Frankie V’s Prediction: How Many Chances Will Navy Give Notre Dame Football?

Two weeks after a 28-24 loss at BYU snapped its 16-game winning streak, No. 5 Notre Dame is finally back on the field. The Irish (6-1) face Navy (2-5) at noon on ABC from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass., looking to get the taste of Provo out of their mouths before the big showdown with Miami next week.

Notre Dame has won eight straight in the series and is favored by around 30 points. This one shouldn’t be close, but Navy games have a way of feeling closer than they are, and there are a couple of things I’ll be watching closely today.

What Worries Me

Navy limiting Notre Dame’s possessions
The option always has the ability to kill the clock, and Navy’s offense has been playing well lately. The Midshipmen have scored at least 34 points in each of their last three games, and junior quarterback Jackson Gutierrez is the reason why. Gutierrez has run for more than 225 yards twice in the last three weeks, including 228 yards and three touchdowns in last week’s 49-39 loss to North Texas, and he has 12 rushing touchdowns on the season. As a team, Navy runs for around 300 yards a game, which ranks among the best in the country.

Every long drive Navy strings together is one less possession for CJ Carr and the Irish offense. It doesn’t help that Notre Dame ranks 89th nationally in red zone defense, with opponents scoring on 86.7% of their trips inside the 20. If Navy can turn a couple of those marathon drives into touchdowns, this game will stay tighter than it should for longer than anyone would like.

Injuries
This is always a worry against Navy because of the cut blocking, and with Miami next week, Notre Dame can’t afford any more injuries. The Irish are already without starting cornerback DJ McKinney, who hurt his ankle at BYU and is expected to miss an extended period. Sophomore Jayden Sanders gets the start in his place. Safety Tae Johnson is still out with the foot injury he suffered in the opener against Wisconsin, though Marcus Freeman has said he expects Johnson back sometime in November. Linebacker Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa is also questionable with a thumb injury. The best outcome today is a big lead early and the starters watching from the sideline before the fourth quarter.

What Doesn’t Worry Me

A CJ Carr bounce back
Carr had his worst game as Notre Dame’s starter in the loss to BYU. He completed 27 of 49 passes for 261 yards without a touchdown, and his fumbled spike at the BYU 5-yard line right before halftime cost the Irish points. Before that night, he had 16 touchdown passes and just one interception through six games.

I think he bounces back today. Carr threw three touchdowns against Navy last year, going 13 of 16 for 218 yards before giving way to the backup late in the third quarter. This year’s Navy defense ranks 108th nationally in scoring defense, 102nd in yards allowed per play and 122nd on third down. Carr should have his pick of open receivers.

The Notre Dame running game
Maybe this is just projection, but I think we’ll finally see the staff realize Jonaz Walton is the best running back on the roster. The freshman set Notre Dame’s single-game rushing record for a freshman with 181 yards against Stanford, including a 97-yard touchdown run, and went into the BYU game averaging 7.9 yards per carry. He still hasn’t been treated like the lead back. Today should be the day that changes.

Players to Watch

• Luke Talich – This has the feel of a game where he finishes with 10 or more tackles. Navy is going to run the ball a ton, and plenty of those runs will end with a safety making the stop. Talich set a career high with eight tackles at BYU, so double digits would be a new personal best.
• Jaylen Sneed – The fifth-year linebacker has seen as much option football as anyone on this defense, and his speed isn’t something Navy can really deal with. Sneed is coming off seven tackles at BYU, his best game of the season.
• Mylan Graham – Maybe this is finally the week Mike Denbrock and company find a way to use the wide receiver they sank a ton of resources into out of the portal. Graham was a five-star recruit at Ohio State, and Denbrock raved about his explosiveness in the spring, but the production hasn’t followed yet. A struggling Navy secondary is the right opponent to get him going.
• Boubacar Traore – He hasn’t played the option a lot, but he should be looking to make a statement after his day at BYU ended on the fifth play of the game with a targeting ejection. Before that, Traore led Notre Dame in sacks (3.5) and tackles for loss (5.5). He’s also a Boston native, so this is something of a homecoming for him in Foxborough.
• Jaden Greathouse – Was the BYU game his reemergence? Greathouse had a career-high eight catches for 125 yards in Provo. His only bigger day came in the national championship game against Ohio State, when he went for 128. If Notre Dame keeps featuring him like that, he’s in for another big afternoon.

Prediction Time

I think Navy does limit how many scoring chances Notre Dame has, which will make the final score look closer than the game really is. Navy won’t sustain its offense all day, but it will have a couple of long, time-consuming drives. Offensively, Notre Dame should be able to do whatever it wants.

The other edge is ball security. Notre Dame is plus-14 in turnover margin, second in the country, while Navy sits at minus-6 and has had trouble hanging onto the football. One or two Navy fumbles and this gets out of hand quickly. Notre Dame has scored at least 35 points in all four meetings with Navy under Freeman, and I don’t see that streak ending today.

Notre Dame 42, Navy 17