What Though the Odds: Notre Dame vs. Wisconsin Betting Preview and Pick

The #4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish will be featured on NBC Saturday night when they visit the Wisconsin Badgers at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin. Kickoff is set for 7:30 PM ET.

About Last Week

Former Notre Dame head coach Lou Holtz once said, “Show me someone who has done something worthwhile, and I’ll show you someone who has overcome adversity.” The Irish will have the opportunity to do just that in 2026, beginning on Sunday night against Wisconsin at Lambeau Field.

The 2025 season began with adversity for Notre Dame, as they lost their first two games of the season by a combined four points. Their first loss came during Week 1 after Miami connected on a 47-yard field goal with just over a minute remaining in the game. The next week, Notre Dame hosted Texas A&M. The game had fans on the edge of their seats as it featured explosive plays from both teams.

The Irish scored a go-ahead touchdown with 2:45 remaining in the game, but holder Tyler Buchner mishandled the snap, causing Notre Dame to fail on the extra-point attempt. The Aggies subsequently drove down the field and scored on a 4th-and-goal with 13 seconds remaining on the clock. To add insult to injury, an obvious holding call was missed by the referee during that play, which would’ve likely changed the outcome of the game. Nonetheless, the Aggies were successful on their PAT and handed Notre Dame its second straight loss with a final score of 41-40.

Following the loss to Texas A&M, Notre Dame rattled off wins in its next 10 games. It was a feat many assumed had guaranteed them a spot in the 2025 College Football Playoff. The weekly College Football Playoff rankings even suggested as much, as Notre Dame was in the top 10 with only conference championship games remaining to be played. That was not the case, however. Somehow, Miami traded places with Notre Dame without either team having played a game since the end of the regular season, which resulted in the Irish finishing the 2025 season the same way it began: with adversity.

Next up: Wisconsin

Key Injuries and Betting Trends

Notre Dame
WR Quincy Porter (knee), OL Charles Jagusah (arm), OL Matty Austine (foot), Chris Terek (knee), DL Christopher Burgess Jr. (tibia), DL Tiki Hola (knee), LB Ko’o Kia (shoulder), and DB Chaz Smith (wrist) are out.

Wisconsin
OL Emerson Mandell (foot) and OL Kevin Heywood (lower body) are doubtful. RB Bryan Jackson is questionable.

Betting Trends:

• Wisconsin is 4-0 ATS in its last four games as an underdog.
• The total has gone under in Wisconsin’s last nine games.
• The total has gone over in Notre Dame’s last four September games.
• Notre Dame first-half moneyline has cashed in its last 10 games.
• Notre Dame is 6-6 ATS in its last 12 games.
• In matchup history, Notre Dame is 9-6-2 all-time vs. Wisconsin.

Why the Irish Are Big Favorites

Line (Point Spread) and Total (Over/Under)

Wisconsin (0-0) (0-0 ATS) at #4 Notre Dame (0-0) (0-0 ATS)

“A lot of unknowns, and I think that’s the beauty of it, right,” Wisconsin head coach Luke Fickell stated when he addressed the media at this week’s press conference. “We got a new quarterback that we feel really good about. I’m sure you’ll ask questions about him, but we also have never seen him truly play a game and look into the eyes of those things. I think us as coaches, that’s what continues to drive us and motivate us, but also keep us up at night.”

Coach Fickell was referring to quarterback Colton Joseph, who is one of 33 incoming transfer players Wisconsin will have for the 2026 season via the portal. Joseph served as quarterback for Old Dominion a year ago, where he earned Sun Belt Conference Offensive Player of the Year honors after throwing for 2,624 yards and 21 touchdowns while adding 1,007 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns.

While those are stellar numbers, they did not come against a defense with the same caliber of talent as this year’s Notre Dame squad, and that is what makes Joseph an unknown commodity for the Badgers until proven otherwise. That’s also why Coach Fickell hasn’t gotten much sleep heading into Week 1.

The same cannot be said for Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman, as he knows exactly who and what he has under center.

