Coach Marcus Freeman’s “We gotta get bloody” motto certainly resonated with the team last weekend as Notre Dame abused NC State 36–7. The Wolfpack arrived in South Bend ranked 45th in the country, averaging nearly 34 points per game. They exited Notre Dame Stadium with just seven points. Not only that, but NC State quarterback CJ Bailey was regarded as one of the nation’s top up-and-coming quarterbacks. The true sophomore was ranked 14th in the nation with a passing efficiency of 168.83. The Irish defense limited him to 17 completions on 30 attempts for 182 yards, one touchdown, and three interceptions while finishing the day with a quarterback rating of 41.2. He was also sacked four times.
That kind of defensive output came as a surprise to many, including Las Vegas oddsmakers, as they had the total on the game at 60.5, expecting points to be scored from both sides.
The other surprise came during the first half from Notre Dame’s offense. The Irish managed to score a head-scratching 10 first-half points off 241 yards of total offense. The low-scoring output was largely due to Notre Dame’s inability to convert on a pair of fourth-down short-yardage tries within the NC State 10-yard line. The second half was a different story as the Wolfpack were outscored 26–0.
Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr connected with receiver KK Smith for his first career touchdown reception, and then Carr followed that with another third-quarter touchdown throw to wideout Will Pauling. Carr finished with 342 yards passing, including seven completions for 109 yards to tight end Eli Raridon, which were both career highs for the standout tight end. In total, Notre Dame’s offense finished with 485 yards of total offense. That type of output will be needed once again this week if the Irish intend on keeping their four-game winning streak alive.
Next Up: USC
Key Injuries
Notre Dame
RB Kedren Young (knee), OL Charles Jagusah (arm), OL Peter Jones (ankle), WR Micah Gilbert (hand), and OL Ashton Craig (knee) are out. TE Kevin Bauman (retired). TE Cooper Flanagan (Achilles), DB DeVonta Smith (calf), WR Jaden Greathouse (thigh), and OL Will Black (concussion) are questionable.
USC
DL Floyd Boucard, RB Eli Sanders (knee), and RB Waymon Jordan (ankle) are out.
Betting Trends
- The total has gone over in six of Notre Dame’s last eight games.
- Notre Dame is 15–3 ATS in its last 18 games.
- USC is 1–6 SU in its last seven games versus Notre Dame.
- The total has gone over in six of USC’s last eight games.
- Matchup history: Notre Dame is 52-38-5 all-time vs. USC.
Line (Point Spread) and Total (Over/Under)
No. 20 USC (5–1) (3–3 ATS) at No. 13 Notre Dame (4–2) (4–2 ATS)
Since 1926, Notre Dame and USC have played 95 times. That length of span exemplifies this weekend’s game versus the Trojans isn’t just another opponent — it’s a rival. Could this weekend’s showdown in South Bend be the last one at Notre Dame Stadium for the foreseeable future? That could be the case, as the series is only under contract through 2026. If the series were to stop, then the breaker would likely come from the USC side of the field because its coach and administration claim a loss to the Irish during its annual matchup would carry more weight than a win within the current College Football Playoff setup.
Back in July, Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley had this to say regarding the series between Notre Dame and USC moving beyond the 2026 season:
“Do I want to play the game?” Riley asked. “Hell yeah, I want to play the game. Absolutely. It’s one of the reasons I came here. But also, my allegiance and my loyalty is not to Notre Dame. It’s not to anybody else. I’m the head football coach at USC, and I’m going to back USC, and I’m going to do everything possible that I can, in my power, to make us as good as I can.”
Part of Riley’s paranoia surrounding Notre Dame potentially costing the Trojans a spot in the College Football Playoff might stem from Riley’s 1–2 record against the Irish as head coach at USC. Two of those losses were by double digits, including one when former Heisman Trophy–winning quarterback Caleb Williams was at the helm.
Riley’s outlook on the series pales in comparison to Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman’s.
“It’s pretty black and white for me,” Freeman admitted. “You want my opinion? I want to play them every single year. When? I don’t care. I don’t care when we play them. Start of the season, middle of the season, end of the season — I don’t care. I want to play USC every year because it’s great for college football.”
The eagerness and desire by Freeman to absorb every drop of value from USC will undoubtedly be shared with his staff and players heading into kickoff this weekend. That sort of energy will be needed as the Irish will be hosting not only the 20th-ranked team in the country but also the nation’s No. 2 ranked total offense. While the potent offense will be without its two starting running backs, Eli Sanders and Waymon Jordan, it will be featuring arguably the deadliest pass-catch combination in the country. USC is ranked No. 2 in passing yards per game with 325.8.
Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava is ranked third in passing efficiency. He has thrown for 1,852 yards, 13 touchdowns, and two interceptions on the season. Forty-four of his completions have gone to wide receiver Makai Lemon for 682 yards and six scores. Lemon is ranked second in the country in total yards and yards per game (113.7). Last season, USC’s offense — including the Maiava/Lemon combination — carved up the Irish defense for 35 points. Maiava finished with 360 yards passing, three touchdowns, and two interceptions, while Lemon hauled in nine catches for 133 yards. This season, Notre Dame’s defense will be under different leadership, however, as outgoing defensive coordinator Al Golden was replaced by Chris Ash.
After giving up 91 points in the first 10 quarters of the season, the Ash-led defense has surrendered just 36 points in its last 14 quarters (3.5 games). Although Notre Dame pundits and Irish podcast warriors have acknowledged the Irish’s defensive improvement over the last three games, it is usually capped off with a “but.” They played well, but that was against Arkansas (13), Boise State (7), and NC State (7). What they’re not recognizing is that it was also those three teams’ lowest point totals in any game this season — except for Boise State, which was also held to seven points against South Florida in Week 1.
