Well, since the last publication, Chris Simms and Mack Brown have been knocked out of BCS contention, three Portland Trail Blazers have been arrested for various transgressions, Florida State’s QB has been suspended for forging checks, and the Irish have been installed as a double digit underdog on the road. Indeed, it appears all is right in the world again.

This week’s pre-Thanksgiving issue will address the same issues we have been tackling since I re-started the BCS Guide. (Oh and by the way, the Feds found out about my laundry scam at Notre Dame, so this version of the ND BCS Guide has been re-started as a subsidiary of Lyons Food Sales. Pat, please don’t tell Trish.) We will look at what needs to happen for the Irish to go to the Fiesta Bowl, what needs to happen for the Irish to miss out on a BCS bowl (including an intriguing "be careful what you wish for" scenario), and who to root for this holiday weekend.

PART ONE. ND TO THE FIESTA BOWL

I don’t know what I am angrier about – the fact that Ohio State lost to Michigan, or the fact that the BCS forced me to sit there and root for that little worm Lloyd Carr for three hours. I felt like I needed a shower afterwards. If Notre Dame is ever neck and neck with Michigan for a recruit, someone needs to send a video to the recruit’s parents of a Lloyd Carr post-loss press conference and a Ty Willingham post-loss press conference. The video would clearly show that you can go to Michigan and learn how to blame others (referees, fans, the schedule makers, etc) for your failures or go to Notre Dame and learn how to be accountable.

Ok, I’ll jump off my soapbox for a minute and break this thing down. As you all know by now, the BCS standings as of 11/25/02 look like this:

1. Miami
2. Ohio State
3. Oklahoma
4. Georgia
5. Iowa
6. USC
7. Notre Dame

The drop-off from #7 to #8 is pretty drastic. Washington State is #8 and about 7 BCS points behind the Irish, and it is safe to say a two-loss Miami team would not drop behind any of the other two loss teams, except maybe USC. So really the only teams left with a mathematical chance of playing in the Fiesta Bowl are the seven listed above.

I know I said last time that if the Irish win out they will not drop behind Iowa or USC. I stand by that, because in the end, if they win out, they will finish ahead of both (more on this later). They dropped behind both of them temporarily this week, but that is due to the ND strength of schedule taking a pounding this past weekend on two fronts: first, the Irish playing 1-9 Rutgers, and second having almost the entire ND schedule take it on the chin this past weekend (Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Stanford, Pitt, Air Force, FSU, and Navy all lost). This dropped ND from 4^th to 29^th in SOS. Ouch.

The best way to look at the Fiesta Bowl possibility is to go team-by-team. Obviously with Ohio State winning and going 13-0, now there are essentially six teams vying for one slot:

1. MIAMI

REMAINING SCHEDULE: 11/30 @ Syracuse, 12/7 vs Virginia Tech

FOR THE IRISH TO PASS THE CANES….: Miami would have to lose at least one of these two games. And given how far ahead the Hurricanes are of ND in the human polls (#1 vs #7), it may take losing both of these games to assure that the Irish move ahead of Miami. Of the two games, I think there is a better chance (as crazy as this sounds) of Miami losing to Syracuse this weekend than Virginia Tech the following weekend. For one, Syracuse is a road game to Siberia on a holiday weekend; the Virginia Tech game is at home. Second, Syracuse is playing pretty good football right now, having won 3 of their last 4; Virginia Tech has lost three in a row, including an OT loss to Syracuse. Finally, it is a classic "sandwich game" for Miami, plunked right in between the huge win over Pitt to move into sole possession of the Big East lead and the highly anticipated matchup versus the Hokies. I don’t know if Syracuse will win (they probably won’t), but I’d take the points for sure.

2. OHIO STATE

REMAINING SCHEDULE: Season concluded.

FOR THE IRISH TO PASS THE BUCKEYES….: The NCAA would have to invoke a rule disallowing BCS participation to schools whose fans plunder their own cities after big wins. Highly unlikely. Break out the pepper spray! The Buckeyes are going to Tempe!

