Notre Dame Playoff Watch – Scoreboard Watching Week 9

Photo: Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire
Photo: Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire

The common line of thinking following Notre Dame’s heartbreaking loss to Florida State is that if the Irish win out, they are almost certain to find themselves in the playoffs.  We all know how much sense human voters make sometimes though – see 1993 for example.  So with that in mind, it’s time for Notre Dame fans to start some scoreboard watching.

Even with the bye week for Notre Dame this weekend, there are a lot of rooting interests for Notre Dame fans this weekend.  Here’s a rundown of some games that have the potential to impact Notre Dame’s playoff chances.

Opponent Watch

One way Notre Dame can improve its resume is to have some of its victories look more impressive.  This weekend a couple Irish opponents have a chance to help out the Irish.

  • Michigan @ Michigan State.  Right now, Notre Dame’s 31-0 win over Michigan doesn’t look all that impressive.  The Wolverines however could help Notre Dame out on two levels this weekend.  If they were to somehow knock off the #8 Spartans, it makes Notre Dame’s win look more impressive and knocks out one of the 1-loss teams Notre Dame will be fighting for a playoff spot.
  • Stanford vs. Oregon State.  The now unranked Cardinal hosts the Beavers on Saturday.  For this win to look anything close to impressive, Stanford can’t lose this game.  A win still won’t erase the beat down Stanford suffered to Arizona State last weekend, but the more wins they end up with the better for Notre Dame.

Unbeaten Teams

There are only three unbeaten teams left right now that matter in terms of the playoffs.  Even if each were to lose though, they all likely would finish the season with a better resume than Notre Dame so the Irish need to hope one of these teams drops two games.

  • #1 Mississippi St @ Kentucky.  While Kentucky is 5-2, this would be one of the biggest upsets of the year if Mississippi State lost this weekend.
  • #2 Florida State – Off this weekend.  Pretty certain they’ll survive the bye week without any help from the zebras this weekend.
  • #3 Ole Miss @ #24 LSU – This is the best chance for an unbeaten team ahead of Notre Dame to lose this weekend.  LSU is always tough at home and Les Miles pulls one of these games out every year.  A loss by Ole Miss probably won’t drop them below Notre Dame though thanks to their wins over Alabama and Texas A&M.

1-Loss Teams to Watch

  • #6 Oregon vs. Cal.  Not likely Oregon drops this one.  Next week though they face Stanford in what will be one of the most important games affecting Notre Dame’s playoff potential in which they don’t play left this year.
  • #4 Alabama @ Tennessee – After the showing ‘Bama put on last week, I feel a little bad for Tennessee this weekend.
  • South Carolina @ #5 Auburn – The Gamecocks are not ranked and have been pretty up and down all year, but it would not be a shock if the Old Ball Coach worked some magic this weekend.
  • #13 Ohio State @ Penn State – While Ohio State is a bit behind Notre Dame right now they still have a chance for an impressive win later this season against Michigan State.  Penn State lost at Michigan and got beaten down by Northwestern.   This would be a big upset if it happened.
  • #9 Georgia – Off this weekend.

There are some other 1-loss teams not too far behind Notre Dame right now but none that look like they have a great chance to leap frog Notre Dame at any point if the Irish were to win out.  If any start creeping up and the Irish keep winning though, we’ll look at them more closely moving forward each week.

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31 Comments

  1. SO, FINALLY THE COMMITTEE RANKINGS ARE OUT. SURPRISE, SURPRISE, NOTRE DAME IS RANKED 10TH? OLE MISS. LOSES TO 24TH RANKED L.S.U., BUT THEY ARE RANKED HIGHER THAN THE IRISH. NOTRE DAME LOSES A CONTROVERSIAL GAME AT #2 RANKED. DEFENDING CHAMPION, F.S.U, AND MICHIGAN STATE IS RANKED AHEAD OF THEM. NOTRE DAME SHOULD BE RANKED NO LOWER THAN 6TH BY THIS BRILLIANT COMMITTEE. ONCE AGAIN THE BIAS AGAINST NOTRE DAME IS CLEARLY OBVIOUS. AS IS THE PREFERENTIAL TREATMENT TOWARDS THE S.E.C. EVEN IF THE IRISH WIN OUT, IT WILL BE VERY HARD TO MAKE THE FINAL FOUR.

  2. Well get ready for the playoff committee shit-show. No one will be happy just yet. Uncharted waters with this system so cannot critique one way or the other till end of season. Like to see more teams in the playoff such as 8 but just not feasible schedule and time wise. ND needs to win out remainder of schedule and this gives them a good fighting chance for the playoff. No reason to get crazy now with the committee selections, just win each week to take care of business. Good luck Irish….

  3. So you are saying if we squeak by SC and ASU on the road then playoffs are out of question?
    Whatever you are smoking I’ll pass.

  4. Talk – talk – talk – I think we all agree that the Irish need to win out – but we need not to just win out but to win out with strong convincing dominant wins especially Arz. St. and USC. If that does not happen making the playoffs is a pipedream

  5. Army used alcohol and women to recruit players??
    I mean I can go several different ways with this. The first one would be, it sure as hell didn’t work.

