Following Notre Dame’s 16-14 loss to Northern Illinois during week two last season, one place college football fans thought they’d never see the Irish end up in was the National Title Game. All Notre Dame had to do was win its remaining 10 regular-season games as well as three playoff games to get there. While that was quite the feat for the 2024 team, it means nothing for 2025.
One person who knew how to handle that kind of success was former Notre Dame head coach Lou Holtz. After all, he coached the last team to win a national title for Notre Dame, which dates back to 1988. Holtz was known for his motivational speeches and savvy quotes. One of his most famous quotes is one that this year’s team may find some value in as it enters this season on the coattails of last year’s success:
“If what you did yesterday seems big, you haven’t done anything today.”
That’s a message that must be remembered heading into Miami.
Key Injuries
Notre Dame
RB Kedren Young (knee), TE Cooper Flannigan (Achilles), and OL Charles Jagusah (arm) are out. TE Kevin Bauman (retired).
Miami
No injuries to report.
Notre Dame Betting Trends
- Notre Dame is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games.
- The total has gone over in eight of Notre Dame’s last 12 games.
- Miami is 3-5 ATS in its last nine games.
- Notre Dame is 18-8-1 all-time against Miami.
Line (Point Spread) and Total (Over/Under)
#6 Notre Dame –2.5 (0-0, 0-0 ATS) at #10 Miami (0-0, 0-0 ATS)
Playing on the road in week one is what some teams shy away from, much less against a ranked opponent, but that is what separates them from a program like Notre Dame. This week’s game at Miami will mark the fifth consecutive year that Notre Dame has played its week one game away from home.
“There is something about going on the road,” Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman explained. “It’s you against the world. It’s your group. There are no distractions. It’s just you guys and you’re taking your show on the road versus a great opponent at night. What a way to start a college football season. It’s something we enjoy. We embrace.
“But it’s why you go to Notre Dame,” Freeman continued. “That’s why you coach at Notre Dame. It is to play in games like this throughout the year, but especially week one. It’s a night game, prime time, week one, and everybody is watching you versus a heck of an opponent. That’s what any competitor wants.”
One competitor leading the way for Notre Dame will be fresh off a competition of his own, and that’s quarterback CJ Carr. The Saline High School product edged out redshirt sophomore quarterback Kenny Minchey for the starting role. Sunday night will mark Carr’s first start at Notre Dame. The consensus four-star recruit finished his senior season of high school with 2,754 yards passing and 24 touchdowns. He also rushed for 91 yards on 59 carries, including nine touchdowns. The redshirt freshman will be looking to complete his first college pass against the new-look Hurricanes defense.
Last season’s Miami team relied heavily on the athleticism of quarterback Cam Ward to keep them in games, as the defense was unreliable at times. However, Ward was selected first overall in this year’s NFL Draft, so former Georgia Bulldogs quarterback Carson Beck was inserted for him via the transfer portal. To avoid having to rely heavily on the quarterback position again this season, Miami added a plethora of defenders to shore up its defense, including seven players in the secondary (three expected to start) and one to the defensive line. The Hurricanes also hired Corey Hetherman away from Minnesota and named him defensive coordinator.
The Irish are favored by 2.5 points in this matchup, and that point spread has remained the same since the start of summer camp. Last week’s announcement of the starting quarterback for Notre Dame did not alter the spread at all, which was expected considering both Carr and Minchey have been under offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock’s tutelage for multiple years. The total did drop, however, from 54 to 50. Some books have the total as low as 49.5 now. Many bettors are likely expecting each team to play conservatively, given that there will be new starting quarterbacks under center for each team.
Looking at this game, Notre Dame should have the edge in every matchup on both sides of the ball, with maybe an exception at quarterback — but that is only because Beck has considerably more college experience than Carr. However, Beck has zero experience playing for Miami.
The old adage in football is that defense travels. Fortunately for Notre Dame, its defense is expected to be one of the best in the country yet again this season. Combine the Irish defense with arguably the best running back stable in the country, and the pick leans heavily in one direction.
Pick: Notre Dame –2.5
Behind Enemy Lines Week 1
UTSA (0-0, 0-0 ATS) at #19 Texas A&M (0-0, 0-0 ATS)
UTSA went 5-0 ATS in its last five games in 2025. It was 1-7 SU in its last eight road games. Texas A&M finished last season 0-5 ATS in its final five games. The total has gone under in four of A&M’s last five week one games. The Aggies opened at –21 before climbing to –22.5 at most books. The total is sitting at 56.5.
