Please take a moment to visit our sponsor's banner above! This helps us to pay for server fees. Thanks!

Back In the Saddle
UHND.com  - Rock Kanutski
10/11/2002

After a two-week absence (one of them the pre-Stanford bye week), this column is back in the saddle and will continue weekly for the rest of the season.

This season deserves it. I wrote early on, after the defeat of Maryland and Purdue, that this season would be special, even 1964-special. (See Out On a Limb: This Problematic Season for Rock's full, limb-like predictions.)

Now events appear to bear that out. We stand 5-0, having defeated Stanford 31-7, with a powerful defense; an apparently lucky, apparently shaky offense; and come at last to a softer spot in our unmatched schedule.

Notre Dame is back in the saddle as well.

As a matter of fact, I believe only one thing will keep this team from a 1964 showing, when Ara Parseghian came within a Coliseum holding call of winning the national championship — Notre Dame's low starting point in the polls. It would be difficult for even an undefeated ND team to get into the title game, this year's Fiesta Bowl, without a remarkable series of losses by the maze of higher-ranked teams.

But still there's hope. Both Florida and Tennessee have dropped below the ninth-ranked Irish, and the rest have interconnected play schedules that could leave several of them with one or two losses.

But we'll leave that part to the gods for now, who I hear can be bribed. This week's Pinsticker Specials appear below. Get your bobbleheads ready.


So we're on track for Rock's predictions, which are:

Remember, you heard it here first.

Other writers, a few, have come on board as well. According to this week's CollegeFootballNews.com bowl projections, for example, we will meet Florida State (again) in the Orange Bowl, while Texas duels Va. Tech in the Sugar Bowl, and Miami defends the title against Georgia. That could easily lead to three undefeated teams on January 4. Care to bet Notre Dame is ranked number three, in that scenario?

Still, there's a whole world doubting us. Our defense is "opportunistic" (read "lucky"); our offense is "maturing" (read "not good enough"); our kicker is "slumping" (read "spooked"). In short, we barely deserve our place at the party, and the polls show it — we're the lowest ranked major undefeated team.

So many to convince, so little time.


BUT THAT WILL BE THEN . . .

. . . and this is now. This week we face the Pitt Panthers. Let's begin this examination by opening the daily papers. Hmmm.

In one journal we read about the Panther defense, how similar to ours they are; why, only the width of a hair separates them from us. In another we read about the Panther 5-1 season. Here we read about the Pitt receivers, and there how the quarterback has come into his own, wherever that is. Hmmm.

So much for the papers. Here's how Rock sees it:


Pitt running vs. ND defense — ND kills them.

Pitt hasn't had strong running yet this year, given an opponent list that only Troy State trembles before. Stats through last weekend show Pitt averaging 3.0 yards per rush, 132 yards per game. The Irish, in the meantime, give up 2.5 ypr, and 73.6 ypg, against much stronger competition.

The Pitt QB may break a Carlyle jaunt or two, but let's be blunt. Rock says Pitt running gets stuffed early and often.

The result — no Pitt points via the running game. We won't tally an Irish score off fumbles, but be looking for it. The Irish will.


Pitt passing vs. ND defense — ND easy.

Here's a surprise that won't, in hindsight, surprise anyone at all. Pitt is averaging 9 yards per attempt, but so is Marshall. The Panthers hung 316 passing yards on Toledo (who handed back 331 yards, by the way), and they gained over 10 yards per pass play. But against Texas A&M, Pitt managed just 176 yards through the air, just 4.3 yards per attempt. Is there a message there?

Against the ND defense, I believe there's no hope. Last year's best receivers are long gone. ND will attempt to pound the Panthers into a one-dimensional haze early, then zone their receivers the rest of the afternoon. That's pick country for the Walton crew.

I'll be generous — one Pitt TD via the passing game. Let's offset that with three ND picks, two of which will lead to scores (TD and FG).

So far — Pitt 7, ND 10.


ND running vs. Pitt defense — ND by enough.

Yes, Pitt has linebackers, but they haven't met the Irish, and ND running is getting stronger by the week. The O-line is finally settling into its zone blocking techniques and it shows. The runners are patient, and frankly, I think Irish running will give the Panthers fits.

Look for a slow start (even if Carlyle opens the game in place of Dillingham) that rolls to a tide by the fourth quarter.

Rock says ND picks up two scores running, one of them late, when Pitt has given up trying. The tally so far — Pitt 7, ND 24.


ND passing vs. Pitt defense — ND easy.

This is the toughest one, since Holiday and Dillingham have such different passing strengths. Carlyle throws long well, but misses on slants and over-the-middle plays. Dillingham plays the short and medium game better.

But either way, Pitt has only one strong defender, and ND has many good receivers, including the heretofore quiet Rhema McKnight. I think both Irish QBs may see time. If they do, count two scores for the Irish via the pass. If only one QB plays, make that one.

Let's stay conservative. Points so far — Pitt 7, ND 31.


Special teams. Pitt has a good runback man in Torrie Cox, so they may get good field position on some drives, but no points from special teams. (Points from special teams don't need to mean a direct score; a runback to the ND 20 yard line followed by a quick offensive strike would have to count as a special team score.)

The Irish, on the other hand, are a real threat. I give them at least one score by special teams, perhaps more. Let's make that a field goal (with Setta having corrected his head-lift problem).


The final by scoring:

Pitt — One score, via passing.

ND — Six scores; two running, one passing, two defense, one special teams.

The final by points — Pitt 7, ND 34.


What could change this?

For Pitt, not much. They could take away one of our projected ND running scores with tough game-long linebacker play and an ND fumble or two.

For ND, the passing game could take off, putting the ND score in the 40s. Either way it's a rough ride for the Panthers.


THE SWEET PAIN — THIS WEEK'S PINSTICKER SPECIALS

You're starting to remember how it was, aren't you? That sweet pain of watching the polls each week, because each week matters, each week there's hope, each week the long climb could actually take you home.

The ladder gets taller, the wind stronger, the fearful fall more and more troubling to consider. And yet we'd rather suffer this happy misery in every autumn God grants us sufficient skill, than know the quiet ache of death-before-October.

That puts us in pinsticker country, that voodoo land where we stick thin steel into every team bobblehead with a decent chance to lose. Our enemies. Time to influence the gods.

This week we're blessed. How do we climb the polls? Let's count the ways.

First, we beat Pitt.

Second, we load up a feast of bobbleheads with voodoo iron:

And that's all for a week. Soon we'll look at those bowl matchups in earnest.

And remember — the ND offense, while rough, is a beast being born. If you recall your Yeats, those rough beasts have destiny on their side. The offense will awaken, and when it does, you'll see an every-week four-touchdown machine.

Add those regular contributions from the defense that no one expects but us, and this team is a beast indeed. See you on the road to Bethlehem.


Yours, slouching,


The Rock

(c) Rock Kanutski
All rights reserved.
 

 DISCUSS THIS ARTICLE ON THE BOARD - CLICK HERE