Ran across a local where I live. Here in the 'hood he's called "The Real Deal." Why? I don't know.

It must mean something though. When they mention his name, the gals round here all smile, like there's something worth knowing, some secret back in the dark of the neighborhood past.

Then they give me a look that says "Don't ask; won't tell."

So I don't.

Interesting guy though, The Real Deal. The 'hood I'm talking about is a plaid pants ghetto in a sweet little Red-state suburb, so it's no surprise he's a long-time Notre Dame fan.
 

RedState Ale and Barnuts

One day recently I took him to a bar (where else?) and got his thoughts on this year's team.

First off he questioned my choice of place. It's what used to be called a "fern bar" (all presentation) -- updated, of course, to the New Millenium. So no ferns. Mr. Man (the name of the place) was aiming for that neo-retro-Fifties bistro look, but it seemed like these Fifties had passed through the Eighties and stopped at Sex and The City.

Needless to say, I go for the happy hour food -- cheap, good. Pass the nuts.

"Royko never took me to a place like this," The Deal grumbled, looking around at the black pants wait-staff and the polished barware. "Isn't there a Bucket of Suds somewhere around here?"

Royko, great -- thanks for mentioning it. Something else to shoot for.

"I come for the burgers," I said, hoping meat would throw him off the scent.

We settled in and I switched topics to the Irish, the ones in shoulder pads.
 

This Year's Team

"Right away," he said, "ya gotta understand I'm a pessimist. Capital P. Got that? I warned you."

"You're on," I said. "So give."

"Plus I know stuff. Can't tell you how. But I know stuff."

I put that one on hold. We'll see as the year wears on.

"So what's up with this year's guys?" I asked amiably, as two pints of RedState IP Ale appeared in front of us.

"I'll tell ya. Just listen." I wasn't talking, but I shut up anyway. "This year, the wise guys think we're just so-so. Frankly, I think we're so-so too. That means you must think we're pretty damn good."

He knows me too well. I admit it. I think this year's team will surprise a lot of people, on the good side.

"So lemme tell you what's in the way, the big list of what I'm worried about. If you can climbing over that pile and still feel good, you've earned it. Maybe."
 

Getting Defensive

"Ready?" he continued. "Let's look at the defense first. Great front four, right?

"So here's The Deal talking -- me, The Real Deal. Can Justin Tuck stop the run? Can he hold position? Remember, at the end of the year they had him figured out. Pull him downfield and run inside him. So for me, the jury's out on the guy. Great kid, so I hear, and I do hear stuff. But still.

"If I'm Opponent U., I run right at him. Bang. Make him pay to play. And passing, I pass short and quick where he shoulda been. Bang. Make him think about position, slow those happy feet down.

"Then Greg Pauly. Last year, pretty so-so in a better-than-so-so way. Got that? Guy's pretty good, wish he was better. This year? The word's out he's climbing, he's up to snuff. Great, show me -- take out Ced, put in Pauly, and let's see the same results. Coaches are hot on the guy. Great. Show me.

"Linebackers. Yeah, I see you smiling. So what? Did you count how many crossing patterns those stars failed to cover? First the tight ends, then the wides, then the RBs. They killed us early and often. End of the year, they killed us regular. Sure our LBs will get tackles, but I worry. Can they cover? If not, that's a hole. Don't take many of those to get yourself scored on.

"Backfield. I read the ND papers, all glow. Ellick this, Bible that, Burrell this plus that. Duff, star. Beckstrom, star-in-waiting. Parrish, star-in-short-pants-in-waiting.

"So what's missing? What made last year so special back there, when they were consistently special? Gerome Sapp. When Gerome Sapp's brain was on the field, the guys rocked. When Sapp's brain was off the field, the backfield struggled. Sapp's brain. I tell you, we'll see the drop-off if someone doesn't do what Sapp did -- get everybody lined up, play after play.

"So who's stepping up? They tell me the job falls to Earl. Great kid, so I hear, and I do hear stuff. But we'll see. If there's a drop off, it won't be a flying-around-at-lightspeed problem -- we got lots of that. It will be mental.

"Sapp's brain. You heard it here first."

The Deal took a pull of his RedState IP, then pulled a face. "No Pabst in this joint?"
 

A Two-Time Offender

"OK," he said quickly. "Don't get defensive. Sorry I mentioned it. This is on you, right? Good stuff."

He took another pull.

"Now the offense, since you asked. Here the world is worrying with me. I saw Montana. I once dated a girl who knew people who saw stuff. Got me? Now that's back in the day, but still. Carlyle Holiday? Show me. 'Nuff said.

"The line? Well ... 'Nuff said."
 

I interrupted. "Sure, Deal. Lack of experience, etc., etc. I got that. But these linemen aren't nobody. These are good people. LeVoir playing guard? He's gotta be the most mobile big guy on the planet to put him at guard. The word on both centers is great. And the coaches love our tackles, at least the starting ones. This could be a new regime on the o-line. This could be the year we come out from under Joe Moore's shade."

"May he rest in peace," said The Real Deal. "And may God give us another one."

He paused, then looked at me straight.

"Look, this is The Deal talking. The line? Show me. The blocking schemes changed last year, zone blocking they call it, and we still don't know for sure the guys can handle it. Great guys, so I hear, and remember, I hear stuff. But zone blocking's different. You think guys on the line are turning it around? Great. I think they're a two-time offender, last year and this, until they show me.

"Will they be terrible? Not really. But look at the great teams. Ara, Lou, Frank -- they all had great lines, and great line coaching. The jury's out.

"Backs, we're OK with what we got -- if Jones picks up the blocking schemes. Remember, that was the problem last year, whiffing on the blocks. Fullback, we'll probably be OK. I'll give you that.

