What Though the Odds: Notre Dame Football Betting Info for the Michigan State Game

Notre Dame fried Rice to the temperature of 52-0 inside Notre Dame Stadium last weekend. It only took about 14 seconds for the deep fryer to be hot enough for patrons to know the game was over. One onlooker was Michigan State head coach Pat Fitzgerald.

“They’re Freakazoids,” Michigan State head coach Pat Fitzgerald described Notre Dame’s players after film review. “(Leonard) Moore is going to be the first pick overall. It doesn’t take long to see (Adon) Shuler. The game was over on that hit against Rice. He knocked that dude’s lips off.”

Fitzgerald was referring to what took place during the second offensive play of the game for Rice. On second down, Owls quarterback Jacurri Brown handed the ball to running back Davis Lane, only for Lane to be discombobulated via a hit from Shuler, which caused Lane to fumble the ball. Notre Dame defensive end Boubacar Traore scooped up the loose ball and returned it 24 yards for an Irish touchdown. That was Lane’s only carry of the game, and he was subsequently assisted off the field by Rice’s medical staff.

As Fitzgerald pointed out, Notre Dame stayed the course, dominating Rice for the remainder of the game. Not only did the Irish defense score a touchdown as well as pitch a shutout, but the Notre Dame offense evoked its will as well, primarily through the passing game.

Irish quarterback CJ Carr threw three first-half touchdowns and added a fourth during Notre Dame’s first possession of the third quarter. The Heisman hopeful completed 16 of 20 passes for 253 yards in less than three quarters, and three of those incompletions were due to blatant dropped passes by his intended receivers.

While Carr’s stellar performance stole the show, it didn’t hide a running back room that critics are beginning to question. Notre Dame used five different running backs while carrying the ball 32 times for 118 yards (3.7 YPC) and two touchdowns. Although the running backs always seemed to be moving forward during their carries, there were only two runs of 15 yards or more, and both went for 15 yards. The lack of explosion came against a much weaker opponent in Rice, so some folks are beginning to wonder whether that will be sufficient against the likes of BYU and Miami.

Moreover, will it be enough to withstand this weekend’s opponent, which will bring the nation’s 40th-ranked rush defense to South Bend—a team that’s allowing just 89 rushing yards per game.

Next Up: Michigan State

Key Injuries

Notre Dame
WR Quincy Porter (knee), OL Charles Jagusah (arm), OL Matty Austine (foot), Chris Terek (knee), DL Christopher Burgess Jr. (tibia), DL Tiki Hola (knee), LB Ko’o Kia (shoulder), DB Chaz Smith (wrist), S Brauntae Johnson (foot), and DL Jason Onye (ankle) are out.

Michigan State
LB Jordan Hall (arm) is questionable.

Betting Trends:

• Notre Dame is 49-29-1 all-time against Michigan State.
• Michigan State is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games.
• Notre Dame is 6-2 ATS in its last eight home games.
• First quarter under is 3-2 in Michigan State’s last five away games.
• Notre Dame is 2-0 ATS in 2026.

Line, Total, and the Matchup

Line (Point Spread) and Total (Over/Under)

Michigan State (2-0) (1-1 ATS) at #3 Notre Dame (2-0) (2-0 ATS)

The month of September has required some adjusting for head coach Marcus Freeman, as it featured head-scratching losses to Marshall, Northern Illinois, and Stanford. He’s clearly adjusted in 2026, as his team is currently 2-0, fresh off a 52-0 win over Rice from a week ago. Moreover, the lopsided win added to Notre Dame’s margin of victory versus unranked AP teams. In fact, the Irish head coach has the highest average margin of victory over such teams of any head coach in Notre Dame history. Notre Dame will be hosting another unranked opponent on Saturday night when Michigan State visits South Bend.

The Spartans aren’t just another opponent, however. Before the rivalry game went idle following their 2017 meeting, these two teams had faced off 78 times prior, dating back to 1897. In fact, Notre Dame has played Michigan State nearly twice as many times as it has played Michigan. The Spartans will not be the only familiar face coming to town, because Michigan State head coach Pat Fitzgerald also made history against the Irish prior to his tenure in East Lansing.

