What Thought the Odds: Notre Dame Football vs. Purdue Betting Preview, Trends, and Pick

The first half made it appear as if the game was going to be a nailbiter for the Irish, as they led by only seven points at halftime, but the second half proved otherwise as Notre Dame went on to defeat Michigan State, 27-10. The Irish won on the scoreboard as well as in just about every other facet of the game, including total offense by a margin of 228 yards.

Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr completed 18 of 24 attempts for 234 yards. He also added a rushing touchdown. Notre Dame’s top running backs, Aneyas Williams and Nolan James, combined for 146 yards on 35 carries, including two touchdowns. James managed 26 of those carries while achieving a collegiate-best 121 rushing yards.

On the other side of the ball, the Notre Dame defense certainly did its part by limiting the Spartans’ offense to 167 total yards. To top it off, Michigan State was held scoreless in the second half.

Scoring may not be a problem for Notre Dame’s upcoming opponent, as they’re averaging nearly 40 points per game. Next up: Purdue

Notre Dame Injury Report

Notre Dame
WR Quincy Porter (knee), OL Charles Jagusah (arm), OL Matty Aumine (foot), Chris Terek (knee), DL Christopher Burgess Jr. (tibia), DL Tiki Hola (knee), LB Ko’o Kia (shoulder), DB Chaz Smith (wrist), S Brauntae Johnson (foot), and DL Jason Onye (ankle) are out. S Luke Talich (hand) is questionable.

Purdue
DB Mister Clark and LT Joey Tanona are questionable. TE Kylan Fox and DB Raderrion Daniels are out for the season.

Notre Dame Betting Trends

• Notre Dame is 61-26-2 all-time against Purdue.
• Purdue averages 72 plays per game.
• Purdue is 4-6 ATS in its last 10 home games.
• The average combined points total for the last 10 games at Purdue was 55.2.
• Notre Dame is 2-1 ATS in 2026.

Why the Number Is So Big

Line (Point Spread) and Total (Over/Under)
#3 Notre Dame (3-0) (2-1 ATS) at Purdue (1-2) (1-2 ATS)

Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman has a chance to go unbeaten during the month of September for the first time in his head coaching career with a win against Purdue on Saturday. Based on the current betting line, Vegas oddsmakers expect Freeman to enter October with an unblemished record, as every major sportsbook has Notre Dame favored by four touchdowns. The logic behind the betting line makes sense, as the Irish are ahead of the Boilermakers in just about every statistical category on both sides of the ball.

“I think every game is going to present a different story, and we’ll see at the end what it is,” Freeman said. “I aspire to have a really good defense. I aspire to have a fundamentally sound offense that can rush the ball and capitalize off of big plays, and a special teams’ unit that can change the game. That’s what I aspire this football team to be. Now, it isn’t always going to happen like that. If one is down, we need the other one to make sure they’re doing their job, but I aspire to be the most well-rounded football team in college football.”

Meeting those aspirations will certainly improve the odds of Notre Dame winning its first national title since 1988, but there’s some nuance that needs to be included in the winning formula.

Look-Ahead Spot or Business Trip?

One area that will not be found on the stat sheet is overlooking your opponent, and that could very well fall into this week’s equation. Freeman and Notre Dame crushed Purdue in 2024, 66-7, and followed that up with a 56-30 beatdown last year. Unlike the first three weeks of this season, the recent blowouts against Purdue have removed any major headlines or cause for concern this week.

For example, week 1 provided the hype surrounding playing at Lambeau Field and the mantra of “leave no doubt.” During week 2, the motivation was starting the season with two wins for the first time since 2023 and not allowing another Northern Illinois scenario to take place. Last week’s excitement surrounded the Irish hosting their first home night game of the year and the team facing former Notre Dame linebacker coach Max Bullogh. Then there’s next week’s game at North Carolina. The team and staff will certainly be motivated to face multi-Super Bowl champion head coach Bill Belichick.

That leaves us with this week’s game against a Purdue team Notre Dame has owned under Freeman. It is a game in a possible look-ahead spot. Sure, the Shillelagh Trophy is on the line again this year, but judging by the 28-point betting line, it is all but Notre Dame’s for the taking. The Peacock network even made kickoff for this game an odd 2 p.m. EST time slot. It also takes place in September, which is a month that’s caused coach Marcus Freeman nightmares.

Matchups That Matter

Furthermore, there is still a cloud over the running back room. Will there be division if Aneyas Williams doesn’t start? Can Nolan James carry the majority of the load? In comparison, the Notre Dame running back room had a field day against Purdue last season. Jeremiyah Love carried the ball 19 times for 157 yards and two touchdowns. Jadarian Price added nine carries for 74 yards and three touchdowns. Price also returned a kickoff 100 yards for a touchdown. It should also be mentioned that Love and Price each had at least one run of 20 yards or more during last year’s contest against Purdue. Through three games, Notre Dame and Arkansas are the only Power-4 teams without a run of at least 20 yards.

Regardless of what happens in the running back room this weekend, Notre Dame should still find itself in good shape as quarterback CJ Carr will be leading his team against Purdue, and the Heisman hopeful has been fantastic so far in 2026. Carr is 16th in the nation with 9.9 yards per pass thrown. Carr is also 14th in QB rating, placing him among the top in the country. He’ll be facing a Purdue defense that is currently ranked 106th in opponents’ yards per pass attempt, allowing 8.5 yards per completion.

The Boilermakers likely feel their team is in good hands too while being led by their quarterback, Ryan Browne. Purdue will feature the toughest passing offense the Irish have faced so far this season. Browne is currently ranked third in the country in passing yards per game with 366.7. After just three games, Browne has already accumulated 1,024 passing yards, including seven touchdowns and one interception. Last year against Notre Dame, Browne completed 21 of 34 attempts for 250 yards with one touchdown and one interception.

