What Though the Odds: Notre Dame Football Betting Info for the North Carolina Game

The #3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish will be featured on ESPN when they travel to face the North Carolina Tar Heels at Kenan Stadium in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. Kickoff is set for 12:00 PM ET.

About Last Week

The game against Purdue was over once Notre Dame running back Aneyas Williams carried the ball up the middle for a 22-yard touchdown run. Not only did the score increase Notre Dame’s lead to 14 points, but it also marked the first run of more than 20 yards for the Irish all season. Notre Dame finished the game with 177 rushing yards on 32 carries (5.5 YPC) and two touchdowns. One of those came via CJ Carr during the second quarter when he kept the ball for a one-yard touchdown run. Carr also caused damage through the air, completing 14 of 22 attempts for 237 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception.

Carr’s performance was stellar, but the star of the show was the vaunted Notre Dame defense, as it held Purdue to a putrid 218 yards of total offense. Boilermakers quarterback Ryan Browne entered the game averaging over 300 passing yards per contest. Notre Dame limited him to 111 yards, including a sack fumble that was returned for a touchdown by Notre Dame linebacker Drayk Bowen. Defensive lineman Bryce Young led Notre Dame with two sacks, while the defense finished the game with six total sacks and nine tackles for loss en route to a 49-10 Notre Dame victory. Next up: North Carolina.

Key Injuries

Notre Dame
WR Quincy Porter (knee), OL Charles Jagusah (arm), OL Matty Austine (foot), Chris Terek (knee), DL Christopher Burgess Jr. (tibia), DL Tiki Hola (knee), LB Ko’o Kia (shoulder), and DB Chaz Smith (wrist), S Brauntae Johnson (foot), and DL Jason Onye (ankle) are out.

North Carolina
TE Jordan Washington is out. K Rece Verhoff, OL Jonah Rodriguez (OL), and WR C.J. Sadler are questionable.

Betting Trends

• Notre Dame Football is 21-1 all-time against North Carolina.
• North Carolina is 5-5 SU in its last 10 games versus ranked opponents.
• North Carolina is 4-5-1 ATS in its last nine games.
• Notre Dame is 3-1 ATS in 2026.
• Notre Dame has won 14 straight games by double digits.

Line, Total, and Matchup Outlook

#3 Notre Dame (4-0) (3-1 ATS) at North Carolina (2-1) (1-2 ATS)

The 49-10 victory over Purdue last week crowned Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman as the first head coach in Notre Dame history to win 14 consecutive games by double digits. That tied the Irish with Florida State and Clemson for third all-time with 14 straight wins by 10 or more points, behind only Florida (15) and Miami (17). Historically, teams with 14 or more straight wins by double digits have gone on to win the national championship.

This weekend, Freeman and the Irish will face a North Carolina team led by a coach with accolades of his own, as Bill Belichick’s five career Super Bowl championships are more than any head coach in NFL history. Coach Belichick’s forte was defense as a coach in the NFL, and not much has changed in that regard since his transition to college.

“They are really good in the red zone,” Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman said of the Tar Heels’ defense. “I think they’re top 25 in points allowed per game, but they’re really good in the red zone-top 5 or top-6. It all starts with their defensive line. They’re big, they roll guys, they’re disruptive, they two-gap, they do a lot of different things, and it will be a great challenge for our offense.”

North Carolina is ranked 44th in the nation in total defense, allowing 312.3 yards per game. The Tar Heels’ red-zone defense is ranked fourth in the nation, allowing opponents to score just .625 percent of the time. In eight red-zone attempts, their opponents managed two rushing touchdowns and three field goals. North Carolina is also tied for 10th in the country in sacks with 10, despite having played only three games.

Although coach Belichick is the mastermind behind the defense, it will be his son, Brian Belichick, who will be calling the defensive plays on Saturday afternoon. The play-calling exchange between the Belichicks, Notre Dame offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock, and his Heisman-contending quarterback CJ Carr will be a real battle. The difference in that exchange is huge, though. Belichick’s coach-to-player directives can only be heard for the first 15 seconds of a down in the helmet of whichever Tar Heels defensive player is wearing the green dot on his helmet.

In most cases for a defense, once the green-dot communication is cut off, the play that was called remains as called regardless of any change seen from the offense. Although the same 15-second rule applies to Carr and Notre Dame’s offense, Freeman believes Carr is similar to having an offensive coordinator on the field, and it has certainly shown through four games. Notre Dame’s offense is fourth in the country with the fewest sacks allowed and third in the country in fewest tackles for loss allowed. It’s an advantage that isn’t always found directly on a stat sheet, but it can be found in the outcome of a play.

“It’s huge,” Freeman said of Carr’s ability to see pressure from one side to another. “In terms of a tackle for loss, it’s just as big on CJ to check to a run play and away from a catastrophic play. There’re certain plays that the offensive coordinator can call and that look is not going to be good. So, the ability to check that run to a different run or to a pass is something that we have to be able to do and you have to have a quarterback that can see that first, right? Recognize what the defense is doing and then put your offense in the right position and the right play. He’s done an excellent job at that.”

