Please take a moment to visit our sponsor's banner above! This helps us to pay for server fees. Thanks!
Brunson: Weekly Top 25 Previews
UHND.com - Joe Brunson
11/15/2001
How Am I Doing?
Last Week’s Games Overall
12-11 (52.2%) ATS 100-66 (60.2%) ATS
18-5 (78.3%) Straight-up 140-26 (84.3%) Straight-up
Top 25 Matchups
#13 Syracuse (8-2) At #2 Miami -21.5 (8-0) 3:30pm ET
Syracuse has won eight straight games with an opportunistic defense, since starting the year 0-2. The Orangemen have a plus-16 turnover ratio and DE Dwight Sweeney has recorded 16.5 sacks this season which breaks last year’s record held by Julius Peppers. Offensively, Syracuse gained only 206 yards in their win over West Virginia last week, but has been led by RB James Mungro throughout their win streak. Mungro has rushed for 811 yards and 12 touchdowns in the eight games. Miami comes in looking to continue their quest for roses. They will play a ranked opponent for only the 2nd time all year, but finish the season off opposite three ranked foes. QB Ken Dorsey had his worst effort of the season in the victory at Boston College. He threw four interceptions and completed less than half of his throws. Miami typically plays a very balanced offense, which opens the ground game. RB Clinton Portis busted the century mark five times thus far and knocks out 5.4 yards/attempt. Neither team breaks through the gate quickly, however, the Orangemen must do better than they did last week. Syracuse went three-and-out on nine of its first twelve possessions and punted 11 times. Miami has beaten the Orangemen 71-13 in their last two meetings. Look for the Hurricanes to come out blazing after their poor performance at Boston College. Dorsey should be back on his game and with Syracuse ranked 59th in rush defense, Clinton Portis may shine as well. Miami by 20.
#20 Florida State (6-3) At #3 Florida –15 (8-1) 8:00pm ET
Not only is Florida the best offense in the country, but they also boast the ninth best defense in the nation. Their offense gets most of the accolades, but DE Alex Brown (Lombardi Award Finalist) knows otherwise. Florida has allowed more than 17 points only one time this season (23 in the loss to Auburn) and yield only 76.5 yards/game on the ground. Florida State is exactly opposite when it comes to stopping an opponent. They give up 25 ppg. while allowing over 335 yards/game. Chris Rix seems to be understanding the ‘Nole offense better but has still thrown at least one pick in seven straight games. In order for an upset, RB Greg Jones needs to play big. He has gained 376 yards in the past four games and has a 5.8-yard average for the season. If he can get going, it will take much pressure off Rix. Back to FSU’s real problem- Rex Grossman and the Gator offense. At South Carolina, Florida scored on ten straight possessions. Grossman’s leading target is Jabar Gaffney. He has caught 56 balls for 1,025 yards with 11 touchdowns. Florida State is trying to avoid their first four-loss season since 1986, while Florida hopes to earn their 12th straight nine-win season (SEC record). Look for Florida’s offense to slice up the Seminole secondary. If FSU brings in extra d-backs, Earnest Graham may have a huge day. Florida State won’t even come close in this one. Rix is still a year away from becoming an elite player while the ‘Nole defenders are about to find out why Florida is averaging 45 points/game. Gators by 24.
#4 Oklahoma –7.5 (9-1) At Texas Tech (6-3) 3:30pm ET
Oklahoma could be running into a buzz saw when they visit Lubbock on Saturday. The Red Raider offense has amassed an average of 424 yards/game while running a very similar offense to the Sooners. QB Kliff Klingsbury leads Tech by throwing for 2,902 yards and 18 scores. Since their loss to Nebraska, Klingsbury has tossed for 988 yards with six touchdowns in three victories. Defensively, Tech has been inconsistent. They held Texas A&M scoreless, then allowed Oklahoma State to gain 345 yards and pile up 30 points. The Sooners are looking to find congruity within their offense. However, defensively Oklahoma still dominates. They held the Aggies to just 133 yards and give up an average of just over 13 points/game. The offenses are remarkably similar; hence, the edge must go to Oklahoma’s 3rd ranked defense. Look for OU to shut down Klingsbury and by that I mean keep him under 250 yards passing. Offensively, the Sooners have shown they are getting better each game. The X-factor will be playing without all-everything Andre Woolfolk. He has started every game at left cornerback and four games at flanker. If Klingsbury can exploit the secondary, the Sooners could be in trouble. But Roy Williams will be able to step up his game, so look for him to come up with a few key plays in a ten-point win for the Sooners.
