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After a two week hiatus and with the end of the season in sight, I have decided to return to what I do best - waste time dreaming up scenarios for Notre Dame football that have very little chance of actually occuring. After the unfortunate bankruptcy of the "Notre Dame Guide to Watching College Football", I have been forced to return under the new moniker of the "Notre Dame BCS Guide". The NDBG is being funded as a subsidiary of my fledgling laundry business that I ran out of the basement of Morrissey for about a month, so it should have some staying power this time, at least until the USC game.

Oh and if you are looking for a simple answer as to where to book your New Year's flights, you've come to the wrong place because I have no idea. There, now you can read on at your own risk....

Anyway, this edition is divided up into three parts: first, what needs to occur for Notre Dame to make it to the Fiesta Bowl; second, what scenarios could prevent Notre Dame from going to a BCS bowl; and third, who to root for this weekend while ND is on a bye.

1. ND to the FIESTA BOWL

First off, it goes without saying that ND has to win out and go 11-1 to make it to Tempe. Right now, ND is #7 in the BCS rankings. If the Irish keep winning and go 11-1, it is unlikely they will be leapfrogged by anybody behind them, namely Iowa nor USC (even though both are ahead of ND in the human polls) - Iowa because they have only one game left against Minnesota and USC because ND plays them and an ND win, by nature, will remove USC from the equation. This whole thing about ND's strength of schedule taking a hit because of playing Navy and Rutgers is very overrated. Take this past weekend - ND defeats 1-8 Navy. Navy's 1-8 record is going to kill our SOS, right? Wrong. ND's SOS only drops from 4 to 5 in the BCS. What people tend to forget is that Navy is not the only ND opponent that played last weekend. If the rest of the teams on your schedule are winning, it tends to cancel out the Navy's of the world, and ND's opponents nearly all won on Saturday. In fact, don't look now, but three of ND's opponents (USC, Michigan, and FSU) are ranked 9, 10, and 11 in the BCS rankings, not mention Maryland and Pittsburgh who are both 8-2 and Air Force, who is 7-3. Also, the hit people thought we would take in the human polls because we narrowly defeated Navy (as opposed to routing them) never transpired. In fact, we actually moved up in the coaches' poll because Va Tech lost. Just win, baby.

From there, it's really pretty simple. Five of the six teams in front of us in the BCS rankings need to lose a game. It would help if the two unbeatens (Ohio State and Miami) lost two games given the relatively large gap between us and them right now, although given the love the computers have for ND, I think a one loss Ohio State and/or Miami team could easily fall behind the Irish in the BCS. Also, it would help, even though they are behind us in the BCS rankings, if Iowa lost as well since that would gain us some points in the human polls and, in turn, help our BCS number.

So, always trying to be helpful, I have summarized below the remainder of the season for the "Pool of Eight", which includes Iowa (in order of BCS ranking):

1. OHIO STATE (11-0, 6-0):

Remaining Schedule: 11/16 @ Illinois, 11/23 vs Michigan

Skinny: If they win out they are in the Fiesta Bowl. Illinois has won 3 of their last 4 and played Penn State tough in the one loss. Ohio State has not played well on the road, barely sneaking by Cincinnati, Northwestern, Wisconsin, and Purdue. Add the "look ahead factor" with Michigan upcoming and this makes Illinois a dangerous game. Would not be a shock if they lost one of the two remaining games.

2. MIAMI (9-0, 4-0):

Remaining Schedule: 11/21 vs Pittsburgh, 11/30 @ Syracuse, 12/7 vs Virginia Tech

Skinny: Notre Dame can afford to have one of the six teams in front of them win out. Likely it will be the Canes. The two toughest games remaining are both at home. They have almost two weeks to prep for Pitt and then another long week to prep for Syracuse (like they need it). Canes are the best team in the country. Period.

3. WASHINGTON STATE (9-1, 6-0)

Remaining Schedule: 11/23 vs Washington, 12/7 @ UCLA

Skinny: Now is where I am going to start to get pissed off. WSU is a classic case of "better to lose early in the season than late". The only real quality win they have is a 3 point OT win over USC where if USC had not missed a PAT in the 4th quarter, Wazzou would be screwed. (Oregon was a decent win, but it was at home and Oregon will finish with 5 losses this year. Mark it down.) Other than that, they are ranked third with the likes of Idaho, Nevada, and Montana State on their schedule. In their only out of conference game against a good team, they got smoked by Ohio State. Oh yeah, did I mention that I hate the Pac-10? Does anybody else hate a conference where the receivers all get 5 yards of separation on every play and the defenses tackle like my grandmother? Anyway, Wazzou will be hard pressed to make it out of the rest of the season unscathed because (1) it never happens in the Pac-10 and (2) the game on 11/23 will be underachieving Washington's bowl game. That said, it pains me to have to root for Slick Rick Neuhesiel. Dirtball.

