What Though the Odds: Notre Dame Football Betting Info for the Miami Game

It wasn’t pretty, but the Irish did what it needed to do to secure its seventh win of the season last week. The ugliness began in the first half as Notre Dame’s defense allowed Navy to score on its first three drives. Fortunately, Notre Dame’s offense countered Navy with touchdowns on two of its first three, first-half possessions which granted them a one-point lead at half time. The second half featured the Notre Dame defense of old as Navy was held to just 55 yards of total offense while the Irish offense added 21 more points to the scoreboard.

The 35-13 win over the Midshipmen wasn’t free, however. It came with a hospital bill to the sum of Drayk Bowen, Francis Brewu, and Jason Onye. Bowen’s ankle was rolled on and that injury will cost him the remainder of the regular season. Brewu and Onye sustained knee injuries that have their statuses listed as questionable for this weekend. Next up: Miami

Key Injuries

Notre Dame

WR Quincy Porter (knee), OL Charles Jagusah (arm), OL Chris Terek (knee), DL Christopher Burgess Jr. (tibia), DL Tiki Hola (knee), LB Ko’o Kia (shoulder), DB Chaz Smith (wrist), S Brauntae Johnson (foot) and CB DJ McKinney (ankle), and LB Drayk Bowen (ankle) are out. DL Francis Brewu (knee) and DL Jason Onye (knee) are questionable.

Miami

DB OJ Frederique, DB Ja’ Boree Antoine, and WR Malachi Toney are out. DL Villiami Moala, WR Keeyun Chapman, DL Vodney Cleveland, DL Jimmy-Phrisco Alo-Suliafu, DB Peyton Waters and DB Tre Miller are questionable.

Betting Trends:

• Notre Dame is 18-9-1 all-time against Miami.
• College Football National Championship odds: Notre Dame +550
• Notre Dame lost to Miami last season 27-24.
• Notre Dame is 4-4 ATS in 2026.
• The total has gone over in seven of Notre Dame’s last 11 games.

Line (Point Spread) and Total (Over/Under)

#1 Miami (8-0) (5-3 ATS) at #4 Notre Dame (7-1) (4-4 ATS)

The first edition of the College Football Playoff rankings came out on Tuesday night and Notre Dame found itself positioned at #11. Social media was filled with fans wondering how a one-loss Notre Dame team was ranked so low as compared to their #4 ranking in the AP Poll. While that question remains unclear, the one thing that was made crystal clear was how the playoff committee felt about the Irish.  By positioning Notre Dame at #11 heading into this weekend’s game, the committee left no doubt that a loss to #1 Miami would eliminate Notre Dame from the college football playoffs again this season for good.

The playoff ranking, including the increased magnitude and desperation of this weekend’s game, could have all been avoided if Notre Dame had beaten then-No. 8 BYU a few weeks ago. Instead, the Irish slept walk through most of that game which led to their first loss of the season.

Former Notre Dame Head Coach, Lou Holtz once said, “The man who complains about the way the ball bounces is likely the one who dropped it”. That quote couldn’t be any truer than right now for Notre Dame. Coach Holtz also used to say that a good head coach could only get his team up emotionally for a couple of games per season. Current Notre Dame Head Coach Marcus Freeman shouldn’t have to say a word this week to motivate his players for Miami. The intensity they bring into the game will be on them and rightfully so. Games like this are why they chose to play football at Notre Dame in the first place.

Leaders such as CJ Carr should want to release some of the pain the team has kept from its week-1 loss to Miami a season ago. That was not only Carr’s first start at quarterback for Notre Dame, but it was his first collegiate start ever. In that game he completed 19 of 30 passes for 221 yards, two touchdowns and one interception.

Most recently, Carr finished with a surprising-10 incompletions versus Navy last week which dropped him three spots to 19^th in in the country in passing efficiency with a rating of 162.48. Carr is also 35^th in completion percentage with .667 and 45^th in yards per completion averaging 12.49 yards per catch.

