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Brunson: Weekly Top 25 Preview
UHND.com  - Joe Brunson
11/23/2001

How Am I Doing?

Last Week’s Games               Overall

10-8 (55.6%) ATS               110-74 (59.8%) ATS

15-3 (83.3%) Straight-up       155-29 (84.2%) Straight-up

Northwestern (4-5) At #10 Illinois –18 (9-1) 1:00pm ET Thursday

With a win and a Michigan loss, Illinois could gain a share of the Big 10 title with a possible BCS berth. Northwestern comes into the game without their most explosive player, Damien Anderson. He is out with an injury, so that leaves the load of the offense to Zak Kustok. We know he is capable of turning out big plays, but he may have to come up with some gaudy numbers to give the Wildcats a chance. Northwestern’s defense gave up 619 yards to Bowling Green and 602 yards to Iowa in consecutive weeks. They are giving up a Big 10 worst 250 yards passing/game, which should light up Kurt Kittner’s eyes for his final game at Memorial Stadium. The Fighting Illini have way more to play for and Northwestern has all but waved the white flag for the year. Illinois by 21.

Tied with Oklahoma atop the South Division, the Longhorns need to win Friday and hope Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma on Saturday to advance to the title game next weekend. However, beating the Aggies at Kyle Field has been an imposing task of late. A&M has won the last two games at home. However, the Aggies have been in an offensive slump, scoring only 10 points in the last two games. The problem is about to get worse as leading rusher Derek Farmer and leading receiver Jamaar Taylor are both unlikely to play. As if their own enigma is not enough, the Longhorn defense ranks in the top six in every defensive category. The Longhorn offense has been virtually unstoppable after the OU loss and is showing no signs of slowing down. Look for Chris Simms and Cedric Benson to have their way in the second half, leading to a 24-point win.

This game is a huge step to see who will play the winner of the Florida-Tennessee matchup in the SEC Championship game. If Arkansas wins and LSU beats Auburn next week, they are in. LSU controls its own fate. If they win out, then they are in. Arkansas depends on their running game as they are tossing an SEC worst 134 yards/game through the air. QB Matt Jones has been the spark on the ground gaining 131 yards last week against Mississippi State. If they are to pull off the upset, they will need to find some big plays through the air. This aspect of the Hog offense may find an opening in Baton Rouge as LSU gives up almost 285 yards/game passing. LSU finds themselves is this position due to the efforts of Rohan Davey’s single-season school record of 2,659 yards through the air. His favorite target is Josh Reed who set his own record with 1,311 yards receiving. After six straight wins, the Razorbacks are playing with beaucoup confidence. However, Death Valley looms large and is always a tough place to play. Look for Arkansas to find a way to keep it close but Davey will win it in the fourth quarter. Tigers by 7.

The winner will find themselves in Dallas next week for the Big XXII Championship. Nebraska has won nine straight games in the series, but the last five games have been decided by a combined 15 points. Colorado has won eight of their last nine games with the help of an extremely deep backfield. The Buffs have three backs that have rushed for over 550 yards this season. They will need all of them to keep up with the Huskers. Nebraska has been rolling with over 300 yards rushing/game. They also have that one guy named Crouch to turn to in times of duress. He has gained 953 yards on the ground and has thrown for another 1,312 yards. If he has a big game and the Huskers win, the Heisman could very well be his. Craig Ochs will again be on the sidelines with a nagging ankle injury. He may play, but Bobby Pesavento will get the start. Colorado needs to keep up with Nebraska’s fast start. If they can get through the first half, they may find themselves with a chance for victory again in the fourth quarter. I think Crouch is playing too well right now for Colorado to stop him. Also, Pesavento hasn’t played well in big games (Texas) and may not be prepared for the speed Nebraska has at linebacker. Look for Colorado to play this game close but they won’t have the answers for the Husker rushing game in the end. Nebraska by 7.

The Cardinals have already assured themselves a berth in the Liberty Bowl and are looking to put icing on the cake. They will play a TCU team that has given up 75 points in their last two losses. However, the Horned Frogs have had a nice effort on the offensive side of the ball. Casey Printers threw for 619 yards in his last two outings. They will need another brilliant performance from Printers to keep up with Dave Ragone and Louisville. TCU’s defense hasn’t played all that well this year and Louisville’s offense is a dynamic one. The Cardinals don’t have as much to play for as the Horned Frogs, but they should be at least a little fired up to get their 11^th win to break the school record. Look for the Cardinals to come out a little flat, then pull away in the second half for a 10-point victory.

