Deshone Kizer’s Complicated NFL Decision Looms

image_gone Photo: Matt Cashore // USA TODAY Sports

Since Deshone Kizer’s hot start to the 2016 season, speculation has run wild that the junior quarterback would be a sure fire first round NFL pick in ’17.  Even a late season slump that has seen the Irish spiral out out of control with Kizer’s inconsistent performances contributing to the Irish demise in 2016 hasn’t squashed that talk.  With the season in the rear view, it’s decision time for Kizer.

Last year Notre Dame lost Will Fuller, Jaylon Smith, CJ Procise, Keivarae Russell, and Ronnie Stanley before their eligibility was exhausted.   All of them, however, were fairly straight forward decisions.

Stanley was a top 10 pick and it was an accomplishment just getting him back for 2015 to begin with.  Smith suffered a devastating injury in the Fiesta Bowl and wouldn’t have played in 2016 even if he had returned.  Fuller got a first round grade and ended up being selected 21st overall.  Procise’s stock skyrocketed last year and had he returned he was looking at a crowded backfield with Tarean Folston and Josh Adams.  Russell’s decision may have been the only one that really wasn’t simple.

As a quarterback though, Kizer faces a completely different set of criteria.  Listening to Todd McShay – one of ESPN’s Draft experts – during yesterday’s telecast, he was not shy about suggesting Kizer should return.  From a physical standpoint, Kizer has the arm and body to be a NFL QB.  From a mental and maturity standpoint though, Kizer still makes a lot of mental errors and hasn’t shown an ability to take over games like an elite NFL quarterback has to do.

Kizer’s stats this year were OK, but take a look at these two stat lines.

  • Player A: 212 of 361, 2925 yards, 26 TDs, 9 INTs, 145.6 Rating
  • Player B: 224 of 441, 3257 yards, 27 TDs, 13 INTs, 135.4 Rating

Fairly similar statistics right?  Players A had fewer interceptions and a better rating but also had fewer attempts so with similar attempts the INTs and yards would have been very similar.

Players A was Kizer in 2016 and Player B was Tommy Rees in 2013.  Neither quarterback had a stellar set of receivers in their respective years.  Both had a young group with very bright futures but for the most part they were throwing to inexperienced receivers.  So in very similar situations, Dehone Kizer’s statistics were AT BEST marginally better than Tommy Rees’s.

RELATED
Notre Dame a Finalist for Clemson DT transfer Scott Pagano

If Kizer weren’t 6’5″, 235 lbs, we are not even having this discussion.  If he’s 6’2, 215 lbs, Kizer would have no decision to make.

Quarterback Needy Teams Atop the NFL Draft Board

All that said, none of that will stop a quarterback needy NFL franchise from reaching for a specimen like Kizer in the hopes they can put him in a situation to succeed.  If the NFL season ended today the top of the NFL Draft would look like this:

  1. Cleveland Browns
  2. San Francisco 49ers
  3. Chicago Bears
  4. Jacksonville Jaguars
  5. New York Jets

If the Jags decide to end the Blake Bortles experiment, all five of those teams could be looking for a quarterback which would make Kizer a very liekly top 5 pick even if experts feel Kizer needs more experience and seasoning to be ready for the NFL.

Of those five teams, stepping into the Jacksonville or New York offense as a rookie wouldn’t be too bad for a rookie.  Jacksonville has Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns at WR and Julius Thomas at tight end.  New York has Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall.  A rookie can do a lot worse than that – just ask my Eagles’s own rookie QB Carson Wentz.

Kizer will have to weigh the benefits of returning for a senior season and setting himself up for potentially a better career by coming in more prepared, versus the very real reality that even if he isn’t as ready as he needs to be he can still be a top 5 pick this year.

Whither Brandon Wimbush?

Now I am going to really complicate matters.  Kizer will also have to weigh the presence of Brandon Wimbush on the Notre Dame roster in his decision making progress.

Should Brian Kelly return to coach Notre Dame – and that’s not a given – we all know he loves a good quarterback derby.   After a year redshirting, Wimbush will be chomping at the bit to compete for the starting role.

RELATED
Pressure is On Brian Kelly to Find Offensive Coordinator

Since he arrived on campus, many reports have suggest that Wimbush could be the best quarterback on the Notre Dame roster but also the most raw. Wimbush will be a junior in 2017 and honestly, Kizer has not done anything to this point to suggest the starting position in 2017 should be handed to him without a fight.

Deshone Kizer’s Record at Notre Dame

That might sound crazy, but remember, Kizer’s career record as a starting quarterback is just 12-11 at Notre Dame.  That record isn’t all on him, but at the end of the day, he’s won one more game than he’s lost as a starting quarterback for Notre Dame.

Throw in the uncertain future of Brian Kelly, and Kizer really has a lot to consider when making his decision.  In many ways its extremely enviable and extremely unenviable.  This will be the most important decision he will likely make in his life.   The result could be the difference in a great guaranteed rookie contract versus a much more long term and lucrative professional career.

The good news for Notre Dame here, is that unlike years past, Notre Dame’s quarterback depth is such that regardless of Kizer’s decision, Notre Dame should be just fine at the position in 2017.  If Kizer returns and locks up the starting position, the Irish have a first round pick leading them.  If Kizer leaves, Wimbush steps in with Ian Book and incoming freshman Avery Davis backing him up.  That is of course assuming Malik Zaire exercises his 5th year graduate transfer option.  Should Kizer leave, Zaire could still return.

Add it all up and Kizer has a lot to consider and a decision could linger – especially if speculation around the future of Brian Kelly continues to linger.