3. OKLAHOMA

REMAINING SCHEDULE: 11/30 @ Oklahoma State, 12/7 Big XII Championship Game vs Colorado

FOR THE IRISH TO PASS THE SOONERS….: The Sooners need to lose one of their two remaining games. A two-loss Oklahoma team would almost assuredly fall behind a one-loss Notre Dame. The game in Stillwater this weekend should be interesting. The fact that the Sooners lost to the Cowboys last year will probably be enough to keep them focused, otherwise this would have been a great spot for OU to be caught looking ahead to Colorado. As for the Big XII championship game, keep in mind that last year Texas blew out Colorado 41-7 in the regular season and Colorado rose up and beat them in the Big XII Champion ship Game. Oklahoma did beat Colorado this season, but it was in Norman in the rain and Colorado handed the ball to OU with great field position several times in that ball game. On a dry field in Houston it might be a different story.

4. GEORGIA

REMAINING SCHEDULE: 11/30 vs Georgia Tech, 12/7 SEC Championship vs LSU, Auburn, or Arkansas

FOR THE IRISH TO PASS THE BULLDOGS….: The Bulldogs have to lose one of their two remaining games. There is no way a two-loss Georgia team stays ahead of a one-loss Notre Dame. In fact, it is mathematically possible, with ND picking up some major SOS points this weekend playing USC, that a one-loss ND could pass a one-loss Georgia if some other things fall into place.

5. IOWA

REMAINING SCHEDULE: Season completed.

FOR THE IRISH TO PASS THE HAWKEYES….: The Irish have to win out. Other than Miami having to lose a game or possibly two, this on the surface would appear to be the biggest obstacle to ND moving into the #2 slot in the BCS – a one-loss team that is ahead of ND and has no more games left to play. Legitimate concern, but let’s break down each of the components of the BCS and try our best to put any of these fears to rest. Here is why, if the other contenders all lose a game, a one-loss ND will finish ahead of a one-loss Iowa. 

Right now, the BCS standings look this (remember, the lower the BCS score the better):

5. Iowa 12.43
6. USC 13.37
7. Notre Dame 13.83

Ignore USC, since ND beating them will automatically remove them from the Fiesta Bowl argument. So ND basically has to make up 1.4 BCS points on the Hawkeyes. Looking at the four BCS components:

HUMAN POLLS

Right now they look like this:

Right now Iowa’s composite human poll points are 3.5; Notre Dame’s is 7.0. (The average of the two polls combined.) So if all of the other essential things play out that need to for the Irish to go to Tempe (Miami, Oklahoma, Georgia losing, ND beating USC, and all three falling behind ND in the human polls – which for Miami may require two losses. Maybe not, though.), over the next two weeks the Irish stand to have their composite human poll ranking go up to 3.0; Iowa’s could go as high as 2.0. So an overall gain of 2.5 points right there.

So after looking at just the human polls, the Irish are back ahead by 1.1 BCS points. However, we need to look at everything, so let’s go to part two.

COMPUTER RANKINGS

They look like this:

Right now, ND’s composite computer points are 4.67; Iowa’s are 6.33. If everything played out according to what ND inherently needs, the best Iowa could hope to pick up on the Irish here would be .67. I won’t bore you with all of the math; that’s what I came up with. That is with the caveat that computers can be funny and it’s not nearly as linear as predicting the human polls because computer rankings can be influenced by many things, but I think I’m pretty close on this one. So after two BCS areas, the Irish are still ahead of Iowa by .43.

 STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE

ND took a shellacking in this category last week. Playing Rutgers and then having your entire schedule play like Rutgers on the same day will do that. Fortunately, the Irish stand to gain big-time strength of schedule points this week. First, they play 9-2 USC. That will help. Second, their opponents’ schedules look like this:

Wake Forest @ MARYLAND

West Virginia @ PITTSBURGH

Florida @ FSU

BC @ RUTGERS

And of course, on December 7^th, we (that includes you, Brian Stokes) will root for the Naval Academy to trounce the Army.