#6 Tennessee –18.5 (7-1) At Kentucky (2-7) 12:30pm ET
Tennessee has beaten Kentucky 16 straight times and have scored over 50 points in the last five meetings. Bad news for the Wildcats, considering they allow 33 ppg. as it is. They also rank last in pass defense and 82nd against the run. Although they can’t stop anyone, they have shown the ability to light up the scoreboard with 56 against Vandy last week. QB Jared Lorenzen has thrown for 1,150 and 11 touchdowns in their last three games. The big question will be if Tennessee can stop Lorenzen. He should put up some more numbers, but without a chance to stop the Vols, Kentucky will come up short. Look for Travis Stephens to have a big day against a horrid defense and the re-emergence of Donte’ Stallworth will solidify an already potent receiving corps. The Wildcats have just played a three-game road trip and are back in Lexington. They should come out fired up with their recent explosion through the air. However, Tennessee is the total package and will come away with the 17-point win.
Utah (7-2) At #8 BYU –7 (10-0) 7:00pm ET
BYU can clinch the Mountain West Championship with a win in Provo. The Cougars’ leading receiver, Reno Mahe, will not play this Saturday due to an emergency appendectomy. That shouldn’t matter as BYU has many weapons to choose from and Luke Staley is a horse. The Utes will try to cut down BYU’s high-powered offense with the Mountain West's top defense. They rank ninth nationally in scoring defense (15.8 ppg) and 13th in total defense (296.2 ypg). Utah will need help from their ground game to stand a chance of pulling off the upset. The best defense against a great offense is time of possession. Utah has the weapons in their backfield to accomplish that. Dameon Hunter and Dalton Hughes have combined for 1,679 yards and 15 touchdowns this season. BYU may have gotten the scare they needed from Wyoming last weekend. Look for the Cougars to come out with a renewed sense of urgency. This game is a huge rivalry in the Mountain West, so it could come down to the wire. Look for BYU to reclaim their dominance in a 10-point win.
#9 Maryland –3 (9-1) At North Carolina State (6-3) 7:45pm ET
A victory at North Carolina State will allow Maryland to clinch their first undisputed ACC championship since 1985 and a berth in the Bowl Championship Series. North Carolina State shocked FSU in Tallahassee last week and look to keep the ball rolling in their favor. To do so, they must sure up their defense in a hurry. They rank 61st in run-defense. Enter Bruce Perry. With 1,151 yards, he leads the ACC in rushing. He has not gained over 100 yards since November 6 and is due for a big performance. The Terrapins have faced Chris Rix, Woody Dantzler, and George Godsey this season. Having said that, they should be prepared for the offensive threats Phillip Rivers may possess. Ralph Friedgen will have the boys ready. Maryland by a touchdown.
#10 Washington State –1.5 (9-1) At #14 Washington (7-2) 3:30pm ET
This version of the Apple Cup has major PAC-10 title implications. If Oregon State beats Oregon, a win by Washington would give the Huskies a share of the title while a win by the Cougars would give it to them outright. A major situation arising in Pullman is the status of QB Jason Gesser. He suffered a concussion in the ASU game, but was cleared to play on Wednesday. If he doesn’t come out 100%, the Cougars are in big trouble. Gesser has thrown for over 2,500 yards with 23 touchdowns this year. Last season, Washington went into Pullman and slapped State in a 51-3 laugher. Things look to be far different this season. Washington has needed to come from behind in the fourth quarter six times this year, while last week, they didn’t even show up. QB Cody Pickett only completed 40% of his throws, which contributed to the team converting a mere three 3rd down tries in fourteen attempts. In order to keep the Cougars’ offensive threats on the sidelines, Washington needs to develop a running attack that was stymied by the Beavers last week. William Hurst and Rich Alexis have to provide a bit of diversity in the offense to keep the pressure off a struggling Pickett. A huge advantage for the Huskies is playing in Seattle. Look for Washington to play well at home and stick around into the fourth quarter. However, the Cougars have more offense this time around and Washington is due to lose a close one. Washington State by a field goal.