“When he walked into this program, he was different,” Freeman recently told coach Urban Meyer on the ‘Triple Option Podcast.’ “When you talk about a guy who grew up in Ann Arbor, Michigan, and his grandfather (Lloyd Carr) is a National Champion head coach at the University of Michigan, for him to choose Notre Dame tells you a lot about his personality and who he is. Now, he has the title to accompany who he is on the inside. Now he has the title of captain and returning starting quarterback. That’s who he is. He’s a leader.

“He comes in here and he prepares in a way I haven’t seen many people prepare,” Freeman added. “On the field, he does what it takes to lead his team. I always say a leader has to be aware of what his team needs. Sometimes it’s getting on your tail, and sometimes it might be encouraging. But, he has that trait. It does help you sleep a bit better at night knowing he’s the one running your offense, but actually is the leader of the team.”

Last season was Carr’s first year as starting quarterback for Notre Dame. He completed 195 of 293 passes for 2,741 yards with 24 touchdowns and six interceptions. Carr finished the season ranked fifth in the nation in passing efficiency at 168.1, sixth in yards per pass attempt (9.35), and sixth in yards per completion (14.06). Those numbers, combined with his team’s potential for 2026, have Carr as the odds-on favorite to win the Heisman Trophy (+700 Draft Kings). Carr is also a major reason why Notre Dame is a three-score favorite heading into the game this weekend, but he is not the only reason.

The other reason is because a Wisconsin team that averaged just 12.8 points per game a season ago will be facing a defense that allowed just 17.6 points per game in 2025. It’s also a defense that added even more ammunition to its arsenal via the transfer portal. It was an intentional shopping spree that featured the likes of five four-star players, including DB Jayden Sanders, DB DJ McKinney, DL Tionne Gray, DL Francis Brewu, and DL Keon Keely.

According to Coach Fickell, pairing those transfer players with current Notre Dame veterans such as Leonard Moore, Drayk Bowen, Kingston Viliamu-Asa, and Adon Shuler makes it almost unfair.

“For what they had last year to what they have this year, in particular up front on the defensive line, I think they’re going to have more depth,” Fickell admitted. “They’re going to have more length. I think they may have even more NFL true players up front on the defensive line. There’s no doubt it’ll be a challenge for us up front. I’m not saying it’s going to be the best defensive front we play the entire year, but if it’s not the most talented defensive front, it’ll be one of the most talented defensive fronts.”

Aside from Notre Dame’s boosted talent along the defensive line, there were other reasons for Fickell’s concern. Wisconsin will likely be missing two of its starting offensive linemen in Emerson Mandell and Kevin Heywood. They’ve missed most, if not all, of fall camp due to injury. Those injuries, along with the other factors mentioned above, are why sportsbooks currently have the Irish favored by 20.5 points with a total of 47.5.

The Pick

The Badgers lost eight games last season, and four of those losses were by more than 20 points. Conversely, eight of Notre Dame’s 10 wins from a year ago were by 21 points or more. Some professional handicappers argue that each game is its own game and sports bettors should not look at historic trends when deciding their wager. Other cappers disagree and say to follow the trend if there’s a big enough sample size to support one.

In theory, the college football transfer portal eliminated trends, as most teams will likely showcase entirely different rosters year to year moving forward. Wisconsin added 33 players via the portal and subtracted another 25. Notre Dame, on the other hand, retained more of its own players from 2025 than most other teams, including a player starting at the most important position on the field: quarterback. They’ll also enter this game with a team motto of “leave no doubt.” It has been preached by Coach Freeman since his team was snubbed out of the playoffs back in December. However, at this point it is no longer just a motto for his team. It is a belief.

Freeman played under Coach Fickell at Ohio State and served on his staff while coaching under him at Cincinnati. Freeman is likely aware that his former colleague is currently on the hot seat at Wisconsin and is in desperate need of a turnaround season. Fickell surely cannot afford for his team to get blown out Sunday night on national television. For Sunday’s game, however, even if it were coach Jim Tressel, Freeman’s former head coach at Ohio State, a man he speaks most highly of, standing across the field from him, it wouldn’t matter. Notre Dame will not pump the brakes this week. The offense will be able to score enough points, and the defense will be able to inflict enough violence to equal the pain the team has kept inside since December. There will be no doubt left at Lambeau Field.

