle. He will most likely play, however; it may not even matter. Miami comes in boasting their first #1 ranking since the 1993 Sugar Bowl. Pittsburgh’s secondary is in for a rude awakening when Ken Dorsey and company arrive. The Panthers allowed South Florida to amass 343 yards passing and four touchdown tosses. It will be ugly if Pittsburgh cannot get pressure on Dorsey. Pittsburgh was a pre-season favorite to knock off the ‘Canes as they returned 10 of 11 starters from last season’s 7-5 team. However, the performance against South Florida has allowed doubts to arise as to Pitt’s entrance as a marquee team in the Big East. Miami coach Larry Coker has his players focused on what they have to do in their first prime time matchup of the season. Pittsburgh is outmanned in this one and with a hobbling Bryant they will not even come close to their anticipated upset. Ken Dorsey will have a Heisman-like performance and the Miami defensive speed is too much for the Panther’s one-legged scheme. Miami will be dominating in a 28-point pounding.
What Happened:
Miami dominated this game from start to finish in a 43-21 blowout. During the preseason, many circled this game as the one where Miami may falter and the Panthers pull off an upset, but the Hurricanes sealed this one up in the first quarter. Miami opened the game up leading 20-7 and never looked back. ‘Cane QB Ken Dorsey played well in a business-like performance going 18-for-32 for 206 yards and one touchdown. RB Clinton Portis was the big-man for Miami running the ball 24 times for 138 yards and three scores. Miami’s defense also played well although the stat sheet and the final score does not show it. Miami led 43-7 in the 4th quarter before Pitt scored two late touchdowns, as the game was already hand. Antonio Bryant did end up playing but he was not a factor catching only three balls for 39 yards.
#22 Mississippi State At #2 Florida –16
What I Said:
Mississippi State will be without the services of their leading tailback Dicenzo Miller when they travel to the Swamp on Saturday. Fortunately for the Bulldogs, Coach Jackie Sherrill has depth at that position in the company of Dontae Walker already splitting carries with Miller. The matchup everyone wants to see is how the nation’s #1 passing team fairs against the nation’s #1 rushing team. Florida’s QB Rex Grossman has joined Shane Matthews as the only Gator to throw for more than 300 yards in three straight games and the Bulldogs have allowed an average of just 68 yards/game through the air. Florida’s boss Steve Spurrier has revenge in mind when the Bulldogs visit Gainesville. Last season Mississippi State upset Florida 47-35 as Miller and Walker gained over 100-yards each. The Gator defense has played better so far this season and Mississippi State looked bad at home against the Gamecocks. I think Florida is too talented this year and they are not only looking for paybacks, Spurrier wants his #1 ranking returned. The Gators are ready and the Swamp will be too. Florida by 17.
What Happened:
Steve Spurrier wanted redemption for last season’s loss in Starksville, and that is exactly what he got. Gator QB Rex Grossman went 23-for-33 for 395 yards and 5 touchdowns as Florida blanked Mississippi State 52-0. The Bulldogs could only muster 214 yards of total offense and were out of this game early. Florida opened up with a 35-point halftime lead and never looked back. Florida recorded their first shut-out in the SEC since 1996, their last national title run. Steve Spurrier never showed Mississippi State any mercy as Brock Berlin threw a 23-yard touchdown pass to Kelvin Kight with 1:45 left. Gator WR Jabar Gaffney led the receiving corps with nine catches for 162-yards. Florida made a statement to the country today as they flex their Gator muscle.
#11 Kansas State At #3 Oklahoma –4.5
What I Said:
The biggest game of this young season will be in Norman Saturday as two undefeated teams from the Big XXII knock heads. Oklahoma has not played a game since a September 8th victory over North Texas. Although they looked sluggish, the Sooner offense looked to be getting their timing back. Now after a 21-day break they will face a defense that will be unforgiving of mistakes. The Wildcats have allowed just six points so far this year and look to have everything going their way. However, Rocky Calmus will be spearheading one of the best defenses in the country and they will surely be ready to defend their crown. I think the running game will determine who comes out on top here. KSU’s Josh Scobey and OU’s Quentin Griffin are both very talented backs and will be counted on as their teams’ threats. A big question is how will OU leader Nate Hybl will react to the demand of a big game. Bob Stoops has not seen his Sooners lose a home game in his tenure as head coach. Oklahoma is 7-1 against ranked teams since his arrival and they are riding a 16-game winning streak that leads the nation. All that will end Saturday. I love Oklahoma, but their offense is just not as good as they were last year and the layoff will cause severe timing problems. Couple that with a KSU defense allowing only 72.5 yards rushing/game and an offense that is beginning to heat up, and you have an upset in the making. I feel the need to spit in the face of all logic and go with K-State to pull this one out. The pressure will be on Oklahoma and they will collapse. This game will be close and Wildcat QB Ell Roberson will be enough of a threat running and passing to keep the opportunistic Sooner defense on their heels. You heard it here; KSU wins a tight one by three.
What Happened:
Sooner QB Nate Hybl stood solid in the face of the K-State blitzkrieg and helped Oklahoma to their 17th straight victory. They led 35-14 in the third quarter before KSU rallied to come within three. KSU Coach Bill Snyder decided not to opt for an onside- kick late in the fourth and kicked it deep. With only one timeout remaining, KSU forced a fourth down for the Sooners inside their own ten-yard line. OU then took a safety to leave seven seconds remaining and that was all she wrote as Oklahoma held on for a 38-37 victory. Wildcat QB Ell Roberson played a gutsy game throwing for 257 yards, rushing for another 115, and scoring four times. In a game that celebrated two of the nation’s top defenses, the quarterbacks stepped up and played huge. Hybl was knocked down virtually every time he dropped back to throw, and still made play after play. He finished with 283 yards and two scores. The player of the game for OU was Antwone Savage who bailed Hybl out by catching 2 balls for 138 yards (both for scores) and completed a 33-yard fake punt for a touchdown. It was Oklahoma’s third straight win over KSU and keeps them in the hunt for Roses as they face Texas next week.