I haven’t dug down as far as our opponents’ opponents but suffice to say, with so few games left, that will have minimal impact on where we end up in SOS. So by picking up USC, and assuming our opponents win a couple games this week, that should move us from 29^th back into the high teens in SOS, maybe even better. Conversely, Iowa’s opponents are all finished for the year, except for Utah State who has one game versus Middle Tennessee State. So Iowa will move little, if at all, in the SOS department.

If the Irish can move from 29^th down to 19^th in SOS (very do-able), this will equate to 0.4 in BCS points, giving the Irish a lead of 0.83 on Iowa.

LOSSES

Both ND and Iowa would finish the season with one loss. This category will have no bearing on rankings as pertains to the Fiesta Bowl.

QUALITY WINS

Right now, one shot ND has at quality win points is Michigan creeping back into the top 10. However, Iowa beat Michigan as well, so this cancels out as pertains to Iowa. The other possibility would be if USC were to only drop to, say, 9 or 10 after losing to ND. Then the Irish would pick up 0.1 or 0.2. Let’s assume that no quality win points will come into play, though.

Overall, ND wins by a healthy 0.83 margin. Why did I go through all of that on something that has a 1% chance of happening? Because I need a life, that’s why.

1. USC

REMAINING SCHEDULE: 11/30 vs Notre Dame

FOR THE IRISH TO PASS THE TROJANS….: They have to shut down Carson Palmer and play like they did in September and October. Anything less, and we are looking at a 10-2 Irish squad. But if they win, obviously ND passes USC.

It is a 100% lock that an 11-1 Notre Dame team would finish in the Top 6 of the BCS, so under no circumstances would the Irish be shut out of the BCS if they win this Saturday. However, it seems to be common conjecture with much of the media that Notre Dame has already clinched a BCS bid by assuring themselves of at least a 10-2 record this past weekend, and that if they lose to USC this weekend it really doesn’t matter. This is absolutely not true. In the end, as you read this, the Irish are probably about 90% assured of a BCS slot, but there are still a couple of scenarios whereby Notre Dame can wind up on the outside looking in at the BCS. (This section is written with the following assumption: if the Irish are at-large eligible and there are available at-large slots not taken by automatic at-large qualifiers that ND will be selected for a BCS bowl based on attendance, TV ratings, and the ability of ND fans to consume large amounts of alcohol thus pumping up the local economy of the bowl that chooses them.)

1. PLUNDERING AT THE COLISEUM

The BCS rules for at-large eligibility state that a team must have at least 9 wins AND finish in the Top 12 of the BCS polls. As we all know, the human polls have reflected skepticism all year about Notre Dame’s legitimacy as a BCS contender. This cynicism from the football watching public subsided for all of one week – from about the 5:00 mark of the 4^th quarter against FSU to halftime of the BC game. After the BC players got done tearing up the turf at ND Stadium (class act, by the way), the college football world was right back where they started, waving the ND bandwagon right through the intersection. It didn’t help when, a week later, the bandwagon nearly impaled itself on a guardrail against the Naval Academy.

Staying with that theme, the Irish have been installed as a steep 10 point underdog this weekend. They sit at #7 in both human polls. It’s not a stretch to think that the coaches and the writers (especially the coaches) would harshly punish a Notre Dame team that went out to USC and got beaten by a score of, say, 45-7. I know this is unlikely (well, the 45 is highly unlikely, but would any of us really be surprised if ND only scored seven points?), but let’s say it did happen and we got dropped to 14^th in both polls. Certainly, it would make finishing 12^th or higher in the BCS, a necessity to get an at-large bid, a nailbiter to say the least.

2. "BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR" AND WHY THE 12/7 WSU-UCLA GAME MAY DECIDE ND’S FATE

The other BCS rule that could come into play against Notre Dame is the rule whereby a team that does not win its conference championship, yet finishes in the Top 4 of the BCS rankings automatically qualifies for an at-large slot. A quick look at the BCS standings again will help show why I called this "be careful what you wish for":

