I'm writing this before the Michigan game, the one that everyone says we're going to lose. And of all the Kanutski columns, this is the one I'm most hesitant to print.

The reason? Of all the limbs I've climbed on (for example, predicting Davie's firing after Nebraska last year), this will be the most limb-like, the most dangerous and exposed.

Do I believe what I'm about to write? Certainly. Will it be possible to be wrong? Spectacularly.

So let's start small, with a little ensalada. Then I'll work my way up to the big enchilada.

OUR STORY SO FAR

When last we left our hero, Sheriff Willingham was riding into Dodge, looking to clean up that sleepy little city on the south bend of the St. Joe river. Dodge was a town of excuses, of bobbing and weaving, and not much water. The good folks wanted a change.

As the curtain went down, the sheriff had just settled into his office, appointed his deputies, and gone work.

Time passed. The sun rose and set; the winter snow froze, melted, and thawed into a dew. In the spring we saw the results of his efforts. The team (yes, this is a football story) felt renewed, invigorated. A new spirit was very much in evidence, as was a brand new offense.

The fans were delighted. This sheriff is quite a guy, they said to themselves. Could great things be just around the corner? Be cautious, others said. This new offense will take time to learn.

Still, the little town had hope for the coming problematic season, perhaps irrational hope.

COMES THE FALL

It was an optimistic spring and summer, but a Greenspan fall. Not only has the stock market landed on its face, but with Notre Dame just two games into the season, the exuberance of a Maryland victory has given way to fear. Did someone lose that bright new offense we heard about? Is Bob Davie consulting for this team? Say, isn't that Michigan on the horizon?

Yes indeed, that's Michigan, here to play the Irish this weekend.

Despite two ND victories with no offensive touchdowns — or more accurately, because of two ND victories with no offensive touchdowns — most out-of-town commentators are picking the Irish to lose.

The same good people tell us that while our guys will have a winning season, better than Lou's first year, don't expect another Ara in 1964. Get comfortable with 7-4, and if the gods make it 8-3, the gods get to name your children.

Reason, of a sort, says the out-of-towners are right. After all, it took Purdue all of one week to figure out how to create ND offensive mistakes. Use the ND quarterback's inexperience against him. Show Carlyle Holiday two looks per play; show him the second with :01 on the play clock.

What can Rock say in the face of logic like that? Could those no offensive TDs actually be points in our favor? Let's just see.

THE ENSALADA

I said I'd first climb out on a small limb and, well, branch out from there.

So here goes, the salad before the main meal. Notre Dame will beat Michigan. I don't even think it will be close. The game may not be a blowout (unless the Irish offense really gets going), but it won't be a nail-biter either.

First, those defensive scoring flukes weren't flukes at all, but the birth of something beautiful. Count on those "flukes" to be fixtures in this year's Irish program.

Irish special teams, of course, are just points waiting to happen.

And the offense is already good, judging by long drives and time of possession. No defensive team has beaten our offense — only mistakes have done that. And a Ty Willingham team doesn't make mistakes for long.

Look at it another way. Several of those field goals against Maryland could easily have been touchdowns — offensive touchdowns. If the Maryland score is 30-0, with two offensive TDs replacing field goals, the out-of-towners sing a different song, even after Purdue. (See below for more on what hurt us against Purdue.)

No, Notre Dame has a good offense, especially considering how newly installed it is, and quite a bright quarterback running it. The real fluke is no touchdowns, not no offence at all. The whole team, coaches and players, believes that if they keep working the system, the big scores will come. I don't believe they're wrong.

So let's not start our analysis assuming we have no offense. We have a very good team, with all three phases working.

With that in mind, I break the game down like this:
 

Michigan running vs. ND defense — a push or ND by a tad.

Michigan has strong runners and a good offensive line. But watch the Purdue tape, and you'll see that the Irish front seven is capable of playing them even or better. Michigan will come out trying to establish the run (this is Michigan, right?), with some pass mixed in. But Rock says no ensalada. By the second half they'll pass more than want to — and more than is good for them.

