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Irish Prepare to Battle Rival Michigan
UHND.com - Frank Vitovitch
9/11/2003
Notre Dame, Ind (UHND) - Notre Dame will face its first major test of the season this weekend when they travel to Ann Arbor to play Michigan in front of 108,000+ in the Big House. Which Notre Dame team will we see? The team that struggled mightily on offense for three quarters? Or will we see the team that scored 20 points in the fourth quarter and then went on to win in overtime?
Michigan will present a tougher challenge than Washington State. Michigan will enjoy the home field advantage this weekend and will be starting a veteran quarterback, John Navarre, who is making his mark in the Michigan record books. Navarre hasn't exactly lit up the scoreboard this year so far though. In Michigan's two contests against Western Michigan and Houston, Navarre has completed 32 of 63 passes for 381 yards and 3 touchdowns. These aren't bad numbers at all, but one would think Navarre would complete more than 50.8 percent of his passes against the defenses of Western Michigan and Houston.
What has helped Navarre is the play of Chris Perry who has rushed for 416 yards in just two games. Perry and his fellow running backs abused the Houston and Western Michigan defenses to the likes of 734 yards. That's an average of 367 yards or good enough for tops in the NCAA. That number will go down once Michigan starts facing some better defenses, but its still impressive.
Perry and Michigan haven't faced a defense like Notre Dame's yet though. With the return of Courtney Watson, who sat out last week, and with the return of Cedric Hilliard to the starting lineup, Big Ced played but didn't start against Washington State, the Notre Dame front seven will be at full strength. With a healthy Hilliard, who has been practicing with the first team, and Darrell Campbell in the middle at the tackle positions, Notre Dame will be able to clog a lot of running lanes up.
Watson will team with Brandon Hoyte to give Notre Dame two aggressive, hard hitting, sure tackling linebackers to contain Perry as well. Hoyte is always flying to the ball and lays the wood when he hits someone. Seeing him with Watson at the same time will be fun to watch. Add into the mix Derek Curry who had a good pick in coverage last week, and you have an excellent line-backing corps. Defensive end Justin Tuck also looked improved against the run as did Kyle Budinscak.
The key for the defense will be the health and performance of the secondary. Everyone in the secondary had their turn getting beat last week including All American Vontez Duff. Dwight Ellick and Jason Beckstrom both left the field with injuries against Washington State. Beckstrom should be good to go against the Wolverines, but Ellick's return is doubtful. If Beckstrom plays, the secondary should be ok. A lot of Washington State's success through the air was to the tight ends. The return of Watson will help that area since Watson is an excellent cover linebacker.
If the secondary can force Michigan to run the ball, they will force Michigan into playing against their strength which is the front seven. Despite Perry's success against Western Michigan and Houston, I think he will have a tough time running against the Notre Dame defense. If the secondary however gives up a few big plays, Navarre and his young receivers could put up big numbers despite their modest numbers up to this point which would then in turn open up their running game.
On offense, Notre Dame needs to play 60 minutes like they did the final 15 last week. In the fourth quarter last week, everything clicked. The offensive line came together, Carlyle Holiday was hitting his receivers, and Julius Jones and Ryan Grant teamed up to rip apart the Washington State defense. Notre Dame will need that kind of execution from the get go this weekend in order to win.
Some of the early offensive woes were a result of a new offensive line working together for the first time. That much is to be expected. They will need to continue to improve this week in order to open lanes up for Jones and Grant. Both backs showed last week that they are capable of making things happen on their own with breaking tackles and cut backs, but the line will have to give them more room to run early.
Carlyle Holiday must also have a better game. He had a great completion percentage last week, but didn't have many yards and stood in the pocket a little too long. Holiday is a gifted runner and for the Notre Dame offense to move the ball against Michigan, Holiday is going to have to break some runs early. If Holiday can avoid the rush and bust a couple of big gains, it'll make Michigan think twice before they blitz. When he does pass however, he must have more zip on the ball and more accurate when he goes deep. His deep balls hung in the air way too long against Washington State. He had receivers open a couple of times, especially Maurice Stovall, but the passes hung in the air too long and were broken up. His short passes were on target which was an improvement from last year, but his deep ball was weak.
In general, Holiday showed some promise last week despite the fumbles and not feeling the pressure at times. He hit his fullback for a pass, he hit his tight end Jared Clark four times, and his only pick was on a deep ball that Maurice Stovall could have out jumped the defender for.
Notre Dame was sloppy last week, but there were signs there that this could be a very good team. If Notre Dame improves on its pass protection and opens holes for its backs early, Notre Dame will win this game. The defense is fine. Some were worried about the defense after the Washington State game, but without the Notre Dame turnovers, the defense would have only surrendered 14 points. The defense was also without its leader Courtney Watson, without a 100% healthy Big Ced in the middle, and without two of its corners in Beckstrom and Ellick. All in all, the defense played great under the circumstances.
Whoever runs the ball better is going to win this game. Notre Dame's defense is more than up for the challenge of shutting down Chris Perry and the Michigan ground game. Can Notre Dame's offensive line continue to grow and allow Julius Jones and Ryan Grant to get into the Michigan secondary where they can make things happen though? If the answer is yes I say Notre Dame wins this game. If the answer is no, I can't see the Notre Dame passing game being strong enough on its own at this point to beat Michigan without a strong running game.
One advantage that Notre Dame will hold going into this game is close game experience. Notre Dame's younger players and new starters already have a close game under their belts. Michigan has not been challenged yet this year. Their two games have not been close at all. Notre Dame on the other hand went to over time last week. They had their backs up against the wall and responded excellently.
My prediction?
The young line steps it up a notch, eliminates some of the mental mistakes we
saw against Washington State (missed assignments, false starts, etc) and Notre
Dame runs to a victory in Ann Arbor.
Notre Dame 24 Michigan 21
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