Pick: Notre Dame -21

Behind Enemy Lines: Week 1

Houston Christian (1-0) (0-0 ATS) at Rice (0-0) (0-0 ATS)

The Huskies traveled to Hammond, Louisiana, during Week 0 and took down the Southeastern Lions, 34-28. Rice was idle during Week 0; however, it was a participant on January 2 in the Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl, where it was deep-fried by Texas State, 41-10. Rice is -22.5 with a total of 47.5. Pick: Houston Christian +22.5

Toledo (0-0) (0-0 ATS) at Michigan State (0-0) (0-0 ATS)

It is difficult to believe there’s excitement following Michigan State’s 4-8 2025 season, but that’s because on December 1, 2025, the Spartans hired their 27th head football coach in Pat Fitzgerald. While serving as head coach at Northwestern for the past 17 seasons, Fitzgerald led the Wildcats to two Big Ten West Division titles, so Michigan State fans are hoping he brings much of the same success with him. Toledo ended the 2025 regular season 8-4 before falling to Louisville, 27-22, in the Bush’s Boca Raton Bowl. Michigan State is -10 with a total of 47. Pick: Under 47

Indiana State (0-1) (0-0 ATS) at Purdue (0-0) (0-0 ATS)

Purdue rested during Week 0, and the Boilermakers appear to be resting again during Week 1, as they’ll be hosting Indiana State. Line N/A. Next game: Wake Forest

North Carolina (1-0) (1-0 ATS) – Bye

The Tar Heels held TCU scoreless after the first quarter and went on to win their first game of the season, 15-10. The Horned Frogs were limited to 281 yards of total offense. Next game: East Tennessee State

#7 Miami (0-0) (0-0 ATS) at Stanford (1-0) (1-0 ATS)

Miami not only enters 2026 as a favorite to make the College Football Playoff, but perhaps to win the national title while they’re at it. This week the Hurricanes will be taking on a Stanford team that knocked off Hawaii last week, 37-27. Miami opened at -21.5 before climbing to where the line is now, -24.5, with a total of 48.5. Pick: Over 48 (buy the .5)

Utah Tech (0-0) (0-0 ATS) at #14 BYU (0-0) (0-0 ATS)

The Cougars will use their Week 1 game against Utah Tech to prepare for next week’s showdown versus Arizona. Line: N/A. Next game: Arizona

Towson (0-1) (0-0 ATS) at Navy (0-0) (0-0 ATS)

The Midshipmen will continue to enjoy their summer leave at home as they’ll welcome Towson to Navy-Marine Corps Stadium. Line: N/A. Next game: at FAU

Boston College (0-0) (0-0 ATS) at Cincinnati (0-0) (0-0)

The Eagles managed to win just two games during 2025, and one of those wins included a 66-10 victory over Fordham. Boston College will begin 2026 with a much tougher Week 1 task, as they’ll travel to Nippert Stadium to take on Cincinnati. The Bearcats began last season with a 7-1 start before losing their last five games. Cincinnati opened as 9.5-point favorites before the line fell two points to -7.5. The total is sitting at 49.5. Pick: Boston College +7.5

#19 SMU (0-0) (0-0 ATS) at Florida State (1-0) (0-1 ATS)

SMU began the calendar year with a 24-19 victory over Arizona in the Trust & Will Holiday Bowl back on January 2. This week the Mustangs will travel to Tallahassee, Florida, to take on a Florida State team that already has one win under its belt. The Seminoles defeated New Mexico State 34-17 during Week 0 for their first win of the 2026 season. SMU is -3 across the board with a total of 53. Pick: Over 53

New Hampshire (0-1) (0-0 ATS) at Syracuse (0-0) (0-0 ATS)

Syracuse will have this weekend off against New Hampshire in preparation for the following weekend’s game against California. Line: N/A. Next game: California

*Notre Dame 2025 opponents are listed in bold.