After months of speculation, Deshone Kizer’s fall from potential top 5 pick to out of the 1st round all together became official last night. Three different NFL teams gave up considerable (that’s putting it mildly) assets to move up in the draft and select a quarterback of the future. None of those teams had Kizer in their sights though. Several advantageous landing spots remain for Kizer though.
Bears, Texans, and Chiefs All Pass on Deshone Kizer
First, let’s run through the teams that passed on Kizer. The Chicago Bears traded up from 3rd overall to 2nd overall to select North Carolina’s Mitch Trubisky. The Tar Heel quarterback had a draft rise similar to last year’s #2 overall pick Carson Wentz. The Bears have been getting roasted for their entire off-season strategy and last night didn’t do much to help.
The Kansas City Chiefs – a team I had marked as a potential landing spot for Kizer – decided that Texas Tech’s Pat Mahomes was their QB of the future and surrendered a 3rd round pick this year and a 1st rounder next year to move up for #27 to #10. Moving up 17 picks for a quarterback that is far from a sure thing from a conference that hasn’t been known to produce quarterbacks on the NFL level cost them a 3rd and 1st next year. That’s A LOT.
The last team to trade up was another team I had thought could roll the dice on Kizer. The Houston Texans need a quarterback NOW and they felt Deshaun Watson was their guy. They traded up from #25 to #12 to select Watson, sending the Browns an extra 1st round pick in the 2018 Draft in the process. Can’t believe I am saying this, but the Browns really crushed this draft with good defensive players and came out of it with an extra 1st rounder for their troubles next year.
So Where Does Deshone Kizer Land
So we can cross off three more teams off the list of potential landing spots for Kizer. Based on the list I made yesterday, that leaves us with the following teams who either need a quarterback to replace an aging veteran, need one now, or have an uncertain situation who could pounce at the value Kizer now presents: Arizona Cardinals, Pittsburgh Steelers, New York Giants, New Orleans Saints, Los Angeles Chargers, New York Jets, Minnesota Vikings, Washington Redskins, Jacksonville Jaguars, Miami Dolphins, Denver Broncos, and Buffalo Bills.
Let’s scratch off the Giants, Redskins, Dolphins, Broncos, and Bills. The Giants are still in win now mode. Daniel Synder would never be forward thinking enough to draft a QB even though they haven’t worked out a deal with Kirk Cousins yet. While those other teams have uncertain quarterback positions, they are all “pot committed” with their current quarterbacks.
- 35. Jacksonville Jaguars – Could they pull the plug on the Blake Bortles Era if Kizer is still there? They should. This would actually be a nice landing spot given the skill position talent Jacksonville has.
- 38. Los Angeles Chargers – The Bolts could select Phillip Rivers successor though they have much bigger needs if they want to win with Rivers now.
- 39. New York Jets – Like Cleveland, this is where quarterbacks go to die. For Kizer’s sake let’s hope this isn’t where he goes.
- 42. New Orleans Saints – The Saints need a QB to replace Drew Brees and are a great landing spot.
- 45. Arizona Cardinals – If Kizer is still available here, I can’t see him getting past the Cardinals who need an eventual replacement for Carson Palmer.
- 52. Cleveland Browns – The Browns had about a million picks left in this draft and next year’s. If Kizer somehow lasts til #52, they would be wise to roll the dice.
- 62. Pittsburgh Steelers – The Steelers were the original best case scenario landing spot I projected for Kizer – just in the 1st round. If they get him at #62, they got a steal.
Look For Someone to Trade Up
One of the great things about the NFL Draft being broken apart into multiple days are the extra trades. Phone lines across the league are burning up right now with teams looking to trade up into the early 2nd round for players they valued as 1st rounders who are still on the board. Kizer is likely one of those players and it shouldn’t surprise anyone if a team trades up to nab Kizer with a 2nd round pick for a lot less than the Bears, Chiefs, or Texans paid last night.
The Cardinals make so much sense for Kizer at #45 and they showed interest throughout the process so if one of these other teams wants Kizer, they could feel impelled to move up ahead of them.