Pick: Texas A&M –22.5
Ball State (0-0, 0-0 ATS) at Purdue (0-0, 0-0 ATS)
The total has gone under in Ball State’s last five games versus a Big Ten opponent. Ball State is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 games. Purdue is 2-5 SU in its last seven season openers. The total has gone over in seven of Purdue’s last nine games against a Mid-American Conference team. The Boilermakers are firm at –17 across the board. The total rose from 49.5 to 50.5.
Pick: Over 50.5
Alabama A&M (0-0, 0-0 ATS) at Arkansas (0-0, 0-0 ATS)
Arkansas finished the 2025 season with a 7-6 record. The Razorbacks defeated Texas Tech in the Liberty Bowl, 39-26. Betting line is N/A.
Next week: Arkansas State
#25 Boise State (0-0, 0-0 ATS) at South Florida (0-0, 0-0 ATS)
The Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last five games. Boise State is 4-0-1 in its last five games versus a team from the American Athletic Conference. The total has gone under in six of USF’s last seven week one games. The line opened with Boise State –9.5 before falling to –6. The total remained steady at 64.
Pick: Boise State –6
East Carolina (0-0, 0-0 ATS) at NC State (0-0, 0-0 ATS)
ECU is 2-4 ATS in its last six games at NC State. The total has gone under in ECU’s last six season openers. The total has gone under in four of the Wolfpack’s last five games versus an American Athletic Conference opponent. NC State enters this matchup –12.5. The total has risen drastically from 56.5 to as high as 60.5.
Pick: NC State –12.5
Missouri State (0-0, 0-0 ATS) at USC (0-0, 0-0 ATS)
The Bears are 0-20 SU in their last 20 road games. The total has gone over in eight of Missouri State’s last 11 games. USC is 8-0 SU in its last eight season openers. The Trojans are favored by a whopping –35 over the inferior Bears. The total is holding firm at 59.5.
Pick: USC –35
Fordham (0-0, 0-0 ATS) at Boston College (0-0, 0-0 ATS)
Boston College finished last season 7-6, including a 25-20 loss to Nebraska in the Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl. Betting line is N/A.
Next week: at Michigan State
VMI (0-0, 0-0 ATS) at Navy (0-0, 0-0 ATS)
Navy finished 2024 with a 10-3 record. The Midshipmen defeated Oklahoma in the Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl, 21-20. Betting line is N/A.
Next week: UAB
Duquesne (0-0, 0-0 ATS) at Pittsburgh (0-0, 0-0 ATS)
Pitt finished last season 7-6. After playing six overtimes, the Panthers lost to Toledo, 48-46. Betting line: N/A.
Next week: Central Michigan
Syracuse (0-0, 0-0 ATS) at #24 Tennessee (0-0, 0-0 ATS)
Syracuse has gone over in its last five games versus the SEC. The Orangemen are 10-0 SU in their last 10 week one matchups. Tennessee is 3-6 in its last nine games. The Volunteers are 7-1 SU in their last eight games versus the Atlantic Coast Conference. The line moved up a notch to Tennessee –13.5. The total fell sharply from 55.5 to 51.
Pick: Over 51
Stanford (0-1, 0-1 ATS) at Hawaii (0-0, 0-0 ATS)
Stanford lost its season opener at Hawaii last week, 23-20. The Cardinal managed just 286 yards of total offense.
Next week: at BYU
Notre Dame 2025 opponents are listed in bold.
If ND DL can work OL Markel Bell (which I expect to happen) then the Canes will be in for a long night. QB Beck will be seeing the sky.
So many questions . . .how sloppy will the field be after it rains all weekend in Miami and after Saturday’s game w/Howard playing FL. A&M (as reported by ESPN)? Who decided to have a game at this stadium the night before the national game of the week on now what appears will be a wet grass field? Will Miami have their ACC refs ? Will NDs OL hold up vs. Miami’s strength, their pass rush ? Will Miami having lost their top 6 receivers from last year and Beck missing all Spring slow down the potential success of their passing game? Will the influx from the portal substantially negatively impact the communication necessary from both Miami’s D’ (especially their DBs) and the WRs with Beck ? Will C.J complete enough passes vs. Miami packing the box to stop NDs running game? Will ND sufficiently pressure veteran QB Carson Beck? What will be the success rate of FGs? Will expected early season missed tackles lead to game changing plays?
Then Capt. Obvious reminds:
Whoever makes the most chunk plays (15+ yards), and makes the fewest turnovers will prevail.
Here’s hoping the expected rain and sloppy conditions of their wet grass turf will not determine the game’s outcome. No one asked me, but:
ND 31- Miami 17
Go Irish!