Fitzgerald visited Notre Dame Stadium while serving as a linebacker for the Northwestern Wildcats in 1995. His team entered the game as 28-point underdogs and exited with a 17-15 victory over then-No. 9 Notre Dame. To add insult to injury, Fitzgerald returned to Notre Dame Stadium in 2014, but in the form of head coach for his alma mater. He led the unranked Wildcats to a 43-40 win over then-18th-ranked Notre Dame.

Although Fitzgerald was fortunate enough to find success against Notre Dame in his past, he realizes finding it in the present is a tall task.

“(Freeman’s) team is just complete,” Fitzgerald admitted. “There’s not one place you look at on the tape that you see anything as far as an issue that they have, looking at it from the outside looking in. They’re a complete team. It’s going to take our best preparation, our best focus, our best execution to give ourselves a chance to compete.”

Where Michigan State Can Compete

This is Fitzgerald’s first season as head coach at Michigan State, and he already has his team executing at a high level after its first two games. The Spartans’ defense is ranked 24th in total defense and 40th in rushing defense, allowing just 89 rush yards per game.

Coincidentally, Michigan State’s rushing offense is also ranked 40th in the nation, averaging 204 yards per game. The running back unit is featured by UConn transfer Cam Edwards. Last weekend against Eastern Michigan, he carried the ball 21 times for 152 yards. Edwards is ranked seventh in the nation with 250 total rushing yards.

He’ll be facing much stiffer competition on Saturday night, as the Irish are currently ranked 14th against the run, allowing 65.5 rushing yards per game. During Week 1, the Irish faced a Wisconsin team that prided itself on being able to run the ball and limited the Badgers to 67 yards on the ground. It should be noted that the Wisconsin offense included a dual-threat quarterback who had over 1,000 rushing yards a year ago.

Not only Edwards, but Michigan State quarterback Alessio Milivojevic could also be in trouble because he’ll be protected by an offensive line that’s surrendered five sacks in two games. In contrast, Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr was sacked once against Wisconsin and was barely breathed on against Rice. Pass protection for Notre Dame’s offense hasn’t been the problem, though. Instead, the run game appears to be the unsolved mystery, as the Irish have remained inconsistent running the ball in each of their first two games.

Michigan State will enter Saturday night with a top-50 rushing defense, as the Spartans are currently ranked 39th, allowing just 89 rushing yards per game. They’ll be facing a Notre Dame running back unit that has performed at an underwhelming rate compared to last season. The Irish find themselves ranked 116th in rushing offense, averaging 114.5 yards per game.

The Pick

Notre Dame is a consensus 29.5-point favorite, though point spreads range from 29 to 30 depending on the book. The total opened at 51.5 and climbed to 52 despite a high chance of rain in Saturday night’s forecast. That move is more understandable given that Michigan State’s defense has allowed five explosive passing plays through two games, covering 20, 20, 60, 31, and 21 yards.

Asking the Irish to win by 30 points against an old rival might be asking for perfection. Coach Fitzgerald’s resume illustrates that he is 2-0 against Notre Dame, winning not only as a player but also as a coach. Understanding what it takes to win inside Notre Dame Stadium should keep his team within 30 points, but his experience with Northwestern will not be enough to keep his record against Notre Dame unblemished. Pick: Michigan State +29.5

Behind Enemy Lines Week 3

Eastern Michigan (1-2) (1-2 ATS) at Wisconsin (1-1) (0-2 ATS)

Eastern Michigan added its second loss of the season last week at Michigan State, 35-7. Wisconsin rebounded nicely against lowly Western Illinois, 36-9. The total has gone under in Eastern Michigan’s last three games. The total went under in Wisconsin’s last home game. The Badgers are sitting at -24.5 with a total of 45.5. Pick: Under 45.5

Western Michigan (1-1) (2-0 ATS) at Rice (1-1) (1-1 ATS)

Western Michigan demolished Monmouth, 49-14. Rice was shut out by Notre Dame, 52-0. Western Michigan is 2-0 against the spread so far on the season, while Rice is 1-1 ATS, with one cover coming against Houston-Christian. WMU opened at -10.5 before sliding to -9.5. The total fell a whopping six points to 43.5. Pick: Western Michigan -9.5

