Notre Dame Football Primer: No. 3 Irish Travel to North Carolina

After a 49-10 dismantling of another Big Ten school, the Notre Dame football schedule shifts to its first ACC opponent of the year: Bill Belichick’s North Carolina Tar Heels. Already one-third of the way through the season, the Fighting Irish are improving each week and cannot take any opponent for granted. The BYU Cougars matchup looms in a few weeks, but Saturday will provide another opportunity to beat a Power Four opponent on the road. It’s game number five for Marcus Freeman and the Irish. What young stars will shine for Notre Dame this weekend?

Game Details and North Carolina Snapshot

Game Time: Saturday, October 3 at 12:00 PM ET on ESPN
Location: Kenan Stadium, Chapel Hill, North Carolina
Matchup History: Notre Dame Football is 21-1 all-time against North Carolina (Last Meeting 2022: Irish won 45-32)
Odds: Notre Dame -21.5

Details
Conference: ACC
Head Coach: Bill Belichick
2025 Record: 2-1 (0-1)
2024 Record: 4-8 (2-6)

Weather Forecast:

At the time this article was written, the current forecast called for a 50% chance of rain, with a high of 83 degrees and a low of 64.

North Carolina Storylines

Bill Belichick enters his second year in Chapel Hill. The Tar Heels will be entering this showdown fresh off a bye week in preparation for Notre Dame. They started the season in Ireland with a 15-10 victory over TCU, beat ETSU 35-3, and lost at Clemson 28-20.

It is too early to determine if the “Bill Belichick experiment” is working at North Carolina. The Tar Heels have been trying to become a football power for as long as I can remember. Instead of hiring a new up-and-coming football coach, they went with Mack Brown, then Bill Belichick, which have not paid dividends yet. Since partnering with the ACC, Notre Dame Football has outmatched the Tar Heels over the past decade.

Quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. leads the North Carolina offense. This fall, Edwards Jr. is 44-for-78 (56%) with 611 passing yards, 3 passing touchdowns, 1 interception, and 7 sacks taken. On the ground, he has 15 attempts for 7 yards (sacks included). It is not going to help the Tar Heel offense against the Irish if they have an immobile quarterback.

Where Notre Dame Stands

The Fighting Irish defense embarrassed the Purdue offense. Besides a “garbage time touchdown” against Notre Dame’s backups, the Boilermakers were dismantled in their backyard. Chris Ash’s defense held Purdue to 218 total yards: 178 passing and 40 rushing on 31 rushing attempts. To put this weekend’s matchup into context, an argument could be made that the Boilers have a better offense than the Tar Heels bring into this gridiron clash.

The Notre Dame rushing attack is still a work in progress. Do not get me wrong, I was ecstatic to be at the game last Saturday and watch the Fighting Irish dismantle a Big Ten opponent, and this is only week four of the season, but I still have some worries. The Irish offense had 32 attempts for 177 yards (5.5 yards per carry), but if you take away Jonaz Walton’s 44-yard run late in the game, that average was essentially 4.3 yards per carry for the Irish offense. Not bad at all, but Purdue might be the worst Power Four rushing defense in America.

Nevertheless, I think the Notre Dame offense is progressing each week. Jordan Faison is one of the better receivers in the country, Micah Gilbert has become the big-play threat, and Jaden Greathouse added two catches at Purdue. And the Irish rushing attack is adding more options with Nolan James Jr. and Jonaz Walton, who is likely the most athletic running back on the roster and reminded me of Jadarian Price last weekend.

Head-to-Head Matchups

Notre Dame Offense vs. North Carolina Defense: The Fighting Irish offense is averaging 417 yards per matchup, while the North Carolina defense is allowing 312 yards per game.

This Saturday afternoon will be the toughest road test to date for the Irish; last weekend was essentially a split crowd. Nevertheless, the Fighting Irish offense is improving each week and still has not peaked.

Bill Belichick is known for his defenses, and they might be able to slow down the Irish early in the game, but Notre Dame will pull away in the second half.

Advantage: Notre Dame

North Carolina Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense: The Tar Hels’ offense is averaging 366 yards per contest, while the Notre Dame defense allows 199 yards per game.

North Carolina has not seen anything like the Irish defense. Chris Ash’s group has almost scored as many points as they have given up. The Notre Dame defense essentially gave up 3 points last week with the starting defense (another 7 points at the end of the game).

The Tar Heels are going to struggle to put up any points this Saturday.

Notre Dame still has the clear advantage in this category.

Advantage: Notre Dame

Special Teams: Spencer Porath is 5 for 6 this fall, with his longest make at 52 yards. Conversely, Aeron Burrell of North Carolina is 4 for 7, with his longest conversion at 33 yards.

There is no distinct advantage on special teams.

Advantage: Notre Dame

The Prediction

My Prediction:
This Notre Dame Football team has the talent, players, and coaches to win a national championship. Chris Ash’s defense has been the best in the country through four games, even without Tae Johnson, Luke Talich, and Jason Onye – and Talich returns this week.

Now, the offense is still working to become a national championship-caliber unit, but I believe they will get there. I was hoping to see a more dominant performance on the ground against a terrible Purdue defense, and fans should be expecting to see a breakout ground attack at North Carolina this Saturday or Stanford the following week.

I believe this matchup will be similar to last Saturday against the Purdue Boilermakers. The Notre Dame defense will control the entire game, and the Irish offense will methodically put up points. Expect the Irish air attack to lead the way, followed by a plethora of touches from three different running backs, depending on who has the hot hand.

I have the Fighting Irish winning by 4 touchdowns.

Prediction: Notre Dame 38 North Carolina 10