So losing two players who would have been true freshmen is the difference?

There is one DB in this year's senior class (Motta). That's unacceptable, and that's on Weis. Missing out on Shepard, Darby, Standifer, and Wright may eventually come back to bite Kelly, but not in 2012. What is hurting our secondary in 2012 is Weis's misses and Collinsworth's injury, neither of those are Kelly's fault.

Also, I think we could easily beat UM this year.

USC will be tough, but people forget that scholarship restrictions take a couple years to hit. (Which is why Willingham's self imposed scholarship reduction didn't hit Weis until Year 3). I expect USC to take a step back after this year. Kelly obviously needs to do a better job of recruiting than he did with the class of 2012, but his first full class was very good, and he seems to have a good class coming in 2013 as well.