#4 Nebraska -23 At Missouri
What I Said:
Nebraska heads into their Big XXII opener firing on all cylinders. QB Eric Crouch has found his passing game coming off a 165-yard performance in the air against Rice. They have also found an I-back named Dahrran Diedrick, who averages 5.5 yards/attempt. Their defense has been outstanding as always allowing only 67.5 yards/game on the ground. Last season the Tigers totaled 491 yards in Lincoln in a 42-24 loss. However, Kirk Farmer may not throw the ball against the Huskers due to a torn medial collateral ligament. He was the arm that put a small scare into Nebraska and his backup, Darius Outlaw is completing less than 50% of his attempts. Missouri’s running game has yet to show up and not having an offensive identity against the Blackshirts will provide for a severe bludgeoning (just ask Bob Davie). Nebraska and Eric Crouch will again impress beating the hapless Tigers by 35 in Columbia.
What Happened:
Nebraska got off to a slow start, trailing the Tigers 3-0 in the first quarter, and then Eric Crouch took over. Crouch ran the ball 17 times for 191 yards to become the record holder for a single-game rushing performance by a Husker QB. The senior also juked his way to the longest run in Husker history as he ran for a 95-yard score to give Nebraska a 22-3 lead and the upset threat was over. He finished 121-yards passing leading to a 36-3 blowout. Missouri was held to 202 yards of total offense and were not allowed to gain any type of rhythm throughout the game. Nebraska continues their domination and stroll to a 4-0 record heading into a primetime matchup against Iowa State back in Lincoln.
Texas Tech At #5 Texas –17.5
What I Said:
Texas Tech’s Kliff Klingsbury leads the Big XXII in total offense and has helped his team score 42-points in each of their first two games. However, Longhorn QB Chris Simms is coming off of his best performance of the season last week and has seen the emergence of TB Ivan Williams solidify the rushing attack. Texas will have to play better in the secondary than they did against Houston, who blistered them for 364 yards in their latest meeting. The big difference on Saturday could be Texas Tech's inability to run the ball. The Red Raiders' longest rush of the season was 28 yards and it came on a fake punt. A team will not be able to beat Texas this season by showcasing a one-dimensional offense and Texas Tech will find that out. Klingsbury and Simms will both have big games but the Longhorns’ ground game will be the key and the reason they win this one. Texas will be able to control the ball and keep the Red Raider offense off the field. Texas wins a high-scoring game by 19.
What Happened:
Longhorn QB Chris Simms completed his first ten passes of the night en route to a 42-7 route of the Red Raiders. Running an offensive scheme similar to the likes of Oklahoma, Texas Tech seemed to be a good matchup in preparation for the OU-UT rematch next week. It was no contest as Simms picked Texas Tech apart going 20-for-26 for 224 yards and scored twice. RB Ivan Williams added 152 yards on 24 carries as Texas opens up 4-0 for the first time since 1983. Texas Tech QB Kliff Klingsbury played well finishing 40-for-57 with 260 yards, but no touchdowns. Texas will await the Oklahoma rematch, which has been on the minds of Longhorn fans since the 63-14 wallop the Sooners put on them last year.
#6 Oregon –14.5 At Utah State
What I Said:
Two vastly different programs going in opposite directions meet Saturday. Oregon will go on the road for the first time this season when they travel to Logan to face the Aggies. Utah State is coming off of a 43-42 heartbreaker from Wyoming last weekend and a dismal 0-3 start. Meanwhile, Oregon is coming in fresh from a last- second thriller in a 24-22 when over Southern Cal and an expected 3-0 start. Oregon will need to contain the nation’s leader in all-purpose yards (218 yards/game), Utah State RB Emmett White. The Duck’s defense should be up to the task of shutting down White and the Aggies running attack after only allowing 40 yards last week hosting USC. The problem is in their secondary, which allowed Trojan QB Carson Palmer to torch the skies with 411-yards. They should be fine and Duck QB Joey Harrington should have a huge day against a defense that has allowed 97 points in three games. Oregon wins their first of three road games by 22.
What Happened:
Oregon struggled most of this game before scoring 14 points in the fourth quarter to beat Utah State 38-21. Utah State quarterback Jose Fuentes nearly outperformed Heisman candidate Joey Harrington going 26-for-46 for 356 yards and two touchdowns. However he had four interceptions and three came in the fourth quarter. Until that point it was anyone’s game as the Aggies came to within three points. Nevertheless, in the end the powerful Duck offense finally got going and capitalized on Fuentes’ interceptions. Harrington ended up with 261 yards and three scores going 17-of-24. The biggest component of the Oregon attack came on the ground. Maurice Morris carried the ball 22 times for 175 yards and his counterpart, Onterrio Smith, gained 98 yards on 15 attempts. Oregon is now 4-0 and heads into their Pac-10 play.
#14 LSU At #7 Tennessee –10
What I Said:
This is the game that Nick Saban and his LSU Tigers have been waiting for, a chance to show they are for real. Each team boasts superstar tailbacks. Volunteer Travis Stephens rushed for a career-high 206 yards against Arkansas, while Tiger LaBrandon Toefield stepped out for 183 yards against Utah State and has scored seven times in two performances. Tennessee quarterback Casey Clausen is 6-0 in league play and is looking to emanate into the elite player coach Phillip Fulmer expects. LSU counters with their signal-caller, who threw for 318 yards and four touchdowns in a 38-31 overtime victory over Tennessee last season. He is Rohan Davey and has started the year passing for 482 yards and with no picks in 78 attempts. Tennessee is 10-1-1 against LSU in Knoxville and should continue that streak Saturday. The Tigers will come out fired up and play tough throughout the game however the Volunteer defense is just too strong. They have only given up 141 yards/game and have had three weeks to prepare for Louisiana State’s arrival. Tennessee stays undefeated and wins by seven at home.