#11 Michigan –4.5 (7-2) At Wisconsin (5-5) 3:30pm ET
By winning their last two games, Michigan could win the Big 10 and get a BCS invitation. However, they must travel to Madison first. Wisconsin has dropped two of their last three games while allowing 118 points and 1,516 yards. With no defense, they definitely show a major offense. The Badgers could become the first team in Big Ten history to have two 1,000-yard passers, a 1,000-yard rusher and 1,000-yard receiver in the same season. Brooks Bollinger just needs 114 more yards to make that happen.
Michigan seemed to get their defense back on track after the pounding T.J. Duckett gave them. They held Minnesota to just 10 points and 90 yards under their season rushing average. Look for Wisconsin to come out fired up after a bye week. They need this victory to get a chance at a bowl bid. But the Wolverines are well rounded and will be able to slow down the Badger offensive attack. John Navarre should throw darts in a weak secondary en route to a 9-point win.
#12 Illinois (8-1) At Ohio State –3 (6-3) 12:10pm ET
With a bit of help (a Michigan loss), either team could clinch a Big 10 Championship. Illinois can clinch with a win over Ohio State and Northwestern, while the Buckeyes need this victory to set up a championship game with Michigan next week. Illinois must play without the efforts of their leading rusher, Antoineo Harris. He is gone for the year with a broken wrist. Kurt Kittner is throwing for just under 260 ypg and leads the Big 10 in passing. He has headed the Illini effort to five straight wins since their loss to Michigan. Steve Bellisari has played streaky throughout the year but seems to have grasped his game in the last two contests. The Buckeye QB has gone 26-of-37 for 466 yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions. Ohio State’s defense has played solid all year long but never better than their performance against Purdue. They held the Boilers to just 193 yards total offense and nine points. Illinois has come from behind to win back-to-back games and are playing with plenty of confidence right now. Bellisari can’t keep making the plays he is and Kittner will be able to stay cool enough in the pocket to win this game in the fourth quarter by a field goal.
California (0-9) At #15 Stanford –24 (6-2) 3:30pm ET
The Golden Bears and the Cardinal will meet for 104th time in "The Big Game." Chris Lewis will get his fourth straight start since Randy Fasani went down. During his last three games, he has thrown for 887 yards and eight scores. Not much has gone right for California. They are giving up over 42 points per game and scoring only 17. Normally that shouldn’t matter in this rivalry, but California hasn’t shown they can play with any caliber of team, let alone Stanford. The Cardinal will overcome an early show of emotion from Cal and go on to claim a 28-point victory.
#17 Virginia Tech –14.5 (7-2) At Virginia (4-6) 3:30pm ET
With a win, the Cavaliers can return the Commonwealth Cup to Charlottesville and add a nice end to an otherwise dismal season. Virginia prepared for this game by beating Georgia Tech last week and look to build on that performance. To pull off the upset, the Cavs will need a big game from Bryson Spinner. Last week he threw for 327 yards with five scores and ran for another 72. After back-to-back horrid performances, the Hokie offense finally got back on track. RB Kevin Jones gained 155 yards with two scores in their win last week. Grant Noel still hasn’t found his early season arm, but the defense is playing amongst the best in the country. Virginia is fielding a team with more confidence now than they have all year and should give Tech a challenge. In the end, the Hokie defense will prevail with help from a strong running game. V-Tech by 13.
Alabama (4-5) At #18 Auburn -3 (7-2) 3:30pm ET
With a win in the Iron Bowl, Auburn can clinch a birth in the SEC Championship game. Alabama’s offense has played well at times under the direction of Tyler Watts, but their defense has been suspect all year. They allowed Rohan Davey to throw for 528 yards and gave up 300 yards to an anemic Mississippi State offense. Due to the defenseless Tide, Auburn should be able to run with their tandem attack of Casinious Moore and Carnell Williams. If Alabama can shut them down it will be up to Daniel Cobb. He has played well at times, but with no supporting cast, Cobb will be shut down. If that happens, look for Jason Campbell to re-enter the QB picture. The Tide has played tough all year, despite their record. This game will be no different. However, the direction of the game will come in the Tigers’ ability to control the ball with their running game. Auburn by 6.
