So we meet at last, the week of Florida State. Everything about this matchup is myth, the stuff of appearances writ large. What they don't stand for, we do — sportsmanship, good grades, public speaking. What we don't stand for, they do — the party-school style of the sunbelt athlete.

In the world of myth, we stand for sportsmanship; they for a woofing insulting swagger that carries the rudeness of competition off the field and into the street.

We stand for good grades, for the student in student-athlete; their player graduation rates sank below respectable decades ago, at least in the tales we tell.

And yes, we stand for public speaking, if that Lorenzo Booker story is correct. You know, the one where he says he chose Florida State ("Hello, Bobby") because Willingham wanted his players to sound well-spoken enough to succeed away from football.

What do the Seminoles stand for?

In the cultural myths that surround us, they stand for the shift of power from the rust belt to the sun belt. The death of the athlete that's well-spoken. They stand for winning in that dominant MTV way that seems the unstoppable style of the world. The Romans, the gangstas, the pinstripe corporate wolves. The tide of wealth and greed, the gold necklaces and golden parachutes. The scary blend of ruthlessness and success that so fascinates these times (and dictates public policy).

The Florida teams; the Seminoles. The gods of the modern gridiron.

It's all a myth, of course. Enron swagger doesn't always spell success; only sometimes. And Florida teams don't just lose to each other; only sometimes.

The world is full of myths. Ty and the Irish have overcome their share this year — that they couldn't win at night, couldn't win on the road, couldn't beat Michigan State, couldn't beat a top ten team, couldn't start fast after a massive engine overhaul.

Five up; five down.

And two to go — that they can't beat a team stuffed full with sunbelt athletes; that they can't beat Coliseum refs.

Out of the myths come legends. Here's our chance to take one more myth to the cleaners.

But first things first. Let's briefly review the Air Force game. It has something to teach us.

THE RUNNER STUMBLES

It was a week of illusions.

It appeared to most that the Irish defense would not solve the Falcon running game. Illusion — they stuffed it in spades.

Chance Harridge, the ace quarterback of the Air Force option game, stumbled and fell, again and again, knocked down by a tide of defenders, each perfectly positioned and perfectly aggressive. Ouch.

It also appeared the Irish ground game had come completely apart the week before, when they gained oh-so-few yards against the Panthers. Illusion — Ryan Grant put up his best game yet, 190 yards through massive holes, making the Notre Dame offensive line look like, well, a Notre Dame offensive line.

And it appeared that Rock had nearly called the score (the prediction was 24-14; the game ended 21-14). Illusion, based on two offsetting errors:

1. While the point total was close, I got there the wrong way, with a bad call. I called for two AF scores — two (grudging) running TDs. That was way too conservative, a bow to maybe-the-others-are-right. No Falcon score can be attributed to Falcon running; they were stuffed like a holiday bird. I should have seen that coming.
    
2. My second error was assigning an Irish score to the special teams. No one knew that both Air Force scores would be handed to them like coupons — one by the Irish offense (Holiday's fumble for a score), and one by those special special teams (Duff's fumble to set up a score).

Thus, while Chance Harridge stumbled, so did Rock. And thereby hangs my Florida State prediction.

THE STATE OF THE STATE

Above I talked about the myth of the Florida athlete and the Florida schools. In fact, all is not well in the state of Orange County East.

Miami looks beatable, thanks to the Florida State game (more on this if the Irish get that far). The University of Florida, minus Steve Spurrier, has gone from a low first-rank team, whose record never matched its reputation, to a mid second-rank team, where they'll have to rebuild both.

And the Seminoles, entering this game as a 10-point favorite, have lost twice, once to (yikes) Louisville and once to Miami. That's right — the unbeaten sixth-ranked Irish are 10-point underdogs to a twice-beaten team.

Can you say "double message"? What's a prognosticator to do?

This prognosticator refuses to repeat his first Air Force mistake. My call this week:

FSU running vs. ND defense — ND holds them.

You heard it here first; ND holds them. Yes, the Seminoles have a terrific runner in Greg Jones, and a more-than-capable change up in the swift Nick Maddox. Both looked great against Miami. Jones is fast and big, a TJ Duckett type, and he will play on Sunday.

He can also be tackled. The Irish have seen these runners before, Duckett at Another State, Green at Boston College. Miami had Mr. Jones' number for much of the game (and lost it for good stretches as well).

Irish defenders will swarm the Seminole ground game; stopping it will be Priority One. And coming off the stunning success at Colorado Springs, in this stunning defensive year, they will succeed. I won't pick against this running defense again.

I want to say no scores by FSU running. Reason (and fear of public ridicule) says, C'mon, Rock, give them one at least. To prove that I can be reasonable, if only with myself, I'll compromise. They get one running score, a field goal.

The tally so far — FSU 3, ND 0.

FSU passing vs. ND defense — ND easy.

If the ND defense makes the opposition one dimensional (they've done it all year), Rix may get a score passing, but he'll also blow up like a post-war land mine. He's been on the verge all year, and the Rix Question has this team poised at each other's throats.

So far, no one's gotten bit, but you can hear the growling amid the swagger. This team is passing the Irish going the other way, and they're starting to act like it.

I don't think this quarterback's arm can carry the team; nor does the team. When the thing starts to come apart, when Jones can't get the critical yards, watch for blunders all over the field as the Seminoles struggle to sync up. As one writer put it, Bowden would trade several choice athletes to get our team's chemistry. He knows what he's missing.

One score passing for Florida State; two picks by the Irish defenders; many sacks; perhaps a fumble. The Irish score at least once on defense.

