Revisiting Our Notre Dame Football Pre-Season Predictions

Every year I throw out some over/under predictions on the upcoming season and revisit them at the end of the year. Last year I hit on 39% of my prognostications, which I considered to be pretty good, so I’m curious to see how this season goes. There is the little wrinkle of the offense completely changing through four games with the quarterback change, but that’s the way it goes with these things. Let’s just get right into it.

Total rushing attempts for Brandon Wimbush– 150.5 (my prediction= over) Chip Long continues to talk about Notre Dame being a running team, and Wimbush is probably the best runner they have. I think all of the talk about Wimbush as a passer is missing it. He’s going to run, a lot, and not just as a scrambler. He finished with 141 attempts last season, he’ll top that this year.

Result: 68

Obviously with Wimbush being replaced by Book following week three against Vanderbilt, this had no chance to hit. It is interesting though that if you take his four starts and project his carries per game over an entire season, it comes out to 151.2 on the season. So it may have been right on the number! Alas, I cannot count it.

Total carries for Jafar Armstrong– 99.5 (over) Interestingly, I think Armstrong’s role in the offense is more secure than either Tony Jones Jr. or Dexter Williams. He has a skill set that lends itself to all types of games, which isn’t so for Jones Jr. and Williams. There is a good chance he is the top ball carrier as a running back at the end of the year.

Result: 71

His knee injury did not help here, he missed three straight games in the middle of the season, but even projecting his carries per game, that comes out to ~95. It is a little baffling why he got so little work the last three weeks, even given the ankle injury he apparently incurred prior to Northwestern. He was suited and received work, but not nearly the volume that could have been expected. Will be interesting to watch how much work he gets in the playoffs.

Leading receiver total receptions– 49.5 (under) I don’t think anyone gets there this season, although I think three players could get into the 40’s (Claypool, Boykin, Kmet). I just don’t think there will be the volume of passes for any one player to enough targets. To get 50 receptions, you’d have to be right around 100 targets. That’s a lot.

Result: Miles Boykin 54

Boykin beat the mark by five receptions (and I was clearly way too high on Kmet), but overall the analysis was sound. Claypool finished with 48 receptions and Finke with 47. No way they would have gotten there had Book not been inserted though.

Total touchdowns for the tight ends– 4.5 (over) The last two seasons the Notre Dame tight ends have finished with four combined touchdowns, so it makes sense to set the line there. I think Kmet gets there by himself, with Mack providing a couple to reach the number comfortably. Again, Chip Long loves playing tight ends, and they are such natural targets in the middle of the field, especially around the red zone.

Result: 6

This one hit for me, but not with the ease I predicted, with Mack hauling in three touchdowns, Weisher two, Brock Wright one. Funny enough the guy who I thought would reach the mark by himself caught none. Go figure.

Team rushing yards– 2,499.5 (under) The 2012 team rushed for just under 2,500 yards and I think this seasons unit will do the same. Not enough explosiveness at running back to get there. Incidentally, I think the 2012 offense is a good model for what Notre Dame is trying to be this season.

Result: 2,286

The insertion of Williams mitigated the loss of Wimbush, but this team wasn’t consistent enough to get over the 2,500 yard mark.