Last week the Fighting Irish handled the Blue Devils 38-7 and look to continue that trend back in South Bend. This week, Notre Dame faces off against the twenty-third ranked team in the nation, Navy, and look to finish the season strong. For the Fighting Irish to win this game, they will have to be disciplined on the defensive side of the ball. Navy runs a flexbone offense that sets up the triple option from that formation. If the defensive players for the Fighting Irish do their jobs and stay discipline, it will be difficult for Navy to move the ball. On paper, the Fighting Irish defense easily wins the matchup against Navy’s offense. But the way that Navy’s offense is set up, if the defense cheats, there will be some big plays, and Notre Dame might end up on the wrong side of the scoreboard.
Notre Dame is 7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS, and 6 of their 9 games have hit the under.
Betting Odds & Point Spread:
- Game Spread: Opened ND -10 / Current ND -7.5
- Game Total: Opened 55 / Current 54.5
- First Half Spread: ND -4
- First Half Total: 27
- Team Totals: Navy 22 / ND 31
Navy Midshipmen:
Navy comes into this game with a 7-1 record, but the Fighting Irish are their toughest opponents. The Midshipmen have had some easy matchups before walking into South Bend this week. Even though they haven’t played the toughest schedule, they have won easily in most of their games. Their offense is led by quarterback Malcolm Perry, who is a dual-threat. He has 722 yards and five touchdowns in the air and 1,042 yards and 16 touchdowns on the ground. Behind Perry and running the triple option, they have been able to average over 40 points per game in their first eight games of the season. But this week will be an uphill battle against Brian Kelly and his defense.
Navy is 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS, and 5 of their 8 games have hit the over.
The Lines:
Vegas started this week with the Fighting Irish as 10-point favorites and the over-under set at 55. With these lines, Vegas predicted Notre Dame to win 33-22. These lines have since changed, shifting it to a lower scoring game and in the Midshipmen favor. Currently, the lines are Notre Dame as 7.5-point home favorites and the over-under set at 54.5. The current lines are saying that the Fighting Irish will win this game 31-24. Also, 52% of the public and 51% of the money is on Navy; therefore the lines changed in their favor. As for the over-under, 51% of the public is on the under, and 58% of the money is on the over, and that is why there has only been a half-point change since the beginning of the week.
Bet of the Week: (Parlay ND -7.5 and Under 54.5)
The bet of the week has been 7-1 so far; we missed the Virginia Tech game, so now it is time to spice it up and finish the season hot. The first half of this game is what scares me the most because I can see the Fighting Irish lose some discipline on the defensive side and allow a home run type play. But after halftime and some adjustments, Navy’s offense doesn’t scare me, and the Fighting Irish defense will dominate the second half just like they did against UVA. Look for the first half of the game to remind us of the Louisville season-opener where Navy just runs all over us and Ian Book and the offense respond right back. I can see the game being tied or within 3-points at half and then Notre Dame walking away with it in the second. My prediction for the game is 31-17 Notre Dame.
Betting totals, in ANY SPORT, is a form of mental illness.
SHARPS bet sides or money lines, and they stay away from totals.
In sports books, the loudest guy in the room is too often the dumbest guy in the room, and those most loquacious about totals, and their
handicapping thereof are most often the guys with holes in their shoes, scrounging for drink tickets.
“If you’re in the game for 20 minutes and you don’t know who the patsy is, then YOU are the patsy.”.
With some effort, totals bettors can reach the final circle of betting hell-horses.
nice parlay-are you employed by a sports book? A Chummer?
Barring a total collapse, a la that last D series, we should be seeing PJ a lot this afternoon.
Speaking of that last D series, Lea better tell his charges to stay focused since they just witnessed how easy Navy can go down the field.
It’s all about staying healthy and getting backups a ton of playing time.
GO IRISH!
Stupid STs penalty! What’s new?!
But IF ND O can put a TD here and eat up about five minutes then the penalty is actually a blessing in disguise and gets the D some rest.
GO IRISH!
Can really put Navy away with another TD to go up 28-0.
Navy would probably have to take up 30 minutes of game time to get 4 TDs, and that assumed they shut out ND at 28-0.
So these next two possessions on D and then on O are huge!
Go Irish!
Money has moved heavily in favor of Navy. Opening line made no sense at all. Key to this game are Gilman and White, who will shut down the option. Look for something in the 42-14 range in this one
Vote for Pedro
Not much wind here, or even much breeze…what’s here is not a cold breeze, more like a wet room temperature breeze.
So no advantage to a run mostly team. The passing game should not be “weather hindered” and should be wide open all game long.
BGC ’77 ’82
“Room temperature” was a poor word choice. What I meant was that it is not a chilling breeze…”ambient temperature” would be better.
BGC ’77 ’82
Thank you, Bruce, for the clarification.
I was confounded. I had a moment of dangling modifier angst when reading the phrase “wet room temperature breeze.”
Not that there’s anything wrong with hanging out in a “wet room!”
.Enjoy, Bruce. My first Navy game was ’63. Yeah, Roger Staubach. But then, beginning in ’64……………….
.
Duranko, that is the first one I remember…I remember the Iowa game being cancelled because of Kennedy’s death. Gregor came home, heard that news from Mom, and just said, “it’s just as well: It probably would have been another loss.” We’d already set the record for season losses, so what did we need Iowa for?! But meanwhile, there was some recruiting goin on.
BGC ’77 ’82
and well, “wet” refers to the moisture in the air and on the ground…moisture hangs a bit, but has still not yet rained…I think locals might feel it’s more like mid March than mid November…St. Patrick’s Day, or even a Spring scrimmage a couple of weeks before the BG game. This weather is not at all seasonable!
BGC ’77 ’82
yeah, bruce there was some recruiting going on, buy Hughie had loaded the wagon with big studs.
Conjar and Gmitter were on my floor, Hardy and Regner, one floor up, frequent visitors.
Goeddeke was one dorm away, close enough for a wildebeest!.