Frankie V’s Prediction: Will Notre Dame Rise to the Moment in Must Win Miami Showdown?

Notre Dame finally gets its shot at Miami on Saturday night in South Bend, a rematch of last season’s game that sent the Hurricanes to the College Football Playoff and left the Irish at home. Miami arrives unbeaten at 8-0, but it arrives without Malachi Toney, its top receiver, who had ankle surgery this week. The game has now become a must win for the Irish if they are to have any hopes at making the playoffs this year after debuting at #11 in this week’s initial rankings.

What Worries Me

Notre Dame coming out flat in another big game. Over the last two seasons, Notre Dame has not performed well in its biggest games, and it hasn’t started well in any of them. Even last week against Navy, the Irish trailed 13-7 deep into the second quarter before pulling away. Miami is the best team Notre Dame will see this year and leads the country at 47.6 points per game. A slow start against an offense like that can turn into a hole the Irish can’t climb out of.

CJ Carr having another inconsistent game. Carr has been uneven in big games. At times he looks almost too amped up early and misses throws he normally makes with ease. It happened multiple times against BYU, starting on the opening drive when he missed what should have been a touchdown to Jordan Faison. He missed other very completable touchdown passes later in that game too, and Notre Dame lost it 28-24. Carr can’t leave points on the field like that against Miami. Notre Dame needs Carr to have his best game of his career Saturday night.

The game plans from both coordinators. I was not impressed with what either Chris Ash or Mike Denbrock did against BYU. Denbrock at least has some history of performing better in big games. Ash’s defense has not played well against top offenses over the last two seasons, and Miami brings the best offense Notre Dame has faced. Even with Toney out, the Hurricanes still have a Heisman-caliber quarterback in Darian Mensah, who has completed 80.7 percent of his passes for 2,425 yards with 25 touchdowns and just one interception.

What Doesn’t Worry Me

Notre Dame’s offense being able to move the ball. Miami’s defense has been vulnerable through the air. The Hurricanes are allowing 267.3 passing yards per game, which ranks 118th nationally, and they gave up 980 passing yards and 10 passing touchdowns over their last three games against Florida State, Pitt, and North Carolina. Miami does get after the quarterback, with 24 sacks on the year and seven from Marquise Lightfoot, but Notre Dame’s offensive line has allowed just two sacks through eight games, fewest in the country. Notre Dame should be able to move the ball on this defense.

Notre Dame getting a big play from Jonaz Walton. Notre Dame did not use Walton well against BYU, where he got just five carries, and it waited too long to get him involved against Navy too. I am cautiously optimistic the staff won’t make that mistake again and that he gets touches early. If he does, I expect a big night. The freshman is averaging 6.9 yards per carry with 477 yards and four touchdowns on the season. Against Stanford he ran for 181 yards and two scores on 13 carries, including a 97-yard touchdown that was the third-longest play in Notre Dame history.

Notre Dame’s defensive injuries. These injuries are not insignificant by any means, but Toney’s absence takes some of the sting out of them. Toney has more than 1,000 receiving yards and 13 touchdown catches this season. Losing DJ McKinney for a second straight game would have been a massive problem with Toney on the field, especially with Brauntae Johnson still out after the foot injury he suffered in the season opener. Drayk Bowen is out too, and Francis Brewu and Jason Onye are officially questionable with knee injuries. How much either lineman plays remains to be seen, and it would be nice to get some snaps from both. Still, the injury list is a lot less frightening without Notre Dame also having to chase Toney around all night.

Players to Watch

Jayden Sanders. Sanders is an obvious one with McKinney out again. The Michigan transfer has played well since stepping into the starting lineup, but Miami is by far the best offense he has faced in that role. Toney being out helps, but Mensah will still test him.

Tionne Gray. More will be expected of Gray with the injuries piling up on the defensive line. Brewu and Onye are questionable, and Christopher Burgess Jr. and Tiki Hola are already out. How well the Oregon transfer holds up with what will likely be an increased snap count will be interesting to watch.

Jerome Bettis Jr. Bettis was impressive in the second half against Navy, finishing with a team-high six catches for 78 yards and his first career touchdown, a 31-yarder from Carr in the fourth quarter. He played well enough to earn more snaps. Whether he cracks the rotation against Miami is worth watching.

Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa. With Bowen out, there will be more snaps for KVA, who did not play against Navy but came off the injury report this week. He is going to need to have his best game of the season.

Jordan Faison. I don’t usually list a headliner here, and Faison is Notre Dame’s leading receiver. This feels like a game where he could really take advantage of how Miami’s pass defense has played, though, and a big night from him would go a long way toward Notre Dame winning.

Frankie V’s Prediction

I have waffled on this one all week long. If Toney were healthy, I would be picking Miami for sure. Even without him, I don’t have a great feeling about Notre Dame’s chances given how it played against a BYU team it should have beaten by 10 points.

When all is said and done, though, this is a moment for CJ Carr to step up and shine. If there was ever a time for him to do it, it’s right now.

Notre Dame 31, Miami 28