  6. You mentioned Michigan St was ahead of us. You are referring to a poll that does NOT decide who is in the playoffs.
    Anytime man.

  7. Thanks for the help. So they’re Realy not gonna decide who is in the playoffs based on today’s polls huh? Well Snatch me baldheaded

  8. Let me help you Duffy57. The USA poll will not determine who top 4 teams will be.
    So relax buddy. We are right where we need to be.

  9. We can complain til we are blue in the face. The only thing we can control is winning out. Iron bowl will knock out Alabama or Auburn. Alabama still has 3 difficult games left. And MSU still has Alabama on road plus all these teams will likely see Georgia in SEC championship.
    All we have to do is win baby win.
    I just save some of you time. Yw.
    Go Irish!!

  10. Boy I tell you… that Stanford vs. Oregon game next week might be the biggest opponents game we’ll watch all year. Knocking off Oregon would put us in a prime position (making Stanford look better) as well as seeing that Auburn plays ‘Bama later this season, if we win out we’d 100% be in the playoff. Praying to God we re-match with FSU.

  11. How is MSU ranked higher than us? We lost by 4 to the number 2 team in the country, they lost by 19 to the number 6 team. ( whom they are also ranked ahead of by the way). Our margin of victory over the 2 common opponents (Micigan, and Purdue) is greater, and our schedule has been tougher. WTF

      1. I’m in TX.

        And while I’m not really following Marshall, I’ll say I care. Are we really better off with a playoff where an undefeated team is left out over a 1 or 2-loss team?

        Just saying, if the point is to declare a true champion, and I’m an AD of a school that the system excludes, I’ll have a trophy made and raise a banner. Don’t like it, schedule them and beat them.

        I mean pitch your fit about how undeserving they are, after they’ve lost.

  12. The sad truth is that this new playoff system will once again come down to human voting and favoritism just like when we had a coaches and sports writers poll at the end of the last bowl game. We will never be able to get away from that…sadly.

    1. And one of the 13 members is Ty Willingham (no hard feelings there, right Ty?). It would be more user friendly if we expanded to six (with the top two teams getting byes) or even eight. But this is a good start to the process. Lesser bowls could be included as part of the playoffs, maximizing their revenue take even more.
      It would add a game or two among the finalists, but would be a little more fair/inclusive than just four. Seeing how many top four teams lose, and the strength of other top teams that will not be not included in this “final four”, it would be more legitimate. But that will come from the several deserving who are excluded this time.

  13. Looking ahead at what can be is fun-if this or that happens to that team or the other. But as we know, until the BCS playoff rankings come out later this month, all these other rankings are irrelevant re: the final four.
    I’ve got to believe one “quality loss” (FSU) will trump losses Oregon, Ohio State and others have already had. ND will yet have opportunities against Arizona State and college’s highest-ranked D’ (Louisville) for statement wins.
    I also agree with Frank’s observations how past opponents like FSU,Stanford, and even Michigan (good luck w/that, though) and future opponents’ success like Louisville and even $C (on weekends they don’t play us) can assist our arrival into that final four.

    Bottom line- Just win out, irish, which will be no easy task. Two road games, then potential let-down Northwestern trap game before a tough defense from Louisville and the trip to the west coast vs. $C.
    Not exactly a cake walk.
    Irish need to take care of what they can control- and let the roll of the dice re: other teams’ games land where they may. That we’re still looking at those end of the year possibilities with all this youth at this point in this season speaks volumes for how far this program has come. Don’t underrate, appreciate.

    1. Well put Archangel. I do enjoy reading the what-ifs scenerios the column says and because this is a Notre Dame fan site, this is the only place I will read these things. Prehaps I’m still getting over the call from last week. Anyways, it will be nice to see where we are in the committee’s poll since that is the one that matters. Once we know that we can “officially” root against all the teams around us. Like you said though, it is not cupcakes from here on out so we need to play every week like we did last week or we will be looking at ACC bowl options as opposed to playoff options. Go Irish!

  14. So a couple things here…

    Why the hell Oregon is ahead of us in the rankings is truly unbelievable!! The media LOVES Oregon and I just don’t know why. Is it the uniforms? They lost BAD to Arizona AT HOME!!! Does that make sense to anyone why they are still ahead of us? The only one loss team that deserves to be ahead of us is Alabama for sure. They lost in the closing seconds at undefeated Ole Miss. No question about that one…however, you could make the argument that the FSU loss for ND is still a “better” loss than the Bama/Ole Miss and ND should be ranked ahead. I think it is because we lost at a later time, plus Bama is Bama…

    And two, if Ole Miss loses, no way they are ranked ahead of us either. LSU has two losses right? Would that make sense to anyone? Who cares at that point that they beat Texas A&M and Bama!! They just lost to two loss LSU. The reason Ohio State is ranked so low is because they lost to VTech who sucks. The same better go for some of these SEC schools when they do lose.

    1. They will be ranked ahead of us because they will have 2 quality wins that are much stronger than any wins that we have right now. It makes perfect sense and if the roles were reversed I would be arguing the same.

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