Frankie V’s Prediction: Notre Dame Football Faces a Rested Belichick in Chapel Hill

Notre Dame hits the road for the second straight week, heading to Chapel Hill to take on Bill Belichick’s North Carolina Tar Heels. The third-ranked Irish are 4-0 and favored by three touchdowns again, but this one comes with a little more intrigue than Purdue did. UNC is coming off a bye, has one of the better defenses Notre Dame will see this season, and nearly knocked off Clemson on the road two weeks ago before letting a 17-3 lead slip away. A win would give Marcus Freeman his first 5-0 start as Notre Dame’s head coach and extend the Irish winning streak in the series to six.

What worries me this week

Bill Belichick coming off a bye
North Carolina had last week off after blowing a 17-3 lead at Clemson, which means Bill Belichick has had two weeks to get ready for Notre Dame. Whatever you think of how his time in Chapel Hill has gone so far, nobody needs to be told what Belichick can do with extra time to game plan. The Tar Heels’ defense is allowing just 13.6 points per game, and I’d expect a few wrinkles the Irish haven’t seen on film.

The opening script
UNC scored touchdowns on its first two drives against Clemson before Billy Edwards Jr. and the offense stalled out. Edwards has been effective early in games and has struggled once defenses adjust. With two weeks to put together those first 15 or so plays, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Tar Heels hit Notre Dame with something early. The Irish can’t let the Kenan Stadium crowd get into it.

Xavier Lewis and the UNC pass rush
Marcus Freeman spent a lot of the week talking about the Tar Heels’ defensive line, and it’s easy to see why. UNC has 10 sacks in three games, and Xavier Lewis has six of them. They don’t blitz much, but they twist and stunt up front, and Lewis will be moving around inside all afternoon. How Notre Dame’s guards and center handle those games will go a long way toward deciding how clean CJ Carr stays.

What doesn’t worry me this week

The Notre Dame run game
I’m calling it: this is the week the Irish ground game gets going. Notre Dame went into Purdue without a 20-yard run all season, and Aneyas Williams had a 22-yard touchdown run in West Lafayette while Jonaz Walton had the longest run of the season. Williams and Nolan James Jr. have both shown they’ll run north and south, and with UNC focused on getting after Carr, I think the running backs have their best day of the season.

Notre Dame’s pass rush getting home
The Irish pass rush keeps its momentum going. Notre Dame had four sacks against Michigan State and kept the pressure coming at Purdue, where Bryce Young’s strip sack set up Drayk Bowen’s scoop-and-score with the Irish tallying six sacks on the day. Edwards has been sacked seven times already, mostly from holding onto the ball too long. Against this front, that habit is going to cost him.

CJ Carr and the Irish passing game
Carr threw three touchdown passes and ran for another at Purdue, and I think he keeps it rolling in Chapel Hill. UNC’s defense has been good, but its secondary gave up several explosive plays to a Clemson offense that was averaging 16 points a game. If the offensive line handles Lewis, Carr will find those same shots, and the Irish passing game will carve up this defense.

Players to Watch

• Luke Talich – He is backed in action this week after missing last week’s Purdue game.
• Rodney Dunham – Freeman said last week they need to get Dunham more involved and he got a sack against Purdue. Look to see his role continue to expand.
• Jonaz Walton – The freshman back just looks different running the ball than anyone else on the roster. It would be shocking if he didn’t keep seeing more carries each week.
• Jaden Greathouse/Mylan Graham – At some point, someone has to get involved in the slot. Don’t know if that will happen this weekend, but both are worth watching.
• Will Black and Guerby Lambert – With UNC moving Lewis around, both will get a shot at blocking him throughout the day.

Prediction Time

North Carolina is not quite as bad as some expected them to be, but they still aren’t all that good either. The Tar Heels might get Notre Dame for an early score on that opening drive, but they have very little chance of any sustained success against Notre Dame’s defense. Offensively, I could see a drive or two getting messed up by the Tar Heel pass rush, but otherwise expect the Irish to largely do what they want. The spread in this one is the first one this year that feels pretty low to me. I expect Notre Dame to roll again.

Notre Dame 49, North Carolina 6