4. OKLAHOMA (8-1, 4-1)

Remaining Schedule: 11/16 @ Baylor, 11/23 vs Texas Tech, 11/30 @ Oklahoma State

Skinny: Tough road the rest of the way (other than Baylor), especially if they have to match up again with Colorado on a dry field in the Big XII championship. Texas Tech would be an interesting test if it were in Lubbock. I thought before last week that Oklahoma would roll through the end of the season unbeaten. I was wrong. The Oklahoma State game should be interesting since it's a revenge game for OU, but it's on the road.

5. TEXAS (9-1, 5-1)

Remaining Schedule: 11/16 @ Texas Tech, 11/29 vs Texas A&M

Skinny: Another team that I see ranked in front of us and it just pisses me off. North Texas, UNC, Houston, Tulane. Nice out of conference schedule, Horns. And in their only truly marquee game of the year, they got pummeled AGAIN by OU. Add to that the fact that it took botched special teams play (Kansas State) and idiotic coaching (Nebraska) for them to eke out their only two road tests, and my anger only burns deeper. And on top of all this, other than Miami, UT is probably the least likely to lose the rest of the year among the teams ahead of ND. If they do lose, it will be to Tech this weekend in Lubbock. R.C. Slocum got his big win for this decade this past weekend. Now he and the Agros can go back to sleep until 2010.

6. GEORGIA (9-1, 5-1)

Remaining Schedule: 11/16 @ Auburn, 11/30 vs Georgia Tech

Skinny: In my opinion, the most likely of the teams in front of ND to lose a game. Huge game at Auburn this weekend. Then a rivalry game with Georgia Tech Thanksgiving weekend. And if they somehow manage to beat Auburn, they will likely face LSU in the SEC championship game. (Those non-conference tilts against Northwestern State and New Mexico State should have Mark Richt's team quite battle tested for their title run. Can you tell I am bitter about the non conference teams that these "schools" in front of us schedule?)

7. NOTRE DAME (9-1)

Remaining Schedule: 11/23 vs Rutgers, 11/30 @ USC

Skinny: All things considered, ND's schedule could not have played out any better. They basically get to sit back the next two weeks and (assuming they don't look past Rutgers) hopefully watch a few of the teams in front of them take it on the chin. And then make a big statement at the end of the year by going on the road to beat USC, which can hopefully win them some much needed human poll points. If they can head into Thanksgiving weekend and the USC game at number 4 or higher in the BCS, which is not out of the question, then they have a puncher's chance, especially if the teams in front of them are comprised by any combination of Miami, Wash State, Oklahoma, and Georgia, all of whom would have tough, tough matchups on 12/7 (Oklahoma and Georgia in conference championship games).

8. IOWA (10-1, 6-1)

Remaining Schedule: 11/16 @ Minnesota

Skinny: Iowa is pretty well screwed. They actually finish their SEASON this Saturday, so while other one-loss teams are making a late season statement for "why us" in the event that the Fiesta Bowl becomes an affair that hosts a one-loss team (and I think it will), Iowa is sitting at home watching on TV. Plus, Minnesota is no pushover, although they have not played well of late. But it's in Minnesota, so who knows. Anyway, even with a 72-0 win over Minnesota, Iowa still will not pass an 11-1 Notre Dame, but this Iowa-Minnesota game is important for ND for this reason - Iowa is ahead of ND in both human polls. Thus, an Iowa loss would drop them behind ND and give the Irish a much needed point in the BCS rankings. Plus, an Iowa loss makes it easier for the Rose Bowl to take Notre Dame, if that indeed comes into play.

2. ND Shut Out of BCS

As you read these, keep in mind that the criteria for ND to be eligible to go to a BCS bowl is that they must win at least 9 games (done) AND be in the Top 12 of the BCS rankings. So if we are 10-2, but #13 in the BCS, tough noogies.

Despite what some want to say about a 10-2 ND team being a lock for a BCS bowl, it's just not true. At this point, as best I can tell, these are the potential pitfalls that could force Notre Dame into the Gator Bowl on New Year's Day:

(1) ND loses to Rutgers - Even if ND won at USC the following week to go 10-2, a loss to Rutgers would likely plummet ND down into the high teens in the ever-skeptical human polls, which would be way too much ground to make up to get back to #12 in the BCS rankings.

These next two are only really an issue if ND goes 10-2, since if we are 11-1 we will likely finish in the Top 6 of the BCS and gain automatic qualification just after the #1 and #2 teams.