Watch for a few break-out runs, but watch also as Courtney Watson's experience shores up last week's bad decisions at OLB and DE. And Watson can't wait to get in this game; he may run wild when Michigan stays on the ground.

I give the Michigan running game, directly or indirectly, one score at best, and perhaps not even that. But let's be generous. The tally so far — Michigan +7.

Michigan passing vs. ND defense — ND easy.

Michigan's passing is much like Purdue's, but with one more hot receiver and a smarter, but sackable, quarterback. We'll see a few long catches, like last week, but no more than a few. The ND coverage talent, though young, is the deepest and most athletic in years. If they perform tomorrow as they've done so far, ND will blanket Wolverines most of the day, and the quarterback will go down.

ND will also get picks, especially as Michigan is forced to do more passing.

I give Michigan's passing game, directly or indirectly, one touchdown at best. And I'll offset that with one ND defensive score. The tally so far — still Michigan +7, or a 14-7 game with the Wolves on offense.

ND running vs. Michigan defense — ND by a bit.

Yes, Michigan is strong in this phase of the game, and we don't have the breakaway running we'd like, unless Carlyle Holiday tucks the ball away or Marcus Wilson matures quickly. But the pound-it-out game is coming along. Look for Rashon Powers-Neal to get the ball more often this week; he's averaging 5.1 five yards per carry. And do look for Carlyle with the ball tucked away. The line is not nearly as bad as the nay-sayers have it — even the out-of-towners admit that.

All told, ND could average four yards or better per carry, and if so, the running game will be good for one score, directly or otherwise. If you think that's generous, remember I gave Michigan a running-game score as well, one they may not get. If ND gets five yards per carry, the running game will feed two scores into the hopper.

But let's be generous, again. One score thanks to good running. The tally so far — tie game, or 14-14. Now let's look at the fun parts.

ND passing vs. Michigan defense — ND easy.

Ty is right that ND is fixable mistakes shy of a very good offense. The scheme works, but there have been breakdowns, mostly Carlyle not seeing the lone open receiver amongst the covered, and receivers not adjusting to blitzes and other changes (the reason many of them were amongst the covered).

Expect real improvements this week, and very different play calling. Marlin Jackson, Michigan's star cornerback, can cover only one man at a time. Look for many receivers to do well. Arnaz Battle is a brilliant broken field runner, Carlos Campbell has hands of glue, Omar Jenkins is as solid as they come, and we have fullbacks and tight ends that can catch and run. This could be a field day for ND passing.

The freshmen may even get into the act, but it's early days for them — there's just way too much to learn. You never know, though; McKnight could get lucky, catch the ball in a perfect open field, and take off.

(By the way, I don't see last week's constant running as a lapse into Davie-land by the coaches. What was happening on the field — Carlyle's inability to make the second adjustment, the receivers inability to make the first — could only be fixed in practice. So they went with the strengths they had — running, strong defense, strong special teams. And they did win. Remember, if Setta makes those two gimme field goals, Notre Dame hangs 30 on Purdue. Ask yourself — did you sense panic on the part of the Irish? Did you think when the score was tied that ND was hosed? Neither did I.)

So I'll give ND two scores via the passing game, either outright touchdowns or passes that set something up. Let's be nice to the doubters and make one of those scores a field goal.

The tally thus far — ND +10. (If you're really pessimistic, feel free to make that ND +6, but if you do, you're on your own.)

Special teams. Need you ask? One score outright, maybe more. Nothing for Michigan from special teams. But let's be pessimistic once more — ND scores "just" a field goal via kickoffs and punts, from a runback that puts Setta in immediate position.

The final — ND +13.

There you have it. Michigan scores no more than twice — once for running, once for passing, and nothing for special teams. The Irish score five times — once for running, twice for passing, and twice via defense and special teams.

That's five scores to two. If you're a pessimist and believe ND gets mostly field goals, it's ND over Michigan 19-14, assuming at least one score is a touchdown.