Carr will attempt to dissect a Miami defense that is currently ranked 81^st in pass efficiency defense with 134.69. To make matters worse, the Hurricanes are 122^nd in passing yards allowed with 251.9 YPG.

The passing game will not be the only position group seeking redemption on Saturday night. The coaching staff should also be looking to learn from their mistakes versus Miami when it comes to rushing offense. Last year while having two first-round running backs in Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price at their disposal the Irish coaching staff allowed just 16 combined carries. Running backs Nolan James and or Jonaz Walton may each have as many carries as that on Saturday.

Achieving big gains from those carries against the Hurricanes will not come easy as Miami possesses the nation’s top ranked defense when it comes to rushing yards allowing just 60.8 yards per game. Miami has allowed 486 yards rushing on 206 carries (2.36 YPC) through eight games. Those stats include games against Florida A&M and Central Michigan in which those teams combined for 58 rushing yards respectively.

Perhaps the most difficult aspect of the game will come on defense for Notre Dame as they’ll be asked to slow down Darian Mensah. The Heisman frontrunner is currently No.1 in the country with a passing efficiency of 202.66. Miami’s passing offense is 4^th in the nation averaging 332.4 yards per game. It’s worth noting that 1,027 of Mensah’s 2,425 passing yards including 13 touchdowns have gone to Hurricanes’ receiver Malachi Toney who was scratched from Saturday’s contest due to a high ankle sprain suffered during Wednesday’s practice.

The remainder of the Hurricanes’ receiving corps will be facing a Notre Dame defense that is ranked 6^th in passing yards allowed allowing 150.9 yards per game, but that number is skewed as that includes two games against option offenses. During week-two, Rice threw for only 64 yards and Navy followed that up with 33 passing yards last week.

The Irish are also 32^nd in team Passing Efficiency Defended with 118.96. The Irish secondary will be led by Leonard Moore. The All-American defensive back suffered a concussion during week-5 at North Carolina and hasn’t looked the same since so much so that he served as a reserve last week against Navy. His health will be vital in this matchup.

Regardless of slowing down Mensah, Notre Dame’s defense will also be tasked with stopping Miami’s ground game that features Mark Fletcher Jr. and Javian Mallory. The Hurricane’s running back room is 21^st in the nation averaging 202.5 yards per game.

They’ll be facing Notre Dame’s 7^th ranked rush defense. However, it is unclear how much of the run defense will be present on Saturday as the Irish sustained a few injuries on defense during last weekend’s game against Navy. Linebacker Drayk Bowen injured his ankle and is out for the season while defensive linemen Francis Brewu and Jason Onye sustained knee injuries and have been listed as questionable on this week’s injury report.

The Pick

Before the news broke on Toney’s injury Wednesday evening, multiple sports books already had Notre Dame listed as high as seven-point favorites with the total hovering around 57. Following the news of the injury, the total dropped to as low as 55 at some books, but the line remained virtually the same across the board.

Based off rankings, statistics, Notre Dame’s recent defensive injuries, slow starts, etc., in what world should Notre Dame be favored by a touchdown over top-ranked Miami, if favored at all? And even now with Toney sidelined, should the Irish really be favored by that many points?

The truth is that on the surface sometimes betting odds do not make sense. Sometimes point-spreads appear to be too good to be true. And after nearly 40 years of sports betting experience one thing has held true: the side that doesn’t make sense, the team appearing to be wrongfully favored, and the wager that feels like it has no shot at winning is usually the right side to be on. No bet is ever a guarantee, but the ugly bets cash more times than not. Pick: Notre Dame -7

Behind Enemy Lines Week 10:

Rutgers (2-6) (4-3 ATS) at Wisconsin (5-3) (4-4 ATS)

The Badgers scored exactly zero points in their 30-0 shutout at Iowa last weekend. Michigan did what he needed to do to add its 5^th win over the season as they beat Rutgers, 28-2. Rutgers’ last four games have gone under the total. Wisconsin is 5-5 ATS in their last 10 home games. The Badgers are -17.5 with a total of 46.  Pick: Under 46

