Let's start by looking back at last week's Michigan game. Then we'll look at the Michigan State game coming up and close with a couple of remarks, including our new Pinsticker Specials.

MICHIGAN

The game we saw last week was actually two games, played simultaneously, multiplexed into one exciting contest.

The first is the game of competence. In this game a strong (and competent) Irish team played and defeated a less strong (but no less competent) Michigan team.

The second is the game of errors. In this, an immature Irish offense offered, through unforced errors, to hand the game over to a mature but klutzy Michigan team, who insisted on handing it back.

The game of competence was clearly won by Notre Dame. The game of errors was won by the Irish as well, whose errors cost them less. In the combined game, the Irish naturally won.

We could analyze the game of errors — all the unforced mistakes and Michigan mental mistakes — and peel it away entirely from the other game, but that's a long article indeed. It's enough to say that both teams blew it from time to time.

So let's review just the scoring and other significant play. I said last week that Michigan would score twice — once for good running and once for good passing, and not at all due to defense or special teams. I also said Notre Dame would score five times — with one score provided by running, two by passing, one by defense, and one by special teams.

While the game of errors skewed our predictions, Irish fans can take heart. The unforced-error-free Irish team is strong in all three phases.

Briefly, I count the game this way:

     First Irish TD — Clearly part of the game of competence. Running and passing equally responsible for the score, including a great 41-yard pass from Carlyle Holiday to Stovall. Excellent offense.

     First Michigan fumble — Not an unforced Michigan error, but caused by good Irish play. Part of the game of competence, and a win for the D.

     Next Irish drive — More good offense, though Holiday is now throwing behind his receivers on crossing patterns, something he would do all game. Since this is a product of Carlyle's inexperience as a pocket passer, I expect the pattern to be corrected as the season progresses, perhaps as early as this week. I therefore count these passes as part of the Irish game of errors. Remove them and you're looking at a potent Irish offense indeed. There were many drives like this in the game.

     Irish interception — An unforced error, as noted by many commentators. Holiday failed to "look off" his receiver. Mistakes like this will disappear.

     Ryan Grant fumble — An excellent 72-yard drive, due mainly to great passing, killed by an unforced error at the goal line. In the game of competence, this is an Irish passing score.

     Irish safety — A score by the defense. Tuck played very well against a Michigan offensive line; not a Michigan breakdown.

     Second Irish touchdown — Set up by great defense, the Duff fumble recovery at the Michigan 27. The drive was aided by a Michigan holding penalty, so we won't hand the offense credit for this one. A score caused by defense.

     As the half ends, with errors factored out, we have four Irish scores to none by Michigan, or 23-0. With errors factored in, we saw three Irish scores to one Michigan score, or 16-7.

     The rest of the game follows a similar pattern. Michigan gets a well-deserved passing score (the field goal, set up by excellent throws to Edwards and Joppru), and then gets a running score after another ND unforced error (when Battle fumbles the kickoff on the ND 32). Two Wolverine scores, one a gift. Errors removed, the game is now 23-3. Errors in, it's 16-17.

     ND recovers with a beautiful passing drive and score (capped by Ryan Grant's short run), then kick a field goal following a fumble recovery. Michigan gets a passing touchdown to close the scoring.

Factoring out errors, the final score is 32-10 — six scores by Notre Dame, two thanks to passing (including the one Grant fumbled away), one due to both running and passing (the first drive), and three by the defense and/or special teams (the safety, the TD following the fumble, the field goal following the fumble). Again, factoring errors out, Michigan scores just twice.

With errors in, the Wolves get two more scores (the first quarter interception, the TD following Battle's fumble) and the Irish lose a score (Ryan Grant's goal line fumble).

Put simply, without errors the game is six ND scores to Michigan's two. With errors, it's five ND scores to four. Either way, ND wins, and deserves to. The final of the combined game — 25-23.

MICHIGAN STATE

That was the week that was. I see the coming game this way:

Michigan State running vs. ND defense — ND easy.

There should be no running scores by State. (By "running score", I mean a drive sustained by great running. A great passing drive capped by a two-yard run is a passing score.) If the Spartans do get their running game going, ND will deserve the trouble that will cause. It shouldn't happen.

Michigan State passing vs. ND defense — MSU, but not greatly.

It isn't hard to imagine the ND passing defense shutting down the Spartan passing attack, with or without Charles Rogers. The Irish will play Rogers physically; watch for some crushing (and intimidating) hits. With State's running game shut down, they will go into forced-to-pass mode; then watch as Tuck and Hilliard put on pressure from the line. This should be a great matchup.

However, Rogers is undeniable talented, and Smoker can play, so we'll give them one, or perhaps two scores, via the passing game. Let's make that one TD and a field goal.

It's hard not to credit the ND defense with a score here, though. All that passing spells opportunity for a team that specializes in scoring by defense. So let's give the Irish D a score as well, a runback that sets up a TD.

The tally so far — MSU +3, or 10-7 against the Irish.

ND running vs. Michigan State defense — ND.

The Spartans will attack the Irish rushing game, and partly succeed. But look for continued improvement in the Notre Dame running game, as we've seen all year. I'll give two scores to the Irish for running, one late in the game.

So far — ND three scores to two, or ND 17-10.

ND passing vs. Michigan State defense — ND.

It's true the Spartans have a creditable defense, but I believe we'll get a score here as well, perhaps two. We'll tally just one, though — ND four scores to two, or 24-10.

Special teams — another score by each; conservatively, field goals.

The final — ND five scores to three, or 27-13 by this reckoning.

Once more, the game of errors could skew this greatly. But I'd be surprised to see a reprise of either the late nineties Spartan blowout game or the more recent heart-stoppers. Errors will play a factor until the ND offensive fully matures, but that's accounted for in by tally by field goals rather than touchdowns. With a powerful offense, those five ND scores equals 35 points.

ND may not survive another giveaway fest, but again, I don't expect many more of those while Ty Willingham is the coach.

A NEW FEATURE — PINSTICKER SPECIALS

When Lou, Dan, and Ara roamed the sidelines, we played the pinsticker game. You remember — we took a look at the week's other games, and then stuck voodoo pins in the bobblehead of each team we needed to lose. These are teams that are either higher ranked than ND or offer a threat from below; they are also teams that conceivable could lose. It's a waste of pins, for example, to load up the Nebraska bobblehead when they play Troy State.

So in honor of the Willingham era, we're reviving the pinsticker tradition this week. This column has called for an 11-0 or 10-1 season, with a pre-bowl finish high in the top ten. How do we get there from our lowly perch on the 12th rung?

First, we beat MSU.

Second, we load up this week's bobbleheads with the best thin steel we own:

• Tennessee over Florida — A loss either way would be good, but let's put that sunshine dog to rest. Gators get the pins.
• Texas A&M vs. Virginia Tech — A&M is ranked lower than ND. Hokies get the pins.
• USC vs. Kansas State — You might think we're saving the Trojans for our own heroics, but let's not toy with them. Trojans get the pins.

And there you have it, three rungs on the ladder. Not bad for the fourth week. If voodoo rules the world, we'll get our wish. Ninth in the polls by Sunday night.

Magically yours,

The Rock

(c) Rock Kanutski
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