What Happened:
Tennessee WR Kelley Washington caught 11 balls for a school-record 256 yards and a touchdown as the Volunteers held on to beat LSU 26-18. Tennessee led most of the game taking a 26-7 advantage into the third quarter. Then Coach Nick Saban turned his offense into a no-huddle machine in which Tennessee could not answer. QB Rohan Davey, who was 21-for-43 for 356 yards and two touchdowns, headed an 11-point fourth quarter but came up short as Tennessee goes to 3-0. Tennessee QB Casey Clausen played the best game of his young career going 18-38 for 308 yards and scored twice. The biggest part of the game was Tennessee’s dominating line play. They physically outplayed LSU resulting in an eleven-minute advantage in time of possession.
Central Florida At #8 Virginia Tech –24
What I Said:
Virginia Tech has outscored their first three opponents 133-10. Central Florida is 0-9 all-time versus ranked opponents but is coming off an upset victory over Tulane. QB Ryan Schneider was 20-for-29 and 338 yards against the Green Wave and will be the Hokies first glimpse of a great quarterback in a system built for his strengths. Central Florida played Clemson and Syracuse tough on the road and should be able to put up some points on Virginia Tech. However, the Hokies have a very powerful ground game and QB Grant Noel is starting to grasp the offensive scheme. Virginia Tech will win this one by 25.
What Happened:
Central Florida coughed up the ball five times and Virginia Tech scored touchdowns on all of them en route to a 46-14 victory. Hokie QB Grant Noel finished with modest numbers, going 15-25 for 170 yards and two fumbles. However, the Virginia Tech special teams’ and the defense scored 16 points and UCF was held to 0.9 yards/att. on the ground. It was not as pretty as the score suggests, but the Hokies are now 4-0, without Suggs and Vick.
Clemson At #9 Georgia Tech –11
What I Said:
Georgia Tech plays its ACC opener as they host Clemson on Saturday. Last season Yellow Jacket QB George Godsey threw for 454 yards in a 31-28 last second victory. The 3-0 start is the best for Georgia Tech since the 1990 national championship season, when they were 11-0-1. Godsey is playing extremely well of late. He has only played in the first half of the last two games but he was a combined 22 of 25 for 380 yards and leads the nation in pass-efficiency with 197.1. The Ramblin’ Wreck is ranked 5th in the nation for total defense allowing only one touchdown per contest. Each of the last five meetings between the teams have been decided by exactly three points, including four straight wins by Georgia Tech. Nine of the last eleven games have been decided by four points or fewer. Tiger QB Woody Dantzler committed three turnovers in their upset loss to Virginia last week and will be looking to redeem himself as will the rest of the team. Georgia Tech will win this one on the strength of Godsey and his ability to accurately run a complicated offense. Clemson should keep it close because of Dantzler’s capability to make big plays and coach Tommy Bowden’s scheming. Yellow Jackets will win this one by six in another down to the wire finish.
What Happened:
In one of the many close games this weekend, Clemson defeats Georgia Tech 47-44 in overtime. Clemson had previously lost four straight and looked to be well on their way to losing again twice during this one. The first came on the final play of the first half. Tiger QB Woody Dantzler scrambled around in the pocket before jetting off down the seam to score on a 38-yard run pulling Clemson to within five. Then, trailing 38-34 with 2:15 left in the fourth quarter, Clemson faced a 4th and 13 on their own 37-yard line. Woody found a wide-open Chris Young racing down the middle and hit him for a 63-yard touchdown. Georgia Tech would battle back behind George Godsey’s arm. However, Woody again made a play in overtime as he raced right up the middle from the eleven-yard line for the win. He played better than he has all year going 18-32 for 254 yards and two scores. He added two more touchdowns on the ground and led the team with 25 carries for 164 yards. Godsey played well for the Yellow Jackets throwing for 216-yards and two touchdowns. Clemson came up with more big plays and pulled of an upset to get right back in the chase for the ACC title
#12 UCLA –3.5 At #19 Oregon State
What I Said:
Oregon State will entertain UCLA at the friendly confines of home in Corvallis, Oregon. Head coach Dennis Erickson is 3-0 versus the Bruins and is looking to regain his team’s status from last year as one of the nation’s most prominent programs. The problem is they got smacked by Fresno State and barley got over on lowly New Mexico State. They are not clicking on offense and their defense has allowed 66 points in two games. To make matters worse, starting Strong Safety Calvin Carlyle will miss the remainder of the year due to a shoulder injury. Now looking back to last season, the Beavers are not a team that gets out of the blocks quickly. They barley got passed their first two games, beating Eastern Washington 21-19 and New Mexico 28-20 before heading to their first ever Fiesta Bowl game. They may be a slow-starter but they will lose regardless, when the Bruins come calling. Oregon escaped with a 44-38 win last year despite a career-high 363 yards from Bruin QB Cory Paus. Things are different this time around. UCLA’s defense has only allowed 40 points in their first three games and has proven they can win a big game on the road with a victory at Alabama. Beaver QB Jonathan Smith will need RB Ken Simonton to gain some yardage on the ground in order to open his passing attack. Oregon State is not the team of last year and UCLA is out to prove they can once again play with the big boys. UCLA will get by Oregon State by 7.