On Saturday, Browne will be facing an Irish defense that’s ranked third in pass defense, allowing 134.7 yards per game, including a game against a Rice team that completed eight passes on 12 attempts. He will also be facing All-American defensive back Leonard Moore, who has been targeted just six times this season. Those six targets resulted in two catches for 16 yards. Browne will also be facing a Notre Dame secondary already missing its starting safety, Brauntae Johnson, and now possibly its reserve safety in Luke Talich as well.

The Pick and Behind Enemy Lines

The Pick
Purdue is a 28-point home underdog, with the total of the game sitting at 58. The Boilermakers average around 73 offensive plays per game, and Browne averages nearly 10 yards per completion. In fairness, Browne hasn’t faced a defense near the level of Notre Dame’s this season, but the Irish haven’t faced an offense with a passing game as potent as Purdue’s. This will be the first real test for transfer cornerbacks DJ McKinney and Jayden Sanders, as well as true freshman safety Joey O’Brien. It will also be a true test for Christian Gray in his newly acquired nickel position. Pick: Purdue +28

Behind Enemy Lines Week 4:

Wisconsin (2-1) (1-2 ATS) at #13 Penn State (3-0) (2-1 ATS)
Wisconsin clipped the wings of the Eastern Michigan Eagles last week, 54-10. Penn State spanked Buffalo, 55-13. The Badgers are 4-1 ATS in their last five conference games. Penn State is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games. The line on Penn State is trending down to -10.5, as well as the total of 45. Pick: Wisconsin +10.5

Rice (1-2) (2-1 ATS) at Fresno State (2-1) (2-1 ATS)
The Owls lost a close one at home to Western Michigan, 28-21. The Bulldogs traveled to San Jose State and departed with their second win of the season, 26-10. Rice is 0-4 ATS as a road underdog in its last four games. Under is 7-2 in Fresno State’s last nine non-conference games. Fresno State is -13.5 with a total sitting firmly at 44.5. Pick: Under 44.5

Nebraska (3-0) (2-1 ATS) at Michigan State (2-1) (3-0 ATS)
Nebraska shot down the North Dakota Fighting Hawks, 34-7. Michigan State fell to Notre Dame, 27-10. The over is 7-2 in Nebraska’s last nine games as a favorite. Michigan State is 5-1 ATS in its last six conference games. Nebraska is -5.5 and trending upward. The total is 48.5. Pick: Over 48 (buy the .5 point)

North Carolina (2-1) (1-2 ATS) – Bye
The Tar Heels were outscored by 19 in the second half against Clemson as the Tigers went on to win, 28-20. North Carolina will have two weeks to prepare for the Irish. Next game: Notre Dame

Georgia Tech (1-2) (0-3 ATS) at Stanford (1-2) (1-2 ATS)
The Yellow Jackets stung Mercer, 44-11. Stanford was outsmarted at Duke, 35-7. The over is 5-5 in Georgia Tech’s last 10 games. Stanford is 5-5 ATS in its last 10 games. Georgia Tech is -3.5 with a total of 48. Pick: Georgia Tech -3 (buy the .5 point)

#9 BYU (3-0) (3-0 ATS) – Bye
The Cougars handed Colorado State its first loss of the season, 41-23. BYU running back LJ Martin finished the game with 176 yards rushing on 15 carries, including three touchdowns. Next game: at TCU

Navy (1-1) (0-2 ATS) at UAB (1-2) (1-2 ATS)
During week 2, the Midshipmen scored 16 unanswered points in the second half, but it wasn’t enough as Florida Atlantic handed them their first loss, 38-30. Meanwhile, UAB couldn’t handle the spice at UL Lafayette as they were burned, 21-14. Even without its starting quarterback, Navy will head to Alabama as 6.5-point favorites with a total of 51.5. Pick: Navy -6 (buy the .5 point)

Central Michigan (2-1) (1-2 ATS) at #6 Miami (3-0) (2-1 ATS)
The Hurricanes toyed with Wake Forest as they notched their third win by the score of 33-20. Central Michigan made it two straight wins after lassoing Wyoming, 24-10. The Chippewas are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a road underdog. Miami is 11-4-1 in its last 16 non-conference games. Miami is a whopping 41.5-point favorite with a total of 54. Pick: Miami -41.5

Virginia Tech (3-0) (3-0 ATS) at Boston College (2-1) (1-2 ATS)
The Hokies won at Maryland, 35-26. Boston College secured its first win of the season over Rutgers two weeks ago, 28-21, before sliding by Maine last week, 22-16. The total has gone over in seven of Virginia Tech’s last 10 games. Boston College is 5-5 ATS in its last 10 games. Virginia Tech is -13.5 but trending upward, with a total of 48.5. Pick: Virginia Tech -13.5

Missouri State (1-2) (1-2 ATS) at #22 SMU (2-1) (2-1 ATS)
Missouri State lost at home to Marshall, 30-24. SMU was outscored 27-14 in the second half of its 41-31 loss to Louisville. Missouri State is 1-5 ATS in its last six games. SMU is 5-0 ATS in its last five games as a home favorite. SMU is currently -35.5 with a total of 59. Pick: Missouri State +35.5

Syracuse (1-2) (1-2 ATS) – Bye
The Orange looked terrible at Pittsburgh last Thursday night, losing 27-13. Former Notre Dame quarterback Steve Angeli was benched after completing 13 of 25 passes for 161 yards and two interceptions. Next game: at UConn

*Notre Dame 2026 opponents are listed in bold