If you're an optimist, make that ND 27-14 (three touchdowns); or more if the offense doesn't need Setta.

As I said, ND may not blow Michigan away — you'll still see the offense struggle some. But you probably won't see a stomach-acid last play either.

What could make me wrong and skew the result one way or the other? For Michigan, a real run of lucky twists and bounces would give the Irish fits. For ND, that shutout-hungry defense may just get their wish, again.

Look for a fiery game on both sides, but look as well for the out-of-town media to be wrong, as they have been all year. The Rock says the Irish remain undefeated at 3-0.

THE ENCHILADA

And now for the rest of the limb I'm about to climb onto.

We've seen ND struggle on offense, yet the ship plows steadily forward, and wins. These defensive "flukes" are anything but; Notre Dame's defense is major league.

With a scoreless offense and Setta playing below par, ND puts "only" 24 on Purdue. When the offense starts scoring, this team will be scary, rough edges and all. The out-of-town media calls Notre Dame lucky. I call them that good.

So I'll close this article with some predictions for the season, four in all:

• Barring accident (for example, Carlyle goes down), Notre Dame will contend in every game it plays. Prediction one: No blowouts against us, not even Florida State. (By the way, if Holiday gets hurt, we may find Dillingham is well prepared to step in. Ty, like Ara, does things right; think Coley O'Brien, the king of backup quarterbacks at Notre Dame.)
   
• Sagarin has ND in the top ten this week. Sagarin's rating is no swimsuit contest; it's based on strength. With just one loss to someone, ND would make the BCS pre-bowl top 10 easily — quite possibly the top five. I don't see more than one loss this season; and I don't want to pick the team that beats them — it would be a flukey game. Prediction two: ND in the top five BCS at the end of the regular (pre-bowl) season.
   
• With no losses, ND finishes in the BCS end-of-season top four. I'd love to pick an undefeated ND for the title game, but they may not get the chance unless the offense solidifies more quickly than makes sense. Other undefeated teams will have strong claims — Miami and Tennessee to name two of the likelier ones. But with one loss or none, ND beats any bowl team it plays but Miami (and if the Irish lose to the Canes, it won't be a blowout). Post bowl, that puts the Irish behind this year's national champion, and maybe behind one other undefeated team. If the Irish are undefeated, they could even be ahead of that team. Prediction three: ND finishes the year at BCS two or three. Not bad, but not good enough. Still, it's a start.
   
• Recruiting. This is an easy one, since it's already happening. The nation is filled with top recruits of good character. There are plenty of decent people in this country. Ty gives them a Leahy reason to come to Notre Dame, and they fight for those roster spots. Prediction four: However good you think this year's recruiting will be, it will be better than that.

THE LIMB I'M STANDING ON

Golly — did I say all that? You can see the problem I had when I started this column. In my heart, it's ND in the title game, but that depends on the offense becoming a predictable four-TD machine a little too soon.

For me there's no question that ND will soon be six scores per game, with a Ty Willingham offense, a champion pickpocket defense, and scoring special teams. But if the Irish don't hit the BCS top five until after the FSU game, they won't crack the top two in time for the second season.

So here I am, playing my fallback card for this problematic year — ND closes #2 or #3, with one loss or none. That's my conservative call; meanwhile, you're out there saying, gee Rock, sure hope we beat Michigan.

This could be exhilarating (didn't we used to think like this when Holtz was king?), but it could be embarrassing too — by year's end I may wish I'd never put pen to paper (or electron to plasma screen). After all, we could be staring with Ty into a Matthew Arnold future, one that lies before us like a land of dreams, then turns as we wake into a WW I battlefield, littered with fallen hopes.

But no, the ignorant armies that clash by night are citizens of the political world, and this is football — smarter and much more predictable. I'll stick with what I wrote. Anything could happen, but I don't think it will. The odds are too long on our side.

Should I be wrong, however, Alan Greenspan and I will be glad to host next year's first tailgate party, irrational exuberance firmly in hand. Would you like fries with that?

Rationally yours,

The Rock

(c) Rock Kanutski
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