What Happened:
Self-touted Heisman Trophy winner Ken Simonton was held to 26 yards on 13 carries as Oregon State was pummeled by UCLA, 38-7. The Bruin defense held strong an allowed only 106 yards passing and clearly dominated a once-potent offense. Cory Paus played another mistake-free game going 12-for-24 for 216 yards and two scores. DeShaun Foster and the Bruin offensive line controlled the game as he ran the ball 31 times for 147 yards as they kept the ball nearly eleven minutes longer than Oregon State. The Bruins are the only team in the nation that has wins over the Pac-10, Big 10, Big 12 and SEC this season and they go to 4-0 as Washington comes to town next week.
Louisiana Tech At #10 Fresno State –21.5
What I Said:
In four games, Fresno State QB David Carr has thrown for 1,092 yards and 10 touchdowns all while leading to their highest ranking ever. They will host a team that lost nine games last season and is coming off a loss to Oklahoma State. Tech is better than they were last year, but not good enough to overtake Pat Hill’s squad. I do not think there is a defense in the country that can handle Carr and his teammates and Louisiana Tech is no exception. This could be a high scoring game as Tech Sophomore QB Luke McCown can throw. However, this is Fresno State’s year and they will continue their quest for a BCS bid in a 25-point win.
What Happened:
Fresno State RB Paris Gaines rushed for a career-high 203 yards on 27 carries as Fresno State stayed unbeaten. QB David Carr also had another big night going 26-of-42 for 319 yards and two scores, including one on the ground in the 38-28 victory. Louisiana Tech QB Luke McCown kept his team close as he went 30-for-58 for 313 yards and two touchdowns. The game was tied going into the second half before Fresno State outscored Louisiana Tech 17-7 in the last two quarters to go 5-0 for the year. The game was closer than expected and may hurt Fresno State in the BCS polls.
#13 Washington –14.5 At California
What I Said:
Last year Washington had to rally from eleven points down in the fourth quarter to beat the Golden Bears. California has given up 139 points and 1464 yards in three losses and has not been close to an opponent so far. That will not change and the success they had last season against a sleepy Husky team will turn to failure. California is facing a team that has scored 43 points on special teams and is averaging two picks a game. Husky BQ Cody Pickett has yet to through a touchdown this year and is looking to fire off on California. Washington should have no problem with an under-achieving Golden Bears team and win by 28.
What Happened:
Cody Pickett completed 18 of 33 passes for 291 yards and two touchdowns as Washington rallied for a 31-28 victory over California. The Golden Bears led Washington 21-10 at halftime headed by QB Kyle Boller who ended with career best four touchdowns. Boller finished 21-of-36 for 265 yards but could not overcome Washington’s comeback. Cal goes 0-4 for the first time since 1980.
Alabama At #15 South Carolina –6.5
What I Said:
South Carolina has never beaten the Crimson Tide and look to erase that statistic in Columbia on Saturday. Alabama comes in to town after spanking Arkansas 30-10 including two scores on defense. QB Tyler Watts has a 135.7 QB ranking and will have a stable of running backs that combine for 168 yards/game on the ground. However, the Gamecock defense is allowing a mere 12 points/game and has never played better. South Carolina is coming off two straight in-conference road wins and is in full stride. Sound familiar? Last year Lou Holtz was 4-0 heading into a game against Alabama and came out with their first loss of the year 27-17. QB Phil Petty missed the first half of that game for Lou with a sprained ankle, but came in the second half and threw two big ones. He is healthy this year and is completing 64% of his passes with no picks as of yet. I think he will be the difference as Lou gets his third straight SEC win by 4.
What Happened:
South Carolina beat Alabama for the first time ever and they did so by coming back from a twelve-point deficit with 9:01 remaining. Gamecock QB Phil Petty completed his last seven tosses, including a game-winning seven-yard pass to TE Rod Trafford for the 37-36 win. Petty was brilliant finishing with three touchdowns and completing 19 of 33 attempts for 291 yards. The South Carolina defense was victimized for 516 total yards. Crimson Tide QB Tyler Watts finished 20 of 25 for 231 yards through the air and 22 attempts for 162 yards on the ground. It was not enough as the Gamecock defense came up big opportunistic plays, despite the yardage gained. Alabama fumbled the ball seven times; losing two of them as their offense was disrupted in key drives. South Carolina starts out 4-0 and sets their sites on an October 27th matchup with Tennessee.
Wake Forest At #18 Florida State –24
What I Said:
Back to Tallahassee come the Seminoles after their horrid performance last week, to take on 2-1 Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons are coming off of their first loss of the season in a 27-20 setback to Maryland. They gave up 519 total yards and may be just the thing FSU needs to get back on track. QB Chris Rix really needs the help, as he was only 8-for-21 for 112 yards and two fumbles last week. FSU will get back on track and whip Wake Forest by 30. Did anyone see the trash talking North Carolina was doing at the end of Saturday’s game? Let me be the first to predict next season’s game in Tallahassee: FSU 55 UNC 3. Fools.
What Happened:
FSU quarterback Chris Rix threw for 345 yards going 16 of 21 as the Seminoles regained some respect beating Wake Forest 48-24. Rix had 262 yards and three touchdowns by halftime as Florida State raced to a 42-14 lead at intermission. FSU’s defense has still not solved their problems, giving up 432 yards and 26 first downs. They do extend their unbeaten streak of 54 at Doak Cambell Stadium dating back to a 1991 loss to Miami. The Hurricanes come back to town in two weeks.
