What Though the Odds: Notre Dame vs. Navy Betting Info and Picks

The #5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish will be featured on ABC when they face the Navy Midshipmen in Foxborough, Massachusetts, at Gillette Stadium. Kickoff is set for noon ET.

About Last Week

It remains to be seen whether the Irish benefited from having last week off following their week-seven loss to BYU. Regardless, the loss to the Cougars crushed any hope Notre Dame had of achieving the #1 ranking during the regular season for the first time since 2012. The failure to win a game versus its highest-ranked opponents while having Chris Ash as defensive coordinator is eerily similar to former heavyweight boxing champion Mike Tyson’s record against his best opponents.

Tyson finished his career with 50 wins (44 KO) while losing seven times (5 KO). It is safe to assume not many people remember who most of his 50 wins were against, but they likely remember three of his seven losses, which came against Hall of Fame boxers Evander Holyfield and Lennox Lewis. During the most historic moments against Tyson’s greatest opponents, he folded.

The same can be said for Notre Dame’s defense under Ash. During Ash’s first year as DC last season, Notre Dame lost to then-No. 10 Miami and then-No. 16 Texas A&M in back-to-back games. The Irish followed that trend two weeks ago against then-No. 8 BYU. To add insult to injury, Notre Dame was tied or had the lead going into its opponents’ final drive in each of those games. And like Tyson’s onlookers, Irish fans probably cannot remember the blowout wins under Ash that took place against Notre Dame’s lesser opponents, but they surely remember the losses.

Tyson said many outlandish things over the course of his career, but perhaps one of his most famous quotes that stuck was, “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.”

Notre Dame was metaphorically punched in the mouth when AP Midseason All-American defensive lineman Boubacar Traore was ejected for targeting during the first drive of the game. The Irish never recovered from that blow and subsequently went on to lose their first game of the season, 28-24. Next up: Navy.

Injury Report and Trends

Notre Dame

WR Quincy Porter (knee), OL Charles Jagusah (arm), OL Chris Terek (knee), DL Christopher Burgess Jr. (tibia), DL Tiki Hola (knee), LB Ko’o Kia (shoulder), DB Chaz Smith (wrist), S Brauntae Johnson (foot), and CB DJ McKinney (ankle) are out. LB Kyngstonn Vilamu-Asa (thumb), TE Cooper Flanagan (hamstring), DL Loghan Thomas (shoulder), and CB Mark Zackery IV (Concussion) are questionable.

Navy

No major current injuries.

Betting Trends:

• Notre Dame is 84-13-1 all-time against Navy.
• College Football National Championship odds: Notre Dame +460
• Notre Dame is 3-0 ATS in its last two games versus Navy
• Notre Dame is 4-3 ATS in 2026.
• The total has gone over in seven of Notre Dame’s last 10 games.

Line, Matchup, and What to Watch

#2 Notre Dame (6-1) (4-3 ATS) at Navy (2-5) (2-5 ATS)

“We attacked some of the deficiencies during the bye week as well as prepared for Navy,” Notre Dame Head Coach Marcus Freeman informed. “Navy is 2-5 right now. It is year four for coach (Brian) Newberry, but I think five or six of their losses were one score games and those were the games they were winning last year. It is a team that is going to fight until the very end of the game.”

Notre Dame fought until the final second of the game last time out versus BYU and still fell short, but this week’s opponent should be much more manageable on both sides of the ball.

Navy quarterback Jackson Guitierrez is 6th in the country in total rushing yards with 869 yards and 4th in rushing yards per game, averaging 124.1 per contest. However, he’ll be facing the nation’s 3rd-ranked rushing defense, which is allowing 67.3 yards per game. Last season, Notre Dame’s defense allowed just 228 total yards of offense against Navy, including 206 yards on the ground. The added depth across the defensive line, along with the returning experience at linebacker, should be enough to contain the Midshipmen yet again this season.

Navy’s flexbone triple-option offense will not just need to be contained on the ground, however, as the Midshipmen are currently first in passing yards per completion, averaging 20.39 yards per catch. Between runs, Navy will be trying to sneak passes in against the nation’s 13th-ranked defense in passing yards allowed. Notre Dame is surrendering 167.7 yards per game, including 6.35 yards per attempt.

Notre Dame’s secondary will be without safety Tae Johnson again this week, as well as cornerback DJ McKinney. This shouldn’t affect the outcome of the game versus the lowly Midshipmen, but Notre Dame will likely look to play reserve players throughout the secondary this week to prepare for next week’s game versus Miami for added depth. The mixing and matching of personnel could leave the Irish vulnerable to a few explosive passes.