 

 

Latest UHND.com Updates

Recommended For You

19 comments

  1. Alley O'Cat 4 months ago

    I think Kizer should go to the NFL. I can’t see him progressing with Kelly. Sadly, I don’t see Wimbush or any QB thriving long term with Kelly.

    Reply Like Dislike
  2. MikeT 4 months ago

    Kizer has a good arm, but the truth is he never won the big games the games where ND was not favored, in both seasons he played. I wish him well in the NFL, but at that level it takes much more than a good arm to be successful. Maybe he’ll be another Dak Prescott, but I doubt it.

    Reply Like Dislike
  3. duranko 4 months ago

    Kizer is not a good decision maker in the pocket. His timing is woeful. He often throws the ball too late after the window of opportunithy has closed, and has never mastered the quarterback’s art of throwing the ball away rather than suffere a sack.

    sometimes our first response is best. Perhaps he ought have tried baseball.

    But he has a gun for an arm. He will test well in the combine and his speed and strength will also test well enough for a pocket passer.

    Were I his financial counselor, I would tell him to lose 12 pounds off his midriff, get bright, get cheery, and prepare, in the interviews, to speak well and glowingly about Notre Dame, Kelly and his teammates in an aw shucks kind of way. His draft stock will NEVER be as high as it is right now. WaTSON AND Kaaya are imperfect alternatives, but there is neither a Jared Goffv (whose footwork and pocket decision were as pristine as Kizer’s are flawed and unnatural) nor a Carson Wentzl in the crop. it’s a seller’s market (as in a QB’s market)

    I believe that Kizer’s NFL career will be less distinguished than either Quinn’s or Clausen’s.s

    Reply Like Dislike
  4. Rich M 4 months ago

    I’m not sure how I feel about Kizer going to the NFL. There have been times he has looked brilliant and times very mediocre. He has the size and the arm strength so physically he is in good shape. I think though my reservations about him turning pro have to do with his football IQ . He still makes bad choices. With Zaire transferring and Deshone thinking about bolting for the pros that leaves ND with one very good QB with very little experience, Wimbush. I know they have a recruit or two coming in but they have also lost a few good ones with their pathetic performance this year 4-8. The road ahead looks rather dark for the Irish and with Kelly wondering about moving on, it could be a longer period of mediocrity then the Irish faithful are use to. No one can predict how many key players are going early but a better job of recruiting has to be done to prevent those losses from taking the 10 win team to a 4 win team, and no bowl appearance. GO IRISH!!!

    Reply Like Dislike
    1. George 4 months ago

      Coming back to a 4 win dumpster fire under an incompetent coach who thinks he’s above what he himself has created is quite appealing indeed. Tough decision.

      Reply Like Dislike
      1. Ron Burgundy 4 months ago

        Well, when you put it that way.

        Like Dislike
  5. Terry McManus 4 months ago

    When Kizer showed up he was quite confident in his skills, as well he should be.

    After 2 seasons of Kelly yelling at him on national TV his confidence is shaky, if not shattered.

    I read a piece in which Kelly expressed the belief that his players need his “guidance.” after a loss.

    Wha?

    Reply Like Dislike
  6. 4 months ago

    Kiser would be wise or leave and not look back. Anyone else notice how qb’s digress Unser Kelly? How both offenses and defenses digress as well? Poor game plans, poor execution of poor game plans, poor player development overall, but great ego.

    Reply Like Dislike
  7. Ray 4 months ago

    If Zaire leaves he will lead whatever team he ends up with very far. He had very little opportunity not only in the sense of playing time but awful field position and things like center snaps over his head. When he has been given the full playbook or decent field position he has performed very well.

    Reply Like Dislike
    1. George 4 months ago

      Yep. Turns out Zaire was the answer all along.

      Reply Like Dislike
    2. Ron Burgundy 4 months ago

      Where was this information in September Raymond!

      Reply Like Dislike
  8. Bruce Gregory Curme 4 months ago

    Guys and Gals,
    It’s been great reading your stuff and thinking about it over these last several months, but at this point all I can say is NO COMMENT.
    There are too many unknowns right now.

    Have a great Christmas and a Happy New Year – I’ll see you vs. Temple.
    PS …(GO MUFFETTEERS!)

    Bruce G. Curme 77′ 82
    La Crosse, Indiana

    Reply Like Dislike
  9. Mike "King" Kelly 4 months ago

    DK reminds me a lot of John Elway. He was the best. But, He couldn’t win the BIG ONE untilHe learned the Team concept. DK has to learn He can’t win the game by Himself. I wish He would stay and lead the Fighting Irish to a Championship next year. He will be Coach Kelly’s Quarterback next year in San Francisco!

    Reply Like Dislike
  10. George 4 months ago

    Declaring for the draft is a no-brainer

    Reply Like Dislike
    1. Ron Burgundy 4 months ago

      This is the least complicated decision of the off season.

      Reply Like Dislike
      1. George 4 months ago

        Thanks for the support. I’m confident our readers will find this message to be crystal clear now.

        Like Dislike
  11. Brad 4 months ago

    If I’m Kizer I wait on the decision on BK. If he’s back I’m gone, if he’s gone, I consider staying

    Reply Like Dislike
  12. Jimbo 4 months ago

    I think Kizer has all the tools but could use another year at ND to improve his skills. With that said I still see him going pro and hopefully gets good coaching going forward in the pros. I really think its time to see Wimbush play. I think Zaire transfers.

    Reply Like Dislike
  13. MikeT 4 months ago

    Zaire is gone. He’ll graduate and transfer and maybe even get an extra year of eligibility for sitting out 2015 season with an injury. I can think of several SEC teams where he could go and start and play in the toughest conference in CFB.

    Reply Like Dislike