#22 Illinois At #17 Michigan -7
What I Said:
Last year Michigan squeaked by the Illini 35-31 scoring with 2:30 remaining. Kurt Kittner was amazing, throwing for 352 yards and two scores and looks to better that this time around. Illinois has seven interceptions, twelve sacks, and leads the nation with a plus-10 turnover ratio. The road team has won each of the last two contests and Illinois is poised after a brilliant 34-10 performance over Louisville last week. Kittner and the rest of the offense will challenge a Wolverine defense, which has allowed nearly 800 yards throw the air this year. Michigan’s defense needs to have a huge day in order to stop Kittner. The key in this game will be Michigan’s ability to run the ball with B.J. Askew, who rushed for 112 yards last week. In addition, they will be playing at the "Big House" in Ann Arbor and it will provide enough of a spark to lead to a three point Michigan victory.
What Happened:
Michigan used trick plays including a double-pass, a halfback pass by Walter Cross, and a reverse to get their offense going. It worked as they stomped Illinois 42-20 and start out their run for the Big 10 championship unblemished. Illinois was held to just 25-yards on the ground and could not muster up the comeback to mimic last year’s game. Illini QB Kurt Kittner went 20-39 for 244 yards but it was not enough to give Illinois their first 4-0 start in fifty years.
#23 Michigan State At #16 Northwestern –6.5
What I Said:
Northwestern showed the nation what could happen when they open up their playbook as they did against Duke last week. They piled up 638 yards and 44-points. However, the Spartans are not Duke. Northwestern will need another great performance to knock off a very confident Spartan team. Last year Northwestern went into Lansing and knocked off MSU 37-17. It will be closer this season as the Spartan defense is playing much better and the platoon system at quarterback between Jeff Smoker and Ryan Van Dyke seems to be working for them. The biggest problem MSU had last season against N’western was their 0-12 third down conversions. They will need a solution and coach Bobby Williams thinks he has found it in the form of Sophomore Charles Rogers. He caught the game-winning touchdown against the Irish last week to convert a third down and 10. The Spartans should play tough and run the ball well against Northwestern’s smaller defensive front, but they will not be able to hold the Wildcat offensive threats. In two games, QB Zak Kustok has thrown for 542 yards and Damien Anderson has 374 all-purpose yards to lead the way. It is too much firepower and Northwestern will outscore Michigan State by ten.
What Happened:
Wildcat K David Wasielewski booted a 47-yard field goal as time expired to give his team a 27-26 victory over Michigan State in the Big Ten opener for both teams. Northwestern is 3-0 for the first time since 1962 and start off their conference play with a bang. QB Zak Kustok ran 15 times for 105 yards and a score, but the big plays came from his arm. He went 23-40 for 231 yards including the 54-yard planned tip pass to Jon Schweighardt in order to set-up the game-winning field goal. MSU lost 66 yards in penalties and missed three field goals in sloppy play to let Northwestern hang around. It turned out to be their doom as they lose for the first time this year.
#20 BYU –7 At UNLV
What I Said:
UNLV has given up 75-points in their last two losses to Northwestern and Arizona and play a BYU team averaging a nation’s best 55.3 points/game. BYU is averaging 606 yards per game and UNLV’s defense is allowing 420.5 yds/game in their last two. BYU is 3-0, UNLV is 0-3. See where this is going? This should be a high-scoring game with both teams able to light up the scoreboard, but BYU is playing too big and UNLV has yet to live up to the preseason hype. The Cougars will win this one by 14 and start the season 4-0 for the first time since 1993.
What Happened:
BYU remained flawless outlasting UNLV to win 35-31 Saturday night. It marked the second time in four games that the Rebels have lost in a last minute drive. UNLV opened up a 21-10 first quarter lead before QB Brandan Doman rallied the Cougars. He threw for two touchdowns and 281 yards going 23-of-37 as BYU starts out 4-0. UNLV star Jason Thomas continues to struggle, as does his 0-4 team. The quarterback threw two interceptions and totaled only 127 combined yards.
#24 Purdue –4 At Minnesota
What I Said:
Drew Brees has been a hard act to follow but Freshman Brandon Hance is doing his best for Purdue. Hance has lead Purdue to a top 25 ranking and a 2-0 record heading into their Big 10-conference opener Saturday in Minneapolis. He has a QB rating of 110.6 and is helped by an attacking defense that has already picked off five passes in just two games. Purdue beat the Gophers last season 38-24 riding a 409-yard performance by Drew Brees. Although their superstar quarterback is gone, plenty of ammunition remains in Coach Joe Tiller’s arsenal. Minnesota started off rocky as they fell to Toledo 38-7. Now they seem to have settled on Travis Cole to lead the team and Coach Glen Mason is confident about their chances to upset Purdue. It is not going to happen. The Boilermaker defense is now just as good if not better than the offense. They also have a running game that has allowed RB Sophomore Joey Harris is averaging 10.5 yards a carry. Joe Tiller will head his team to a 10-point victory and he will leave Minneapolis undefeated in Big 10 openers.
What Happened:
The unbelievable happened to Minnesota. They watched an eleven point lead slip away in the final minutes to drop a hard-fought game 35-28 in overtime. Purdue quarterback Brandon Hance started the final drive of the game inside on his own three-yard line with 18 seconds left and no timeouts. Minnesota was celebrating as Hance went to work. Two plays and 63-yards later, Purdue kicked a game-tying fieldgoal with one second left to send it into overtime. Hance then hit John Standeford for the winning touchdown and kept the Boilermakers undefeated. Hance finished with a touchdown receiving and three in the air as he went 22 of 36 for 308 yards. Minnesota TB Tellis Redmon had 132 of his 152 yards rushing in the first half. Purdue’s defense then clamped down and helped to continue to defend their Big 10 Championship.