With the Seminole offense on the field — FSU 10, ND 7.

ND running vs. FSU defense — A stand-off.

That doesn't mean the Irish aren't successful running. It's just that running against a good big line isn't their strong suit, and hasn't been all year. They're clearly getting better — watch out next year — but this isn't Air Force fogging their face masks.

If the Irish score once running, it will be a good day. They can win even if they don't score once running — they just have to hold their own, make Florida State respect the run. This they can easily do.

I say Irish running puts one up. Watch for Carlyle on designed keepers. This is also a revisionist Carlyle; he wants off his leash in the passing game, and I think the coaches will say Roger to that. Carlyle gets to take off when the way is clear.

If Grant/Wilson and Carlyle both get going, they'll score twice running, but I'll stick with one. Now we're getting somewhere — FSU 10, ND 14.

ND passing vs. FSU defense — the Irish tide has turned.

As I argued previously, ND passing is in much better shape than the Pitt game showed. Holiday throws with accuracy, short, medium and long. So far, only Battle is getting free consistently. The receiver reads are complex, but these are smart kids. The blitz hasn't been a problem for a game or two, and stunting D-line play has lost some of its sting.

The passing game is growing up, but you couldn't tell it from the Air Force game. Once Grant got rolling, he got the ball. The passing game, while good, was second fiddle to the featured player.

Not so this week. Florida State has good but not great cornerbacks, and their passing defense is considered (even by those 10-point hounds in Vegas) to be their weakness. I think the Irish coaches exploit that.

This game is billed as strength on strength (Seminole running vs. Irish run defense) and weakness on weakness (Irish passing vs. Seminole pass defense). Rock says the Irish win both of those contests. Competent Irish passing to a good mix of receivers will nab at least one score.

Though I don't want to be, let's stay conservative. One Irish score passing and no points by the opposing defense.

So far — FSU 10, ND 21.

Special teams. Seminoles don't score by special teams, but Vontez Duff has an apology to make for last week's blunder. I see at least one score by special teams, and lots of good field position, both for the offense (Irish kick returns) and defense (Hildbold's punting). One of those returns goes to the cup, or clears the rough for a chip shot. Special teams put one on the board.

The final by scoring:

FSU — Two scores, one running, one passing.

ND — Four scores; one running, one passing, one defense, one special teams.

The final by points — FSU 10, ND 24.

I realize this is an eccentric call, but let's look at its elements:

ND rush defense shuts down Seminole running.
ND pass defense picks Rix apart; scores once.
ND running has Holiday as an extra back; scores once.
ND passing looks like the Maryland game; scores once.

Can you say that won't happen? I think the odds for it are very good. Ara said recently that if you handed him a team with a great offense, or one with a great defense, he'd take the great defense any time. Here you go, ND fans — a truly great defense.

Now, what could change this?

Obviously, I could be wrong about the FSU offense, and they could put up 35 points. If so, ND loses.

The ND side is sweeter, and in my opinion, more likely. With Holiday as an extra runner for the occasional free-lance 40-yard jaunt, plus designed plays like that naked bootleg he slipped on in Colorado Springs, the Irish ground game could put up two scores.

Nicholas Setta could get his groove back. Add Setta's missed field goals to the last few games we played, and you get comfortable, out-of-reach scores. No talk about no offense.

And finally, Florida State could come apart under stress. After all, they came apart with a lead against Miami; how will they do when they're behind and frustrated against the well-spoken Ty Willingham?

The myth and the legend. Ty has leapfrogged Lou and is now compared to Ara, favorably. He's in legend land already. The myth of the invincible gangsta-CEO-MTV athlete is just that, just a myth, just a story we've been telling ourselves about one bad way to succeed.

It seems we're waking up. Rock says gangstas ultimately take each other down. If you're noticing, gangsta-CEOs do the same. This could be ultimately in football.

Either way, enjoy this one. I wish the Bowdens were unbeaten and number one, but oh well. It ain't '93, but it's not nothing either. If this is the best we can play against this week, so be it. Let the game begin.

PINSTICKER SPECIALS

Finally, our pinsticker picks of the week. Bobbleheads and sewing pins, a voodoo feast. Whom shall we stick this week?

First things first; we put those pins down and speak well, but forcefully, to the Seminoles. 'Nuff said.

Second, line up these team dolls for a little acupuncture:

• Oklahoma vs. Colorado — We keep trying to get the Sooners, and they keep slithering away. Actually, given the results of the Iowa State game (49-3), slithering is hardly the word. They laugh in our faces. We laugh in theirs. Sooners get the pins, again.
   
• Ohio State vs. Penn State — Almost; the Badgers nearly got them. Let's give Paterno a boost in his quest to outcoach Bowden. (Someday those teams will play, Penn State and Florida State, and coffins with headphones will sit on each sideline.) Once more for the freshman. Ego rules. Bucks get the pins.
   
• Georgia vs. Kentucky — Soon we'll run out of halfway decent teams to throw at them, and the Dawgs will end up in the BCS. Can we let that happen? Not while there's steel in my heart. Go Cats. Beat Dawgs. Pins.

Here's hoping. A resounding win in Tallahassee (or any win at all) and one loss from the above puts ND in the top five.

By the way, are you noticing why Georgia and NC State are doing so well? Same reason the Seminoles aren't. The Bowdens lost two good coaches to those teams.

And on that note, Rock says goodbye. Win or lose, it's going to be a terrific game. Enjoy!

Mythically yours,

The Rock

(c) Rock Kanutski
All rights reserved.