Rice (1-7) (4-4 ATS) at North Texas (6-2) (5-3 ATS)

Rice will enter this week’s game fresh from having last weekend off. Meanwhile, North Texas added its fifth-straight win after outscoring Florida Atlantic, 48-41. Rice is 0-7 SU in their last seven games. The Mean Green’s last six games have gone over the total. North Texas is -17 with a total of 64. Pick: North Texas-17

Michigan State (2-6) (5-3 ATS) at Michigan (5-3) (3-5 ATS)

The Spartans took last weekend off to recover from their 28-10 loss to UCLA the week prior. Michigan gained confidence after its 28-21 victory over Rutgers. Michigan State has lost six straight games. In their last four meetings, the Wolverines are 4-0 SU against the Spartans. Michigan is -13 with a 39.5. Pick: Michigan -13

Maryland (2-6) (3-5 ATS) at Purdue (3-5) (3-5 ATS)

The Terrapins were outscored 13-10 in their 20-17 loss to Illinois. Purdue managed just three second-half points in their 31-17 loss at Penn State. Maryland has lost six straight games. Eight of Purdue’s last 10 games have gone over the total. Purdue is -6.5 with a total of 57. Pick: Over 57

North Carolina (4-4) (5-3 ATS) at UConn (4-4) (5-3 ATS)

The Tar Heels suffered a home invasion from Miami, 38-35. UConn was outscored 14-0 during the 1^st quarter of its 35-26 loss at Air Force. Six of North Carolina’s last 10 games have gone over. UConn is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 home games. North Carolina is -7 with a total of 55. Pick: UConn +7

Stanford (4-5) (3-6 ATS) – Bye

Stanford added its fifth loss of the year after being smacked around by Louisville, 52-24. Stanford’s defense surrendered 545 yards of total offense. Next game: at Virginia Tech

#8 BYU (7-1) (6-2 ATS) at Utah (8-0) (7-1 ATS)

BYU recovered from its loss at UCF by beating Arizona State, 27-20. Utah declawed the Cincinnati Bearcats, 49-25. BYU is 6-4 ATS in its last 10 road games. Utah has won 10-straight games. Utah is -5 with a 48.5. Pick: Utah -5

Temple (2-6) (4-4 ATS) at Navy (2-6) (3-5 ATS)

Temple lost a slugfest at East Carolina, 17-9. Navy was sunk by the Irish, 35-13. Temple has lost three games in a row. Seven of Navy’s last 10 home games have gone over. Navy is -7.5 with a total of 54.5. Pick: Temple +7.5

Florida State (3-5) (3-5 ATS) at Boston College (4-4) (5-3 ATS)

The Seminoles lost their third straight game falling at home to Clemson, 36-24. Similarly, Boston College was backhanded at Duke, 47-2. Florida State is 0-10 SU in its last 10 road games. Seven of Boston College’s last 10 games have gone under the total. Florida State is -6.5 with a total of 51. Pick: Boston College +6.5

Virginia Tech (6-2) (5-3 ATS) at SMU (6-2) (4-4 ATS)

Virginia Tech enjoyed last weekend off following their 20-16 win over Clemson the week prior. SMU lost 30-27 to Syracuse as the Orange scored with 17 seconds remaining in the game. Nine of Virginia Tech’s last 10 away games have gone under the total. SMU has won 10-straight games at home. SMU is -6 with a total of 56. Pick: Virginia Tech +6

Clemson (5-3) (3-5 ATS) at Syracuse (4-4) (5-3 ATS)

The Tigers won what was arguably their biggest win of the season at lowly Florida State, 36-24. Syracuse won 30-27 against SMU thanks to late game heroics by former Notre Dame quarterback Steve Angeli. Five of Clemson’s last 10 games have gone over. Syracuse is 4-5-1 ATS in its last 10 home games. Clemson is -2.5 with a total of 50. Pick: Clemson -2.5