Northern Illinois At #25 Toledo –18
What I Said:
NIU played Toledo tough last season. The Rockets prevailed, 38-24, but the game was in doubt until late in the fourth quarter. Toledo RB Chester Taylor rushed for a career-high 230 yards and two touchdowns for UT. Taylor had 164 yards and a career-high five TD’s in the Central Michigan win last week. The Huskies will counter Taylor’s efforts with RB Thomas Hammock who has rushed for 440 yards in three games after gaining over 1,000 yards last year as a sophomore. Northern Illinois will give Toledo all they can handle and the game will again be decided in the fourth quarter. Toledo is poised for a MAC championship and will win this slugfest by 7.
What Happened:
Husky RB Thomas Hammock was held to just ten yards on as many carries losing to Toledo 41-20. Rockets RB Chester Taylor had a better day running 32 times for 132 yards and three touchdowns as Toledo goes 4-0. They also received a nice performance from Tavares Bolden who completed 21 of 30 attempts for 254 yards. Toledo is now the highest they have been any poll since an 18th ranking by the AP in 1997.
This Week’s Top 25 Matchups
Troy State At #1 Miami –52
Miami hosts Florida State next week so look for a vanilla offensive scheme against the Trojans. Hurricane quarterback Ken Dorsey has been amazing so far this year and the only question he has going into this game is how long he will play. He is currently ranked third in the nation for pass efficiency with a 195.9 rating. Troy State comes to town giving up an average of 35 points per game, which should be matched in the first half by Miami. Look for the starters to sit the second half out in preparation for the trip to Tallahassee. Miami by 44.
#2 Florida –11.5 At #18 LSU
Normally, a double-digit favorite against a top twenty opponent is a rarity. Nothing new for Florida, as they were favored by sixteen against Mississippi State a week ago. Gator QB Rex Grossman is playing better football than anyone in the country and Florida’s defense is very underrated. They rank #1 in scoring defense (7.5 ppg) and are allowing only 53 yards/game on the ground. Their offense is not too shabby either, as they are #1 in scoring offense, passing offense and total offense. Grossman is going for a fifth straight 300+ game and is starting to be mentioned in the Heisman race. LSU needs to come out strong to hold off a Florida team averaging 31 points in the first half. The Gators are 12-1 against LSU since 1988 and 5-1 at Tiger Stadium. The last time LSU defeated Florida was 28-21 in 1997 led by QB Herb Tyler. Florida crushed the Bayou Bengals in Gainesville 41-9 a year ago as Grossman tossed three touchdowns to WR Jabar Gaffney in his first career start. LSU’s secondary was burned badly by Tennessee a week ago as they were bunching up to stop RB Travis Stephens. Confidence will be a factor for the LSU defense facing the aggressive approach of Steve Spurrier’s high-powered offense. Florida’s defense is enough to cause Tiger QB Rohan Davey problems and Grossman should have a huge day en route to his fifth straight 300-yard performance. LSU will come out emotional playing in front of a home crowd but Florida has two many players and will be able to dominate in a twenty-point victory.
#3 Oklahoma At #5 Texas –3
Texas has been waiting for this for a long time. Losing a rivalry 63-14 has not been readily forgotten. It will be the first ranked opponent for the Longhorns and the second time in as many weeks OU will face a top-ten team. The Red River Shootout could be for a shot at the Sears Trophy (it will be displayed at the game), as the winner of this game will surely be considered as a serious contender for the title. Texas ranks last in the Big XXII against the pass, giving up over 200 yards per game. If Sooner gunman Nate Hybl gets hot, it could be another long day for the burnt orange faithful. Coach Mack Brown has yet to win a really big game at Texas and Chris Simms hasn’t proven himself at QB. Oklahoma will be looking for their first back-to-back wins against Texas since 1987-1988 and their nation leading 17th victory in a row. Look for Texas to come out and play a zone defense to try and keep OU away from the big plays that led to a school-record nine touchdowns last year. Bob Stoops has proven he can win huge games and his defense is still playing well, scoring in six of their last seven games. They gave up plenty of yards last week hosting KSU, but most of them came off of Wildcat QB Ell Roberson’s running threat. Chris Simms will not run the option and will be facing the most aggressive defense he has seen since his 11-for-23 for 63-yard performance opposite Oklahoma last season. Texas has all the pieces in place to beat the Sooners this time around. RB Ivan Williams is averaging 5.6 yards per carry, they return eight players on defense including All-American CB Quentin Jammer, and they have a quarterback that is supposed to lead the Longhorns to a national championship. However, it will not be enough to stop the brilliant big game coaching of Bob Stoops and his staff. I went against Oklahoma last week, but no doubts this time. The scare KSU gave them may be just what the Sooners needed to regain a swagger that has been missing thus far. Oklahoma will edge Texas by a field goal and may cause "We Want Major" chants amongst impatient Horn fans.
Iowa State At #4 Nebraska –24
The undefeated Cyclones come into Lincoln with upset notions and top-25 aspirations. They are led by Junior QB Senaca Wallace, who has been compared to Husker QB Eric Crouch by Nebraska players. He is a dual threat averaging 9 yards/carry and boasts a 160.7 quarterback rating. The Iowa States offense ranks 8th in the nation at 468 yards per game but will face the Blackshirts who rank 2nd nationally in total defense. Something will have to give and Crouch, who is finally hitting form, is ready. He leads his team into their 96th matchup against Iowa State. Crouch is averaging 109 yards rushing/game and has a 151.3 quarterback rating. Iowa State has not allowed a single point scored on them…at home. However, during their first road game at Ohio (0-3) they gave up 28 points, including 285 yards on the ground. They were 4-0 last season when Nebraska came to Ames and dropped 41-points and a loss on them. I think they are a better team this year, but Nebraska is starting to play more consistent. Oh yeah, it’s also in Lincoln. Eric Crouch should have another nice game and Nebraska’s defense will collar Wallace in a 27-point victory.
