Notre Dame Football Weather: First Half Looks Like the Window vs. Michigan State

All week the forecast for Saturday night pointed toward a soaked stadium. The hour by hour picture has shifted a bit, and the driest stretch of the day now lines up close to the 7:30 p.m. kickoff.

The National Weather Service hourly forecast for Notre Dame puts the heaviest rain chances in the late morning and midday window, up near 85 percent from 10 a.m. through noon. Those numbers fall through the afternoon and sit in the low to mid 40s from 5 p.m. through 8 p.m. They climb again after that, to roughly 56 percent at 9 p.m., 65 percent at 10 p.m., and 74 percent at 11 p.m. Not ideal for tailgaters, but more ideal for the game itself than it looked earlier in the week.

The forecast discussion out of NWS Northern Indiana describes the same setup. Forecasters there expect a brief lull between mid level impulses Saturday afternoon into early evening, with more organized rain and thunder settling in Saturday night into Sunday.

Temperatures should sit in the low 70s at kickoff with a southeast wind under 10 miles per hour. Wind was never the concern with this system, though, the rain was.

That timing matters for how the game gets played. If the lull holds through the first half, Notre Dame gets a stretch with a dry ball and dry footing to operate the offense the way it wants to operate it. Throwing it, pushing tempo, and taking shots downfield all get harder once the ball is wet, and the rain chances start climbing again right around the time the second half should start.

The opening two quarters are the window for Notre Dame to build a lead. The Irish will need to take advantage of that window, because things could get a bit messier in the second half. If it’s dry or at least not a driving rain to start the game, look for Notre Dame to come out firing and get the ball in the air early.

A lull is not the same as completely dry though, and a 40 percent chance of rain still leaves room for showers before halftime. Lightning is the larger scheduling risk either way, since a strike within eight miles of the stadium forces a 30 minute pause under NCAA rules.

The morning is the part to plan around. Widespread rain with a lightning threat arrives early, daily totals are expected in the 1 to 3 inch range, and flooding is a concern overnight. Anyone getting to campus for a full tailgate is going to get the worst of it. Hopefully the current forecast holds and the game is not overly impacted by it, though. That’s a trade off most fans would make.