(2) Texas creeps into the BCS Top 4 and doesn't win the Big XII, and Ohio State wins out - Before I go into the granularity of the chances of this occuring, let me explain why this is important. The BCS has a rule whereby teams that are #3 or #4 in the BCS rankings that are NOT their conference's champion automatically qualify for the BCS. (This rule went into effect when an 11-1 Kansas State team finished third in 1998 and went to the Alamo Bowl because A&M beat them in the Big XII championship game; serves them right for playing an out of conference schedule of Lyons, Breen Phillips, and Pasquerilla East, but I digress.) So how could a 10-2 Notre Dame team get screwed in this scenario? Because if Texas (#5 right now) moves into the Top 4 without winning the Big XII, which is somewhat likely given that they will be favored to win out, and Washington State (#3 right now) could lose, they will gain automatic selection. The rub comes in that if Ohio State is in the Fiesta Bowl, then the Rose Bowl has the other at-large spot and could (not definite, but easily a 50-50 shot) take an 11-1 Iowa as the other at large team because of the ties to the Big Ten. I am skeptical that the Big Ten would pass on Notre Dame and any noise they are making about Iowa right now may be posturing but it's worth being aware of. (ND finishing in the Top 6 of the BCS gets precedence over a #3 or #4 that doesn't win its conference, so again an 11-1 ND is likely unaffected by this possibility.)

(3) Lower ranked teams break through and win conference titles - Examples of this would be Pitt knocking off Miami next week to win the Big East, and Georgia and/or Oklahoma losing in their conference title games to teams ranked down in the teens like LSU or Colorado. Any occurrence of this basically increases the number of eligible at-large teams since Miami, Georgia, and Oklahoma would be unlikely (to varying degrees) to drop out of the Top 12 of the BCS. Quite simply, it means more choices for BCS bowls for at large bids. In all honesty, this one is a reach because ND is still more desirable than anybody else as a draw at the gate, and it's going to come down to a bowl committee's preference. The only scenario where I could see a bowl taking someone over ND when given the choice would be the Orange Bowl taking Miami as an at-large (guaranteeing a sellout), but that would be virtually impossible for the Orange Bowl to do as an at-large this year since the host team of the Orange Bowl is the Big East or ACC champ, and both of those scenarios would produce rematches from the regular season (Pitt and FSU), a scenario which the BCS tries to avoid. And like the previous bullet, an 11-1 ND team in this scenario is a virtual lock for the Top 6, so beating USC and Rutgers makes it moot.

3. Guide to Watching College Football - weekend of 11/16

Even though the Irish are on a bye this week, it should still be a good weekend to watch since a loss by any of the teams in lower case below is as good as an Irish win:

Ohio State @ ILLINOIS

Oklahoma @ BAYLOR

Texas @ TEXAS TECH

Georgia @ AUBURN

Iowa @ MINNESOTA

Wins by teams in CAPS below either directly help ND's strength of schedule or hurt one or more of the other contender's strength of schedule:

Syracuse @ BOSTON COLLEGE, 12:00 PM ET

Connecticut @ NAVY, 12:00 PM ET

Wisconsin @ MICHIGAN, 12:05 PM ET

Tennessee @ MISSISSIPPI STATE, 12:30 PM ET

DUKE @ Georgia Tech, 1:00 PM ET

Houston @ CINCINNATI, 1:00 PM ET

Oklahoma State @ KANSAS, 2:00 PM ET

MISSOURI @ Texas A&M, 2:00 PM ET

PORTLAND STATE @ Montana State, 2:05 PM ET

AIR FORCE @ Unlv, 3:00 PM ET

MCNEESE STATE @ Northwestern State, 3:00 PM ET

Temple @ RUTGERS, 3:30 PM ET

North Carolina @ FLORIDA STATE, 3:30 PM ET

ARMY @ Tulane, 3:30 PM ET

ARKANSAS STATE @ Idaho, 5:00 PM ET

Oregon State @ STANFORD, 5:00 PM ET

SMU at Utep, 5:05 PM ET

SOUTH CAROLINA @ Florida, 6:00 PM ET

Kent State @ CENTRAL FLORIDA, 6:00 PM ET

BOWLING GREEN @ South Florida, 7:00 PM ET

Arizona State @ USC, 7:00 PM ET

Nevada @ FRESNO STATE, 7:00 PM ET

Iowa State @ COLORADO, 7:00 PM ET

MARYLAND @ Clemson, 7:45 PM ET

Alabama @ LSU, 9:00 PM ET

So many other "big" things need to happen that assessing the impact of the remainder of the games on this week's slate is not really worth the time. If ND moves back into the Top 4, I will extrapolate out to the "opponents' opponents" level of analysis.

Enjoy the games this weekend. Go Irish!

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