Georgia At #6 Tennessee –12
Tennessee is allowing a mere 41 yds/game on the ground and heads into Saturday’s game with revenge on their mind. They lost last year in Athens 21-10 as Georgia held Volunteer RB Travis Stephens to 22-yards on nine carries. Georgia brings Redshirt Freshman David Greene, who has thrown for 752 yards in three games, into Knoxville. Complementing Greene will be 212lb Sophomore TB Musa Smith who has ran for nearly five yards on each of his 67 carries thus far. It will be of monumental importance to run a balanced offense in order to keep Tennessee’s rush honest. Tennessee seemed to have problems with LSU last week when they went into a two-minute drill and Bulldog Coach Mark Richt will try to use that to his advantage. The former offensive coordinator of Florida State will play his first game as Georgia coach on the road in front of over 100,000 fans. The Volunteers have ten sacks and have forced six turnovers in three games. Tennessee’s defense should recover from the 356-yard achievement by Rohan Davey and look for them to come after Georgia’s young quarterback. They will also pick on converted running back now cornerback, Bruce Thornton, and stay away from the other side, where All-SEC Tim Wansley looms. South Carolina victimized Thornton on the Gamecock’s winning touchdown pass three weeks ago. Tennessee is too strong at home and will shut Greene down in a 10-point victory.
#7 Oregon –6 At Arizona
Last year Oregon slipped by Arizona 14-10 in the friendly confines of home as they were held to a season-low 260-yards of total offense. The Ducks will play with their top two wide receivers, Keenan Howry (ribs) and Jason Willis (concussion) banged up, and will surely be without #3 TB Allan Amundson (ankle), who is also their top kickoff returner. Arizona is depending on their junior signal-caller Jason Johnson to pull off the upset. However, he will be facing an Oregon defense, which has intercepted nine balls already this year. Johnson has thrown for 911 yards and seven touchdowns and has a better completion percentage than his counterpart, Joey Harrington. I think Oregon is walking into a trap as they have yet to play like a top-ten team. First-year coach John Mackovic should have plenty of tricks and gimmicks up his sleeve. The problem is Mackovic was forced out of Texas and Kansas City because he could not win enormous conference games. Look for Arizona to come out strong at home and take a nice lead into halftime. However, Joey Harrington has taken his team to eight fourth quarter comebacks and he will do it again. Oregon will win in a shootout by three points to and take a 5-0 record back to Eugene.
#8 Virginia Tech –15 At West Virginia
This is the Hokies’ first decent test of the year and it could not come at a more appropriate time. Virginia Tech is playing better than ever right now, scoring with every aspect of their attack. The Hokies have recorded a blocked punt and a defensive touchdown in each of the last two games. They have allowed only 24-points this year and 176 yards/game. The best part of this team is the running game, which is averaging 252 yards/game. However, none of those statistics mean much as they have not played a team in the top-50. Enter West Virginia. Senior QB Brad Lewis, who has thrown for 882-yards heads the Mountaineers. Just when it looked as though he had the new offense down, he had a dismal game last week against Maryland throwing for only five-yards/attempt and four interceptions. West Virginia needs a breakout performance from TB Avon Cobourne who has rushed for 544-yards averaging 4.5yds/att. Look for Virginia Tech to shut Cobourne down and limit the effectiveness of the spread offense with multiple zone-blitzes. Virginia Tech will continue to roll in a 20-point pounding.
USC At #11 Washington –5.5
USC has lost their last three games by a total of eleven points and face a Washington team with growing confidence. Highly touted Trojan QB Carson Palmer has thrown for 1061 yards thus far, but has also had five picks in his last two losses. He has not been helped much by RB Sultan McCullough who has just 103-yards on 54 carries in those three losses. Washington has forced two turnovers in each of their first three games and has not allowed a rushing touchdown all year. The Huskies have learned not to overlook teams and Rick Neuheisel will have the Huskies ready. However, USC is due for a win and will stay with Washington throughout the game. The home-field advantage will be a factor and Cody Pickett grew up in the come-from-behind victory on the road last week. It will be enough to withstand the Trojans thirst for a Pac-10 victory, as Washington stays unbeaten with a 7-point win.
Colorado At #12 Kansas State –10
KSU’s sophomore QB Ell Roberson had the best game of his young career in last week’s one-point loss to Oklahoma and has emerged as the leader Bill Snyder has been looking for. He averages 81 yds/game on the ground, and trails only Nebraska’s Eric Crouch and Clemson’s Woody Dantzler for rushing yards by a quarterback. He also threw for 257 yards on just twelve completions last week to mount the Wildcat comeback. Kansas State opponents are averaging a mere 1.56 yards/att. and have forced five interceptions. Something has to give as Colorado is hammering opponents with a great 1-2 punch in halfbacks Chris Brown and Bobby Purify. They have combined for 715 yards and nine touchdowns while QB Craig Ochs is starting to gain a better grasp the offense. He has thrown for 835-yards and bolstered his team to a three-game winning streak after losing their season opener to Fresno State. Add the debut of TB Marcus Houston coming back this week and their offense gets even scarier. This just in, it will not be enough! Look for Wildcat RB Josh Scobey and Roberson to get off on the Colorado defense with their five-pronged option attack. KSU will also shut down the Buffs rushing game and force Ochs to throw into a secondary that picked off three passes against the Sooners. KSU wins this one by 17 and sets its sites on Texas Tech.
Kentucky At #13 South Carolina –22.5
South Carolina is believing in themselves. They were outplayed last week but never allowed themselves to give up. This is the turning point in many teams’ seasons. Already they have battled back in two games this year, came out victorious, and take a
4-0 record into Saturday’s matchup against Kentucky. The Wildcats have allowed 86-points in their last two games and is playing on the road for the first time this year. Kentucky has yet to announce who their starting quarterback will be. Jared Lorenzen is a pure drop-back passer and Shane Boyd is a scrambler. It won’t matter as Kentucky is only averaging 169 yds/game passing in an air-it-out offense. South Carolina is over the defensive lapse hosting Alabama and will be ready to shut down Kentucky’s offense. South Carolina will win this one by 20-points and go to 5-0 for the first time since 1988.