Purdue (1-1) (1-1 ATS) at UCLA (2-0) (2-0 ATS)

The Boilermakers lost by two points in overtime to Wake Forest, 38-36. UCLA maintained state bragging rights over San Diego State, 28-10. Purdue is 1-1 ATS this season, while UCLA is 2-0 ATS, but both of UCLA’s games were much closer than the final score suggests. UCLA opened at -12.5 before the spread climbed to -14. The total is resting at 53.5. Pick: Purdue +14

North Carolina (2-0) (1-1 ATS) at Clemson (1-1) (0-2 ATS)

Each team sustained comfortable wins last week, as UNC defeated East Tennessee State, 35-3, and Clemson defeated Georgia Southern, 22-7. Both programs are 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games. UNC looks more improved this season; however, neither team’s offense has impressed. The opening line listed Clemson as -9.5, but now the Tigers are -3.5 with a total of 43.5. Pick: Under 43.5

Stanford (1-1) (1-1 ATS) at Duke (2-0) (2-0 ATS)

Stanford took last weekend off to prepare for this week’s cross-country journey to Duke. Meanwhile, Duke outscored Illinois 10-3 in the second half to win, 31-17. The over is 4-0 following a game in which Stanford allowed 40 points or more. Duke opened at -11.5 before dropping to -9.5. The total is trending upward at 50.5. Pick: Over 50 (buy the .5 point)

#11 BYU (2-0) (2-0 ATS) at Colorado State (2-0) (2-0 ATS)

BYU kept Arizona scoreless in the second half last week, sealing a 28-17 victory. In comparison, Colorado State wrecked Southern Utah 58-24. Both teams enter this week 2-0 straight up (SU) and ATS, with BYU facing the toughest opponent thus far in Arizona. Are the Cougars already looking ahead to their game at TCU? BYU opened at -20.5 but now finds itself a 17.5-point road favorite. The total climbed one point to 52.5. Pick: Colorado State +17.5

Navy (1-1) (0-2 ATS) – Bye

The Midshipmen scored 16 unanswered points in the second half, but it wasn’t enough, as Florida Atlantic handed them their first loss, 38-30. Navy surrendered 386 yards passing, including five passing touchdowns. Next game: at UAB

#5 Miami (2-0) (2-0 ATS) at Wake Forest (2-0) (0-2 ATS)

The Hurricanes may enter this week’s game a little groggy after the 77-7 nap they took against Florida A&M last Thursday. The Demon Deacons may be fatigued as well following their 38-36 overtime win at Purdue. Two of college football’s most popular transfer portal quarterbacks face off on Friday night in Dariah Mensah for Miami and Gio Lopez for Wake Forest. Talent surrounding the pop stars will likely be the difference. The Hurricanes opened at -19.5 before moving to -20.5. The total is firm at 55.5 across the board. Pick: Over 55 (buy the .5 point)

Maine (1-2) (0-2 ATS) at Boston College (1-1) (1-1 ATS)

Boston College secured its first win of the season over Rutgers, 28-21. This week the Eagles will likely add another win to their resume over lowly Maine. Line N/A. Next game: Virginia Tech

#16 SMU (2-0) (1-0-1 ATS) at #23 Louisville (1-1) (2-0 ATS)

SMU allowed 10 fourth-quarter points in its 56-10 spanking of UC Davis. Louisville’s reserves allowed just three second-half points in their jamboree against Villanova. The Mustangs defeated the Cardinals 38-6 last November, yet Louisville enters this game -1.5 with a total of 59.5. Pick: Louisville -1.5

Syracuse (1-1) (1-1 ATS) at Pittsburgh (2-0) (1-1 ATS)

The Orange outgained California 437 to 249 in total offense but still managed to lose the game, 21-18. Three interceptions and two missed field goals aided in the defeat. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh held UCF to 206 yards of total offense, which led them to their second win of the season, 12-7. The Panthers defeated Syracuse last October 30-13. That was without Orange quarterback Steve Angeli. The current line has Pittsburgh -10.5 because of it, with a total of 51.5. Pick: Syracuse +10.5

*Notre Dame 2026 opponents are listed in bold