Fresno State still has an outside shot at the WAC title. They will need a win Friday followed by a Louisiana Tech loss to Tulsa. David Carr threw four touchdown passes as the Bulldogs scored 54 unanswered points en route to a 61-14 rout of Nevada last week. This game will be the season finale for Carr. He has thrown for 3,539 yards and 34 touchdowns this season. The Trojans are giving up 38 points/game this year and shouldn’t be much of a challenge at all for the Bulldogs. Look for Fresno State to flirt with 60 points in a 35-point shellacking.

In a matchup for 2^nd best in the Big East, both teams have significant bowl bids on the line. It will be interesting to see how the Orangemen rebound from the embarrassing loss to Miami last week. They were outgained 566-185 in total yardage against the Hurricanes. In William Green’s return after the one-game suspension, he gained 213 yards with one score. Boston College boasts a very balanced offense and a defense that is consistent. I don’t think Syracuse is over their loss to Miami. The last time Syracuse suffered a loss of that magnitude, they didn’t show much resilience. In 1999, Virginia Tech defeated Syracuse 62-0. The Orangemen finished the season by losing three of their last four regular season games. Look for Boston College to come into the Carrier Dome extremely fired as they are still looking to step up to the upper echelon of College Football. Boston College wins in a minor upset by a field goal.

Michigan can win the Big Ten title outright while Ohio State can clinch a share with a victory. The big question will be how long Buckeye coach Jim Tressel goes without playing Steve Bellisari. He is listed as the fourth string QB, so Craig Krenzel is expected to get the start. He came in to replace last week’s starter, Scott McMullen, to go 11-of-23 for 164 yards with score. Former Coach Jon Cooper realizes the importance of beating Michigan as a successful tenure ended because of a 2-10-1 record against the Wolverines. Michigan was held to just 173 yards of total offense last week with Jon Navarre only throwing for 77 of it. With the quarterback shuffling that Tressel is doing, RB Jonathan Wells will be asked for a huge game. He gained 192 yards on 23 carries against Illinois, but this week he will face the Big Ten’s #1 rush defense. This should be a low scoring game with Michigan coming out on top with the better offense, no matter who is barking signals for the Buckeyes. Michigan by 10.

Oklahoma will represent the South Division of the Big XXII in Dallas with a victory over the hapless Cowboys. The Sooners had to hold off a feisty State team last year in a 12-7 victory. This year the Cowboy offense stumbles into Norman to face a Sooner "D" ranked 3^rd in the country. With no real threat to run the ball, Okie State depends on QB Aso Pogi. With an leg injury, Pogi is questionable so the upset hopes may depend on Josh Fields. Fields went 10-of-18 for 161 yards in the victory over Baylor last week. The biggest problem for the Cowboys will be stopping Nate Hybl and the Sooner offense. State has given up 1,052 yards in their last two games, including 506 yards to Baylor’s porous offense. Look for Oklahoma to finish the regular season in style with a 31-point victory.

Vanderbilt (2-7) At #6 Tennessee –24.5 (8-1) 3:30pm ET

All eyes are on Florida for Tennessee, but first they must take care of business with Vandy. The Vols will play for the SEC east title regardless if they win or lose against the Commodores, but with a victory, they can keep their BCS dreams alive. Vandy QB Greg Zolman threw for 441 yards in a losing effort last week, but the defense has surrendered 127 points in their last two games. Look for Tennessee to take this game seriously and lay down 50 points in a 38-point victory.

The Bulldogs are looking to end a three-game losing streak to the Jackets in the 86^th meeting of this rivalry. George Godsey will be the difference as he has thrown for 753 yards in his last two games. Look for both sides to move the ball well, but experience will win this game and Tech has it. Jackets by 7.

Miami is looking to pay Washington back for last season. The Huskies gave Miami their only loss of the season and essentially kept them out of the Championship game. Miami proved to the nation last week that they were back. They completely shut down a decent Syracuse team. Look for the Canes to due much of the same to the Husky attack. Washington has some players on offense, but were destroyed when they faced an average UCLA defense. Miami will come out at full throttle and blow out Washington by 31.

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