#14 Northwestern At Ohio State –2.5
Northwestern is chasing their first 4-0 start since 1962 under the helm of coach Ara Parseghian. They are also hoping to break a 21-game losing streak at the hands of the Buckeyes. They bring two great athletes to the table: QB Zak Kustok and RB Damien Anderson. It seems that one of these two always perform in big games and this is no exception. Ohio State is still trying to find a passing game but their rushing ability is a formidable one. Senior Jonathon Wells leads the team with 235 yards and 4.1 yds/att. however, there has been the emergence of a game-breaker. Seventeen-year-old true Freshman Lydell Ross came into the first series in the Indiana game and ended up carrying the ball 25 times for 124 yards and a pair of scores. QB Steve Bellisari has been the question mark so far in Coach Jim Tressel’s offense. In their sole test this season against UCLA, Bellisari went 5-for-23 for 45 yards and two picks. This is a ball-control team with an opportunistic defensive unit, which is the #2 scoring defense in the Big 10 and has already caused nine fumbles. Northwestern’s defense is not too shabby either forcing nine turnovers and using a bend but don’t break attitude. Kustok is a gamer and somehow Northwestern finds a way to pullout tough games. It will come down to quarterback play where the Wildcats have a tremendous advantage and will win by six, again in the fourth quarter.
#15 Michigan -10 At Penn State
Penn State is last in the Big 10 in total offense. Penn State is last in the Big 10 in total defense. This may get ugly. Averaging only 46 rushing yards/game, Penn State has yet to find any offensive threat. Couple that with a Michigan defense allowing only 2.0 yds/att. and Penn State entertains serious trouble of starting out 0-4 for the first time in Nittany Lions’ history. Unfortunately for JoePa, it will happen as the Wolverines will win by 20.
#17 Georgia Tech –24 At Duke
The Yellow Jackets are ready to take out their frustrations with last week’s loss to Clemson on the hapless 0-4 Blue Devils. Georgia Tech has won ten of the last eleven games against Duke including a 45-10 thump last season. George Godsey has the nation’s 2nd leading pass efficiency with 180.4 rating. They should be ready to throttle Duke en route to a 28-point victory before they concentrate on next week’s showdown with ACC frontrunner, Maryland.
Utah State At #20 BYU –19.5
BYU heads into Friday night’s contest with a nation leading 50.3 points per game. The Cougars are looking to go 5-0 for the first time since 1984, but have done so against winless opponents. In order to get a glimpse of national attention; BYU must dispose of every team on their schedule convincingly. Utah State may be 0-4, but they are averaging 413 yds/game in total offense. The problem lies in allowing 33 ppg. BYU is not as good as their record shows and Utah State as not as bad as their record shows. Led by QB Brandon Doman (265 yds/game and 9 TD’s) the Cougars should overcome another Aggies’ gutsy effort by 17.
Iowa At #21 Purdue –3
Iowa comes into to West Lafayette undefeated at 3-0 in their first test of the year. The key of that record seems to be a defense that has created six turnovers and nine sacks thus far. Offensively, they are led by senior QB Kyle McCann who has thrown for 591 yards with only one interception. Purdue comes off a miracle finish in Minneapolis to defend their Big 10 title. During the rally last week, Redshirt Freshman QB Brandon Hance grew up as he went 11-of-13 for 134 yards and two touchdowns in Purdue’s final three drives. Iowa has played well but they have yet to be challenged by a good team. Not only will they be challenged; they will be beaten at the hands of Joe Tiller’s Boilermakers by ten.
#23 Toledo –12.5 At Ohio
Ohio runs the option out of their Multiple I-offense and it can be tricky to defend. Unfortunately for the Bobcats, Toledo ranks #1 in the MAC at stopping the run, allowing only 52.8 ypg. The Rockets are led by standout RB Chester Taylor who ranks first in the nation in scoring with 21 pts/game and is third in rushing, averaging 145.3 yards per contest. Ohio is 0-3 and looking for a spark to get their season going in the right direction. Toledo is a very solid program and should tear the Bobcats apart. Remember, this is the same Toledo team that beat Minnesota 38-7. The Rockets will continue to soar in a 17-point win.
Baylor At #24 Texas A&M –25
Texas A&M quietly has stayed undefeated and the wrecking crew continues to shut opponents down. They may come out a bit lethargic after a big win over Notre Dame and a matchup against Colorado next week but Baylor has nothing to challenge even a complacent Aggie team. Texas A&M has recorded six sacks in each of the last two games and continue to pace their season. Baylor is averaging only 13.3 points per game and College Station is no place to find an offense. TAMU by 28.
Virginia At #25 Maryland –8
Maryland is looking for sole possession of first place in the ACC. Sophomore TB Bruce Perry averages 169 yds/game and boasts a 6.9-yard average leading the Terrapins to a 4-0 record. Maryland’s defense has also answered the bell, intercepting ten passes and holding opponents to 12 ppg. Virginia is also in the hunt as they are coming off of consecutive ACC wins over Clemson and Duke. Al Groh has found his quarterback in Bryson Spinner who has started the year off with a 139.3 quarterback rating. The difference in this game will come on the ground. Can Virginia hold Perry back? No. Virginia is giving up 183.3 yds/game on the ground and Bruce Perry will dominate. However, Groh has Virginia playing with confidence and that should make things interesting. But Maryland is playing too well and should win by a touchdown.