Notre Dame Football vs. Miami Weather Report: A Cold Night and No Malachi Toney

Notre Dame and Miami kick off at 7:30 tonight under a cold, dry sky in South Bend. The temperature should sit right around 40 degrees when the ball goes up and keep falling from there, reaching the mid-30s before the game ends.

The Hurricanes arrive unbeaten and ranked No. 1. They also arrive in conditions they rarely see at home, and without Malachi Toney, the sophomore receiver who has carried their passing game all season.

Game Details

• Matchup: No. 1 Miami (8-0) at No. 4 Notre Dame (7-1)
• Kickoff: Tonight, 7:30 p.m. ET
• Location: Notre Dame Stadium, Notre Dame, Ind.
• TV/Streaming: NBC, Peacock
• Gates open: 6:00 p.m.

Tonight’s Forecast

Friday’s lake effect showers have moved out, and no rain or snow is expected for the game. The afternoon should top out in the upper 40s for tailgaters before the temperature starts dropping toward sundown.

• Kickoff: around 40 degrees
• Halftime: upper 30s
• Final whistle: mid-30s

Local forecasters also expect a breeze at times, which could push the feels-like temperature down into the low 30s by the fourth quarter.

Why the Cold Matters for Miami

Miami doesn’t see many games like this. The Hurricanes play in South Florida heat for most of their schedule, and a night kickoff in South Bend in November asks them to handle a cold ball, cold hands and a stiffer field for three-plus hours.

There is a counterpoint worth keeping in mind. Miami went to Pittsburgh last November with temperatures in the mid-30s and scored 38 points. Mario Cristobal’s teams are built around the line of scrimmage, and that style travels better than a finesse offense would.

Still, one cold game in Pittsburgh is different from walking into Notre Dame Stadium as the No. 1 team in the country, at night, in a building where Miami hasn’t won since 1984. Notre Dame practices in this weather every week in November. Miami does not.

Miami Without Malachi Toney

The bigger blow for Miami came on Wednesday. Toney rolled his ankle after getting tangled up with a cornerback in practice, and testing showed a high ankle sprain. He was scheduled for tightrope surgery on Thursday, a procedure that has become a common fix for that injury in football.

Recovery usually runs four to six weeks. Miami expects him back for the postseason, and the ACC Championship Game on Dec. 5 looks like the earliest realistic return.

Few players in the country mean more to their offense. Toney has 73 catches for 1,027 yards and 13 touchdowns through eight games. He accounts for 35 percent of Miami’s receptions and 46 percent of its touchdown catches, for an offense averaging a nation-best 47.6 points per game.

That leaves Darian Mensah searching for a new go-to target. Cooper Barkate (28 catches, 372 yards, four touchdowns) is the next most productive receiver on the roster, with Daylyn Upshaw (22 catches, 263 yards, two touchdowns) behind him.

Toney’s absence also takes away the matchup a lot of people had circled. Leonard Moore sat out the 35-13 win over Navy while getting healthy and is expected back tonight. Instead of Miami’s best receiver, he will line up against a group trying to replace him.

What It Adds Up To

Cold air and a missing No. 1 receiver both push in the same direction for Miami. Throwing the ball gets harder in the 30s, and the Hurricanes no longer have the player who made their passing game work. If Miami wants to control this game, it may have to do it on the ground.

For fans heading to the stadium, plan for the mid-30s rather than 40. Dress in layers and bring gloves. It will feel a lot colder by the fourth quarter than it does when you walk in.