1. Miami
2. Ohio State
3. Oklahoma
4. Georgia
5. Iowa
6. USC
7. Notre Dame

Let’s pretend for a minute that it is Saturday 11/30. If you’re anything like me, you wake up, eat breakfast, and turn on College Gameday. After about 90 minutes of telling yourself "Dammit, if Lee Corso can do this, so can I!!", you crack open your first frosty beverage and repeat that process several times. On this particular Saturday, you sit down still hoping against hope that the Fiesta dream can stay alive for our boys. So you root for Georgia Tech to knock off Georgia, and it happens. You root for Oklahoma State to continue its hex on Stoops and Company, and it happens. You root for Syracuse to knock off Miami, but knowing that selling your soul to the devil can be detrimental sometime down the road, you realize that the Orangemen can’t pull of the miracle. But still that’s a pretty good day – Oklahoma dead, Georgia dead, Miami’s not dead but, oh well, there’s always Virginia Tech next week.

So going into the USC game Saturday night, the de facto BCS standings actually look like this:

1. Miami
2. Ohio State
3. Iowa
4. USC
5. Notre Dame

Awesome! We spent all day rooting for big things to happen, and now all we need is a win over the Trojans and the Hokies to come up big next week and we’re in Tempe (since we WILL leapfrog Iowa if we win out and Oklahoma and Georgia lose)! I love it when a plan comes together!

However, now let’s say reality sets in and USC knocks off Notre Dame. Doesn’t matter what the score is. Well, the de facto BCS rankings will have Iowa at #3, an at-large guarantee under the rule outlined at the beginning of this section (non-conference winner in the Top 4). They will also have USC at #4, POTENTIALLY a non-conference winner in the Top 4 and thus a guarantee for the OTHER at large bid.

"WHAT?!?!", you say. "Had I known that THIS would happen, I never would have rooted for Oklahoma or Georgia to lose! (since either of those teams winning would have kept USC out of the Top 4)" Hence, the title of this section "Be Careful What You Wish For".

If this scenario plays out, Notre Dame’s only hope of the other at-large bid all of a sudden rests on the shoulders of the UCLA Bruins (and if any of you have watched this team try to tackle over the years, that’s not a good thing). Here’s why – if UCLA knocks off Washington State on Saturday 12/7, USC would win the Pac-10 conference and a trip to the Rose Bowl; in short, USC would no longer be an at-large team. They would be a conference winner. And provided they are still in the Top 12, Notre Dame becomes the second at large team, in all likelihood. If WSU beats UCLA, they win the Pac-10 and USC at #4 in the BCS gets the second at-large slot. Notre Dame likely heads to Dallas to play Texas or Kansas State (which is actually a pretty tasty matchup, just not nearly as big a paycheck.)

So if the Irish lose to USC on 11/30, and USC is in the Top 4 of the BCS rankings heading into the weekend of 12/7, you must root like hell for a team that wears powder blue home uniforms. I know it’s painful, and it might make you guys out there feel a bit too much in touch with your feminine side, but this is what must be done if ND is to get the big pay day. 

The following is this weekend’s schedule, with the team in BOLD type being the one to cheer on in the hopes that our long shot at Tempe stays alive. Again, the games with very minimal, indeterminable impact are not included:

Thursday, November 28
South
Mississippi St. at Mississippi, 7:45 PM ET

Friday, November 29
Midwest
Colorado at Nebraska, 3:30 PM ET

Southwest
Texas A&M at Texas, 12:00 PM ET

Saturday, November 30
East
Wake Forest at Maryland, 12:00 PM ET
Miami at Syracuse, 1:00 PM ET
West Virginia at Pittsburgh, 1:00 PM ET

West
Northwestern St. at Montana, 2:05 PM ET

Alabama at Hawaii, 7:45 PM ET
Notre Dame at USC, 8:00 PM ET

Midwest
UNLV at Colorado State, 3:00 PM ET

South
Kentucky at Tennessee, 12:30 PM ET
Utah State at Middle Tenn. St., 3:00 PM ET
Georgia Tech at Georgia, 3:30 PM ET
Florida at Florida State, 8:00 PM ET

Southwest
Oklahoma at Oklahoma State, 2:30 PM ET

Happy Thanksgiving to all of you, and may this be a very fruitful weekend of football watching for Notre Dame fans. GO IRISH!