Frankie V’s Prediction: Notre Dame Football Faces Their First Real Test in Provo

Notre Dame finally gets its first ranked opponent of the season tonight. The No. 2 Irish travel to Provo to face No. 8 BYU in a matchup of unbeatens, with College GameDay in town and a 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff on ABC.

Notre Dame opened as a 10.5-point favorite, but BYU has been a tough out at home under Kalani Sitake, and the Cougars have spent the last two seasons winning games by not beating themselves. Without star running back LJ Martin, though, BYU’s margin for error against this Notre Dame defense is thin.

Here’s what has me worried, what doesn’t, the players I’m watching, and how I see it playing out.

What Worries Me This Week

The altitude in Provo

LaVell Edwards Stadium sits more than 4,600 feet above sea level, and altitude can have an effect on teams that aren’t used to it, so it is something to watch. Notre Dame director of football performance Loren Landow should have the team prepared. He spent six seasons as the head strength and conditioning coach of the Denver Broncos and has run his own sports performance company in Centennial, Colorado, since 2007. If anyone knows how to get a team ready to play at elevation, it’s Landow, but it’s still something to keep an eye on, especially if this game is close in the fourth quarter.

A long play from the BYU offense

Notre Dame’s defense should stop BYU from sustaining long drives. The Irish lead the nation in total defense at 214.2 yards per game and are allowing just 58.3 rushing yards per game. Seven straight opponents have failed to reach 100 yards on the ground. But a big play early could swing momentum to BYU and get the home crowd into a frenzy.

A long Bear Bachmeier run specifically worries me. With LJ Martin out, BYU leaned on Bachmeier last week against Iowa State and he ran for 109 yards on just nine carries. BYU’s running backs managed only 21 yards in that game, so I expect the Cougars to put the ball in Bachmeier’s hands as a runner again tonight. Notre Dame will need to spy him, and one missed tackle could turn into a long run that changes the feel of this game.

Running on BYU early

Notre Dame has found its running game against weaker defenses the last two weeks, but I worry about the Irish struggling to run early, especially if Jonaz Walton is the third back in the game again this week. Against Stanford, Walton didn’t get his first carry until Notre Dame’s 13th rushing attempt of the game. BYU’s defense has been stout against the run by the raw numbers, allowing just 3.0 yards per carry, so if the Irish don’t find early success I worry Mike Denbrock abandons the run like he can do.

What Doesn’t Worry Me This Week

CJ Carr having a big game

This is Carr’s first real opportunity to insert himself into the Heisman race and his first real big game since the back-to-back losses to start last year. He has been outstanding against a lesser schedule, completing 71% of his passes for 9.6 yards per attempt with 16 touchdowns and just one interception. He enters tonight on the short list of Heisman contenders, chasing Jeremiah Smith, who has pulled away as the clear favorite. BYU’s pass defense is legit, allowing just 5.5 yards per attempt, but I expect Carr to have a big night on the biggest stage he’s had this season.

The Notre Dame pass rush getting home

Boubacar Traore has been a monster recently. He leads the Irish with 3.5 sacks, 5.5 tackles for loss, and two forced fumbles. No Notre Dame player had forced a fumble on a sack and picked off a pass in the same game since 1998 until Traore did it against Stanford. I expect Bryce Young, who has three sacks of his own, to make his presence felt tonight as well.

BYU’s offensive line has been excellent at keeping Bachmeier clean, ranking among the national leaders in sacks allowed and tackles for loss allowed. But the Cougars are playing without starting right tackle Andrew Gentry, and they have been splitting snaps at that spot since he went down. That’s where I expect Notre Dame to win.

Leonard Moore and DJ McKinney locking up their men

Moore is officially questionable but Marcus Freeman said Thursday the team is expecting him to play. Moore has been targeted just 13 times in five games this season, allowing six catches for 57 yards and no touchdowns according to PFF, and was just named a first-team AP Midseason All-American.

I expect Chris Ash to ask both Moore and McKinney to play a ton of man and lock up their men tonight. Notre Dame will need to spy Bachmeier, so the corners will be asked to do a lot. They will be up for the task.

Players to Watch

Jonaz Walton – He needs to see the field earlier than he did a week ago. Walton broke the Notre Dame true freshman rushing record with 181 yards on 13 carries against Stanford and has 409 yards on 52 carries this season, but he’s still third on the team in carries. He’s the back most likely to break one, and he needs the ball early.

Jaden Greathouse – I have a feeling he will be in for a big night tonight. It has been a quiet season for Greathouse with 11 catches for 138 yards, but he has caught a touchdown in each of the last two games and is due for a breakout performance.

Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa – He’s back after a one-week absence with a thumb injury, and BYU hasn’t seen any linebacker this year, including the ones on its own roster, like him.

Aneyas Williams – Look for him to convert a key third down on a pass out of the backfield. I expect his role running the ball to diminish, but his skill as a receiver to be utilized. He has eight catches for 104 yards this year, including a 70-yard touchdown against Stanford when he split out wide and beat the coverage deep.

Luke Talich – I think he will get his hands on another turnover tonight. Talich already leads the team with two interceptions since stepping into the starting lineup after Brauntae Johnson’s injury. Bachmeier has thrown just one interception all season, so a takeaway won’t come easy, but Talich has a nose for the football.

Francis Brewu – Someone inside needs to have a monster game for Notre Dame, and my bet is on Brewu. BYU rarely loses yardage, and Notre Dame needs its interior to change that. Brewu was brought in to anchor the middle against the run, and tonight is the night for him to show it.

Prediction Time

This is Notre Dame’s biggest test of the season to date and BYU is certainly capable of winning tonight, but the Cougars can’t do that unless Notre Dame beats Notre Dame first. The Irish are easily the more talented team, and it might not be particularly close.

BYU wins games by not making mistakes and playing fundamentally sound football. The Cougars rank among the best in the country on third down and in avoiding negative plays. Against this Notre Dame defense, and without LJ Martin, that won’t be enough for them to stay in the game for four quarters.

I expect the game to stay relatively close into the second half before Notre Dame pulls away and continues its streak of wins by 10 or more points. The streak sits at 16 games, a program record, and a 10-point win tonight would tie Miami’s 17 for the second-longest in college football history. A late pick-six by Notre Dame ends up blowing it wide open.

Notre Dame 38, BYU 17