#19 Louisville (9-1) At East Carolina –2 (6-3) 7:30pm ET Thursday
The winner will clinch the Conference USA title and a berth in the Liberty Bowl. Louisville’s Dave Ragone has thrown for 2,405 yards, but it is the Cardinal defense that has been stealing the show. They rank 7th nationally in points allowed (14.2) and have held their last two opponents to just 127 yards on the ground. East Carolina is riding a four-game winning streak and looks to win the conference title for the first time ever. They are led by Leonard Henry, who is averaging 8.7 yards/attempt with 1,273 yards on the year. He busted through the Bearcats last week for 234 yards and 3 scores. If Louisville shuts him down, the Pirate hopes will turn to David Garrard. He has played consistently, but needs the running game to open the allies for his arm. Louisville will be able to slow Henry down just enough to get the win on the strength of Ragone’s decision-making skills. Louisville by a touchdown.
#21 UCLA –3.5 (6-3) At USC (5-5) 3:30pm ET
While UCLA is trying to overcome a three-game losing streak, the Trojans are just finding their stride. They have won three in a row, scoring over 40 points twice during that span. Carson Palmer is one reason for the Trojans new found offense as he has thrown for 649 yards in the three victories. The problem with USC all year has been the play of the defense. They rank 72nd in pass defense and 55th in total defense. Meanwhile, UCLA’s problems have been on both sides of the ball. They have forfeited the ball 13 times and allowed 1,095 yards in their recent string of losses. Without DeShaun Foster, replacement Akil Harris gained only 79 yards on 29 carries against Oregon. They will need a big game from Cory Paus to come away with the victory and he should deliver. USC may be on a roll, but they have not beaten a team with any defense yet. The Bruin "D" may not be the steel curtain, but they can stop the Trojans. UCLA gets back on track with a 10-point win.
Clemson (5-4) At #22 South Carolina –5 (7-3) 12:30pm ET
Clemson is coming off two straight defeats while South Carolina is trying to rebound from the 54-17 drubbing Florida put on them last week. The Gamecocks have not beaten Clemson since 1987 and are also looking for revenge in last year’s last second defeat. South Carolina will have to play without All-American linebacker Kalimba Edwards. That could pose a problem, as they will need all the speed they have to contain Woody Dantzler. South Carolina should bounce back after their embarrassment and the home crowd will provide the lift they need. Woody will probably have a big game as he usually does after subpar performances. However, the rest of the Tiger team is not as buoyant. The Gamecocks will win by controlling the clock with their running game. Cocks by 7.
#23 Georgia Tech –7.5 (6-3) At Wake Forest (5-4) 12:00pm ET
It will be interesting to see how the Yellow Jackets bounce back from the loss to Virginia. George Godsey completed 39-of-55 passes for a school-record 486 yards in defeat. They allowed 39 points last week, but overall the Georgia Tech defense has been solid. They lead the ACC in total defense, allowing 310.2 yards per game. They also rank second in scoring defense (19.4 ppg), rushing defense (96.1 ypg) and passing defense (214.1 ypg). Wake Forest erased a 24-0 deficit to upset North Carolina last week. The last three contests in Winston-Salem have been decided by a total of ten points. If the Demon Deacons are to win, they will need their defense to repeat their achievement of forcing four turnovers against the Tarheels. Wake Forest just doesn’t have the offense to keep up with Godsey and company. While they have put up 66 points in their last two games, they will be hard pressed to continue that pace Saturday. Georgia Tech by 14.
Ohio (1-8) At #24 Marshall –24 (8-1) 7:00pm ET
Marshall seeks revenge for their 38-28 loss to the Bobcats last year. They have already sealed a place in the MAC Championship game and are aiming for paybacks. Byron Leftwich heads the Thundering Herd and has been spectacular this year. He has thrown for 3,094 yards and 24 touchdowns while completing almost 67% of his passes. Ohio has not had much success at all this season. They are giving up 28 ppg. and scoring only 19. Ohio is in for a whipping, as Marshall should walk away in a 27-point victory.
#25 Fresno State –19.5 (8-2) At Nevada (2-7) 3:05pm ET
Fresno State still has a chance for a share of the WAC championship. They can become co-champions by winning their remaining three games and a Tulsa victory over Louisiana Tech on November 24. They travel to Reno after a pair of blowout victories. David Carr has been steady all year. He tied the touchdown record at Fresno State (30) last week by throwing four against SMU. Nevada is coming off an offensive juggernaut in a 64-45 loss at San Jose State in which the teams set a NCAA record by combining for 1,640 yards of total offense. This game may provide fireworks, but Fresno State is balanced and should come away with a 21-point victory.