The Pick

Carr’s skill and leadership have the Irish ranked 17th in scoring offense, averaging 42.2 points per game. The same cannot be said for North Carolina when it comes to adding points to the scoreboard. The Tar Heels are currently ranked 102nd out of 138 teams in scoring offense, averaging 23.3 points per game. That includes their game against the East Tennessee State Buccaneers, when they scored a season-high 35 points.

This weekend’s game will likely reduce the Tar Heels’ scoring average when they face a Notre Dame defense that is currently No. 1 in total defense. After four games, Notre Dame has the second-highest scoring defense in the nation, allowing 8.25 PPG. In addition, the Irish defense has allowed 199.2 yards per game and a modest 3.62 yards per play.

Even with a multi-Super Bowl champion serving as head coach and a team having an extra week to prepare for this weekend’s game after returning from a bye week, Vegas oddsmakers somehow still have Notre Dame favored by 21 points on the road, with a total of 47.5. Pick: Notre Dame -21

Behind Enemy Lines Week 5

Michigan State (2-2) (3-1 ATS) at Wisconsin (3-1) (2-2 ATS)
The Spartans were down by 14 points at halftime and were never able to recover as they fell at home to Nebraska, 31-13. Meanwhile, Wisconsin outscored Penn State 17-3 in the second half to go on to win the game, 24-20. Both teams have split their last 10 meetings. More recently, the total has gone over once in their last three matchups. Wisconsin is -10 with a total of 43.5. Pick: Wisconsin -10

UTSA (3-1) (2-1 ATS) at Rice (1-3) (2-2 ATS)
UTSA protected its house against a herd of Colorado State Rams, winning 59-45. Rice surrendered its 3-point halftime lead at Fresno State en route to the Owls’ third loss of the season, 38-24. The totals in UTSA games are averaging 65.5 points. Rice is 4-6 ATS in its last 10 games. UTSA is locked at -11.5 with a total of 56. Pick: Over 56

Purdue (1-3) (1-3 ATS) at Illinois (2-2) (2-2 ATS)
Purdue was derailed at home by Notre Dame, 49-10. Illinois suffered an aerial assault at Ohio State, 42-19. Purdue is 0-3 SU in its last three, allowing 139 points. Illinois is averaging 28 points per game. Illinois is -10.5 and trending upward. The total is 62. Pick: Over 62

Stanford (2-2) (2-2 ATS) at Wake Forest (3-1) (2-2 ATS)
The Cardinal upset Georgia Tech, 34-27, while outscoring the Yellow Jackets 24-7 in the second half. Wake Forest stunned then-No. 16 Louisville, 30-27. Stanford is 6-4 ATS in its last 10 games. The total has gone under in Wake Forest’s last two games. Wake Forest is -13 with a total of 53. Pick: Over 53

#10 BYU (3-0) (3-0 ATS) at TCU (2-2) (2-2 ATS)
The Cougars’ last game came two weeks ago when BYU handed Colorado State its first loss of the season, 41-23. TCU was held scoreless in the fourth quarter at Central Florida last week as it fell to UCF, 21-13. BYU is averaging 32.3 points per game while allowing opponents to score 20.6. TCU’s games this season are averaging 45.7 total points. BYU is -6 with a total of 47.5. Pick: BYU -6

Navy (1-2) (0-3ATS) at Air Force (2-1) (1-2 ATS)
Navy lost its second straight game last week, sinking at UAB, 24-20. Air Force shot down Nevada in double overtime, 36-33. Navy is scoring nearly as many points as it is allowing, by a margin of 28.2 to 27.3 points per game. Air Force’s defense is allowing 24.6 points per game. The Falcons enter this game at -3.5 with a total of 46. Pick: Navy +3.5

#4 Miami (4-0) (3-1 ATS) at Clemson (3-1) (2-2 ATS)
The Hurricanes’ trip to Stanford last week was obviously for pleasure as they won easily, 45-6. Clemson also made a trip to the West Coast, but the Tigers had to scratch and claw their way to a 24-10 victory over California. Miami is defeating its opponents by a margin of 23.4 points on the season. Clemson is 5-2 against the Hurricanes with Dabo Swinney leading the team. Miami is sitting at -16.5 with a total of 48. Pick: Miami -16.5

Boston College (2-2) (2-2 ATS) at #21 SMU (3-1) (2-2 ATS)
Boston College was held scoreless in the first half of its 21-14 loss to Virginia Tech. SMU had its saddles full in the Mustangs’ 34-24 win against Missouri State. Boston College leads the ACC with six interceptions. SMU is 4-6 ATS in its last 10 games, including 0-2 ATS in its last two. SMU is favored by 21.5 with a total of 55.5. Pick: Under 55.5

Syracuse (1-2) (1-2 ATS) at UConn (2-2) (2-2 ATS)
The Orange last played on September 17th, when they looked listless at Pittsburgh, losing 27-13. Former Notre Dame quarterback Steve Angeli was benched after completing 13 of 25 passes for 161 yards and two interceptions. UConn’s game at Miami of Ohio was tied at 14 during halftime before the Red Hawks went on to win, 24-21. Opponents are outscoring Syracuse by nearly 14 points on the season. UConn’s games have gone over in six of the last 10. Syracuse is -6.5 with a total of 51. Pick: Over 51

*Notre Dame 2026 opponents are listed in bold