Conversely, Notre Dame will undoubtedly showcase long passes of its own. Navy has allowed 255.9 passing yards per game, which is good for 123rd in the nation. The Midshipmen are dead last in team passing efficiency defense (138th), allowing 175.13 passing efficiency for opposing quarterbacks. Carr’s passing rating fell below 100.0 against BYU for the first time in a game in his college career. Expect Carr to remind college football fans that he is still one of the nation’s best quarterbacks.

The Pick

This weekend Notre Dame will look to rebound from its first loss of the season. The Irish cannot afford to lose another game to any team, or else their playoff hopes are likely over. Coach Freeman’s demeanor during this week’s press conference revealed pain that was still lingering from the loss to BYU. That type of pain is likely also being felt amongst his staff and players. One way of relieving the pain would be by achieving a better result. And to achieve a better result, Freeman said you must first own your mistakes, identify what the issues are, and the process of that will lead you to a solution.

“Solutions in my process might affect others,” Freeman warned. “And the solutions in other people’s process might affect someone else. That’s okay as long as we keep Notre Dame football reaching it’s full potential at the top of our minds.”

Notre Dame opened as 28.5-point favorites and is now favored by as many as 30.5 points at some books, with a total of 56.5. It is unclear how the team and coaches will respond to Freeman’s process of fixing the team’s issues, but there is no doubt points will be scored in this one. Pick: Over 56.5

Behind Enemy Lines Week 9

#25 Wisconsin (5-2) (4-3 ATS) at Iowa (5-2) (4-3 ATS)

The Badgers protected their house against the Trojans last week, beating then-No. 16 USC, 24-7. Iowa lost a close one at Minnesota, 13-10. Iowa is 4-0 SU in the last four matchups versus Wisconsin. The Badgers lead the overall series 49-48-2. Iowa is -3.5 with a total of 37. Pick: Under 37

Rice (1-7) (4-4 ATS) – BYE

Rice lost in a shootout at Florida Atlantic, 51-49. The game featured nine touchdowns on plays of at least 30 yards. Owls quarterback Gael Ochoa carried the ball 12 times for 259 yards and four touchdowns. Next game: at North Texas

Michigan State (2-6) (5-3 ATS) – BYE

The Spartans lost their West Coast trip to UCLA, 28-10. Michigan State was held to just 156 yards of total offense. Meanwhile, its defense surrendered 443 total yards, including 245 yards rushing. Next game: at Michigan

Purdue (3-4) (3-4 ATS) at Penn State (3-4) (3-4 ATS)

The Boilermakers will be returning from a bye week. In their last outing, Purdue fell at home to Washington, 38-26. Penn State will also enter this game from a bye week. The Nittany Lions lost their previous game at Michigan, 21-18. Purdue allows 36.5 points per game. Penn State has lost its last four games. Penn State is -8 with a 54.5. Pick: Over 54.5

#1 Miami (7-0) (5-2 ATS) at North Carolina (4-3) (4-3 ATS)

The Hurricanes rained down on Pittsburgh, 52-23. The Tar Heels lost in overtime versus Syracuse, 31-30. The win over Pittsburgh was the first time Miami won a game while being ranked No. 1 since 2002. Saturday’s game will provide North Carolina with the opportunity to defeat its second-ranked team of the season, as it previously defeated then-No. 25 Pittsburgh earlier this month. Miami is -14 with a total of 53 across the board. Pick: Miami -14

Stanford (4-4) (3-5 ATS) at Louisville (4-3) (4-3 ATS)

Stanford won its fourth game of the season, defeating NC State 31-28. Louisville will be entering this game off its bye. The Cardinals won their previous game at Syracuse, 34-26. Games have gone over the total in seven of the last 10 games for both Stanford and Louisville. The Cardinals are -22.5 with a total of 60.5. Pick: Over 60.5

Arizona State (4-3) (3-4 ATS) at #8 BYU (6-1) (6-1 ATS)

The Sun Devils defeated Kansas State, 28-17. BYU lost during its hangover in double overtime at UCF, 39-31. The total has gone over in six of Arizona State’s last 10 road games. BYU is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home games. BYU is -16.5 with a total of 48.5. Pick: BYU -16.5

Boston College (4-3) (5-2 ATS) at Duke (5-2) (5-2 ATS)

Boston College invaded Atlanta and left with a 49-27 victory over Georgia Tech. Duke won in a nailbiter at Virgina, 19-16. Boston College is averaging 25.2 points per game while allowing 25.8. Duke is 7-3 ATS as a home favorite. Duke is -7 with a total of 48. Pick: Duke -7

#19 SMU (6-1) (4-3 ATS) at Syracuse (3-4) (4-3 ATS)

SMU trampled California, 59-20. Syracuse converted a two-point conversion in overtime to defeat North Carolina, 31-30. SMU has won four games in a row. The total has gone over in seven of Syracuse’s last 10 games. SMU is -10 with a total of 58.5. Pick: Syracuse +10