With that said, Notre Dame’s pass defense is still ranked 106th in the country and is far from dominant. One element that may assist them this weekend is Notre Dame’s offense, which ranks 21st in the country in total offense. While facing the Trojans’ 103rd-ranked pass defense, it is very possible that Notre Dame’s offense can score enough points that it takes the USC offense away from its original game plan, forcing them into costly turnovers similar to last season’s affair.
Like USC, Notre Dame has a superstar of its own at quarterback, as CJ Carr is ranked seventh in pass efficiency at 176.04. On the season, Carr has thrown for 1,622 yards, 13 touchdowns, and three interceptions. He’ll be facing a Trojans defense that’s ranked 105th in yards allowed per attempt. The Irish offense will also showcase two of the nation’s top running backs in Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price. During last season’s matchup, Love finished with 99 yards rushing (7.6 YPC) and a touchdown, while Price ended with 111 yards (9.3 YPC) and a score.
As expected, the offensive numbers combined with the poorish defensive stats mentioned above from both teams are why oddsmakers have the total on this game sitting at 62. That may not come as a surprise, but the line on this game does, as Notre Dame is currently listed as nine-point favorites. Tangibly speaking, the line does not add up when comparing numbers and personnel between these two programs. If anything, USC’s win over No. 15 Michigan last weekend is better than any victory Notre Dame has on its résumé thus far. So how in the world are the Irish favored by nine points?
It is the intangibles. It is the mindset and the value of this rivalry game that’s being passed down by each team’s respective head coaches. For better or for worse, a coach’s mindset can become contagious to his players. In the USC locker room, Riley is fearful of losing to Notre Dame and what that would do to USC’s playoff hopes — so much so that he is okay with the series ending if the playoff format does not get expanded to 16 teams.
In the Notre Dame locker room, Freeman has basically said his team is willing to face USC on any day, at any time, and at any place. Simply put, it just means more to Notre Dame, and that kind of intensity will show on Saturday night.
Pick: Notre Dame -9
Behind Enemy Lines Week 8
Louisville (4–1) (1–4 ATS) at No. 2 Miami (5–0) (4–1 ATS)
Louisville is 1–4 ATS in its last five games. The total has gone over in five of their last seven games. Miami is 4–1 ATS in its last five games. The total has gone over in four of Miami’s last five games against Louisville. The Hurricanes are sitting at -13.5 with a total of 52. (Always buy the 0.5 point.) Pick: Louisville +14
No. 4 Texas A&M (6–0) (3–3 ATS) at Arkansas (2–4) (2–4 ATS)
The Aggies are 2–5 ATS in their last seven games against Arkansas. The total has gone over in Texas A&M’s last seven road games. Arkansas is 4–12 ATS in its last 16 home games. The Razorbacks are 3–6 ATS in their last nine games. Texas A&M is firm at -7.5. The total climbed to 61.5. (Always buy the 0.5 point.) Pick: Over 61
Purdue (2–4) (3–3 ATS) at Northwestern (4–2) (4–2 ATS)
The total has gone under in four of Purdue’s last six games. Purdue is 1–4 ATS in its last five games versus Northwestern. The Wildcats are 4–2 ATS in their last six home games. The total has gone under in Northwestern’s last six games. Northwestern is hovering around -3 with a total sliding downward to 46.5. Pick: Purdue +3
UNLV (6–0) (4–2 ATS) at Boise State (4–2) (5–1 ATS)
UNLV is 4–1 ATS in its last five games. UNLV is 10–0 SU in its last 10 games. The total has gone over in four of Boise State’s last five games. The Broncos are 14–0 SU in their last 14 home games. Boise State is -11.5 with a total of 63.5. (Always buy the 0.5 point.) Pick: Over 63
NC State (4–2) (2–4 ATS) – Bye
NC State was manhandled by Notre Dame last weekend 36–7. The potent Wolfpack offense was limited to 233 yards of total offense. Next game: at Pittsburgh.
UConn (4–2) (2–2–1 ATS) at Boston College (1–5) (2–4 ATS)
UConn is 2–4 ATS in its last six games versus Boston College. The total has gone over in six of UConn’s last nine games. The total has gone under in five of the Eagles’ last six games against UConn. Boston College is 1–4 ATS in its last five games. Boston College is -2 with a total of 59. Pick: UConn +2
Navy (6–0) (2–4 ATS) – Bye
Navy quarterback Blake Horvath scored on a 51-yard run with 37 seconds remaining in the game to bring the Midshipmen within one point. Horvath then connected with Alex Tecza on the two-point conversion to take the lead for good, 32–31. Next game: FAU.
Pittsburgh (4–2) (4–2 ATS) at Syracuse (3–3) (3–2–1 ATS)
Pittsburgh is 4–2 ATS in its last six games. The total has gone over in six of Pittsburgh’s last eight games. The total has gone over in four of Syracuse’s last six home games. Syracuse is 6–1 SU in its last seven home games. Pittsburgh is -11 with a total of 55. Pick: Pittsburgh -11
Florida State (3–3) (3–3 ATS) at Stanford (2–4) (1–5 ATS)
The total has gone over in five of Florida State’s last six games. Florida State is 0–5 SU in its last five road games. Stanford is 1–6 ATS in its last seven games. Stanford is 2–8 in its last 10 ACC games. Florida State is firm at -18 with a total of 53. (Always buy the 0.5 point.) Pick: Florida State -18
*Notre Dame 2025 opponents are listed in bold.