"Receivers. Don't get me started. Come back for the ball, fellas. You got your quarterback flying for his life, down the line, looking to dump off. So where's the dump-off crew? Racing for the end zone?" He paused in exasperation. "Come back for the ball, guys."
 

Questions, Questions

"OK," I said. "I'll give you some of what you said. But only some. How about some questions? Sure the West Coast offense is complicated. But don't you think--"

"Yeah, it's complicated. Yeah, I do think. I told you, it's too soon for this year. Too many guys need to be on the same page. And there's a lot of pages. Too soon for this year. Line, backfield, receivers -- not same page. Not this year. Not same page.

"Year. Page. Got it? Next question."
 

"How about Brady Quinn? Does he have a shot at playing?"

"Sure, if he's really unlucky -- he can spend the off-season living down his freshman mistakes. Look, remember Sapp's brain? How about Carlyle's brain? Quinn's brain? Smart kids, so I hear, and I oughta know. But still. Too soon for this year. That whole offense, it's too soon."
 

"So how would you beat this offense?" I asked. "After all, there's still a lot of talent, even if it's green. They're going to be better than last year -- even you have to admit that. Last year they won ten games with that offense in a lesser state of development."

"Let's leave ten games out for a minute," The Deal replied. "Weren't you watching last year? You beat us with the blitz. Weren't you watching?

"Look, it's going to be a war out there, a mental war. Our guys are better than they were, sure, but any DC worth his butter is going to tailor a blitz package just for our boys. Lots of data floating on last year's tapes, and this year's mistakes will add to it.

"Bottom line, until our offense solves the blitz -- and by that I mean the 17 blitzes they didn't solve last year plus the 12 new ones the baddies'll dream for us this year -- our boys will be limping.

"Year. Page. Got it?
 

"Now let me ask you a question." The Real Deal turned to me, flecks of non-Pabst on his dapper goatee. "Everyone's hyped about Julius Jones, how he's going to break a couple, win a couple we wouldn't have won. So I'm asking. How many whiffs is he going to give us in return, watching blitzers go right past? What's the trade in that -- good or not so good?

"And if he shows he doesn't know the blocking schemes real-time -- I mean, how could he? -- does he become this year's Jared Clark? You know, when he's in, he gets the ball. Bang -- there goes the advantage of having him."
 

"OK," I countered, "I'll give you that -- maybe. So if this team were to go 10 wins, 11 wins, or even, if they were to go all the way, how would they do it?"

I smiled, even smirked. I had him arguing against himself.

He smirked back. "You really think they're going all the way? OK, how do they do it, if? Hey, weren't you watching last year? Defense, braino."

Then the smirk died. "Sorry," he said, looking sheepish. "You didn't deserve that. It's this RedHead IP talking. My bad.

"But hell, you know how they gotta do it, just like Ty does, just like Diedrick does, just like Baer does, just like this guy pulling taps for us does. Defense. If you kill 'em with defense, you can smoke 'em all the way home. By the way, special teams -- in my book, that's defense. Just like interception returns for TD -- all defense."
 

"So you like our scoring defense?" I asked. "Glad you like something."

"Love it. Who wouldn't? It's the way defense should be played. Did I tell you I played defense? Told you I know stuff.

"But remember -- crossing patterns, linebackers; Sapp's brain. Crossing. Brain. You heard it here first.

"Look, the defense has work to do on its side of the ball too. You can't go undefeated if you can't beat Norm Chow. And not every team is going to hand you a Chris Rix bag of mistakes. Rutherford's going to be better. Even Navarre could be heaps sharper, mentally, than he was."
 

Some Season for the Stew

I cut to the chase, asked him for his call on the season.

"Realistically? 9-3 tops. That's tops. But more like 8-4. Write it down, The Real Deal said so." And he inhaled the last of his beer.

"Hey, this RedNeck stuff ain't too bad. Spot me another?"

Sure, I told him. He sucked that down in two long pulls. I guess free beer ranks right up there with Pabst. Good thing we didn't order dinner. The stew in this place is terrible.
 

I thought maybe we were done, but I wasn't sure. So I tried one last question, this one from the wild blue yonder. Tilting my RedState his way, I asked playfully, "So, do you think Condoleezza Rice's political trouble will tarnish Willingham, given his strong and public friendship with her?"

He looked at me a moment, then blinked: "Huh? What political trouble?"

I finished my brew and stood up -- I knew we were done.
 

And The Rock Says . . .

By the way, everything The Real Deal said was right. Well mainly. (I still worry about Condoleezza Rice.) But pessimists like The Deal die young, and Rock says we're going undefeated.

Offense -- yes, it will be uphill. The Deal nailed it. Jones' blocking is the problem no one is talking about -- yet. And yes, there's still those pesky blocking schemes.

But get ready for some surprises off the blitz -- quick-release passes that don't depend on the line figuring out those blocks and holding them forever. And get ready for Holiday. Carlyle's gonna lay a lot of passes into butter-soft hands. And do it all over the field.

Defense -- give The Deal his due. Sapp's brain and crossing patterns. What he didn't say was scoring defense (and special teams) should climb a notch, even by last year's standards. The D has a taste for endzone blood. Rock says they're addicted and Duff will drive them to drink it again and again, either personally or by inspiration.

Can the good guys win them all? I won't be the one that says they can't. Let's let them say it for themselves. Maybe they won't get around to it.
 

More on last season in a later column. Welcome to Notre Dame stadium, Cougars. Watch and learn. The score:

ND 24 (10 points on offense)
Wash State 10 (maybe)

If the ND offense clicks, it gets even worse, or better, depending on who you're yelling for. Enjoy.
 

Yours in the future,

The Rock