Frankie V’s Prediction: Notre Dame Looks to Keep Rolling Against Tricky NC State Defense

Notre Dame returns to action Saturday riding a three-game winning streak that’s featured steady progress in every phase. Marcus Freeman’s team has found rhythm behind freshman quarterback CJ Carr and a defense that’s quietly started to resemble last year’s unit that carried Notre Dame through the playoffs and onto the doorstep of a national championship.

But this week’s opponent, NC State, presents a real challenge even if the point spread doesn’t suggest so. NC State has a veteran and is a schematically sound team that loves to create confusion with its 3-3-5 defense and balanced offense. It’s the kind of matchup that tests focus more than flash.

So what should worry Irish fans heading into Saturday — and what shouldn’t? Let’s break it down.

What Worries Me This Week

1. Pass Protection vs. NC State’s 3-3-5 Front

Notre Dame’s pass protection has been solid overall but far from airtight. Through five games, the Irish have allowed seven sacks for 59 yards — respectable but still a concern when facing a unique defensive front. NC State, meanwhile, thrives on pressure through disguise. The Wolfpack defense has generated nine sacks in six games, led by Sabastian Harsh (2.5) and Tra Thomas (1.5), and consistently uses delayed blitzes from linebackers and safeties. Expect them to test Notre Dame’s communication up front early and often.

2. Red-Zone Efficiency

Notre Dame’s offense ranks among the nation’s most balanced, averaging 461.6 total yards per game. But finishing drives has been inconsistent. Even in last week’s win over Boise State, the Irish came away empty on a couple of promising possessions.

That can’t happen against a Wolfpack defense that has been excellent inside the 20. Opponents have scored touchdowns on just 61% of red-zone trips this season. Settling for field goals — even with Noah Burnette expected back (3-for-3 on field goals this year) — keeps a dangerous offense within range.

3. Slot and Tight End Coverage

With Devonta Smith out and Leonard Moore back to full strength, Notre Dame’s secondary is mostly intact but thinner at nickel and safety. That’s an issue against an NC State passing attack built around intermediate routes.

Quarterback CJ Bailey has been ultra-efficient, completing 74.6% of his passes for 1,660 yards, 13 touchdowns, and a 168.8 rating. His favorite safety valve, tight end Justin Joly, leads the team with 28 catches for 256 yards and three touchdowns. Expect defensive coordinator Chris Ash to mix in more bracket coverages to avoid letting Bailey carve up the middle of the field.

What Doesn’t Worry Me This Week

1. CJ Carr’s Poise and Ball Security

Freshman or not, CJ Carr has looked like a veteran. Through five games, he’s 86-of-127 (67.7%) for 1,280 yards, 11 touchdowns, and just two interceptions. Even with those seven sacks allowed, Carr has shown a calm pocket presence and quick processing that have prevented negative plays from spiraling.

He’ll face a defense with just five interceptions in six games — not exactly a takeaway machine. If he continues spreading the ball between Jordan Faison, Malachi Fields, Will Pauling, and Eli Raridon, Notre Dame’s offense should stay on schedule.

2. The Ground Game’s Consistency

Notre Dame’s run game remains the steady backbone of its offense. The Irish are averaging 178.6 rushing yards per game behind the one-two punch of Jeremiyah Love (444 yards, 6 TDs) and Jadarian Price (356 yards, 7 TDs).

NC State’s defense allows 131.8 yards per game on the ground and hasn’t faced a line this physical. Expect the Irish to lean on the run to keep the Wolfpack’s exotic blitz packages off balance.

3. Defensive Momentum Under Chris Ash

Notre Dame’s defense has become quietly efficient over the last two games after not putting up much resistance the first three games. Through five games, the Irish have recorded 11 sacks, 17 tackles for loss, and 8 interceptions. Boubacar Traore leads the charge with 3.5 sacks, while Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa and Jaylen Sneed have combined for another 2.5.

The Wolfpack offense has been efficient but can be forced into mistakes; Bailey has thrown four interceptions on the year, and NC State has also lost two fumbles. Ash’s defense has shown a knack for capitalizing on those miscues.

Players to Watch

• CJ Carr – QB: Freshman phenom (67.7%, 1,280 yards, 11 TDs, 2 INTs). His poise vs. NC State’s 3-3-5 pressure will set the tone.
• Jeremiyah Love – RB: Leads the Irish with 444 rushing yards and six TDs. Expect Notre Dame to lean on him early against a front allowing 132 yards per game.
• Will Pauling – WR: His stats don’t jump off the page, but it looked like he and Carr were really starting to develop a connection against Boise State. At some point soon a breakout performance feels likely.
• Eli Raridon – TE: Third on the team in receiving (233 yards). Could be a key red-zone target vs. Wolfpack linebackers.
• Tae Johnson – S: Rising star with 19 tackles, a INT, and two breakups. His range will be critical against TE Justin Joly.
• Boubacar Traore – DE: Team leader in sacks (3.5) and TFLs (4.5). Disrupting CJ Bailey’s rhythm could flip the game.

Prediction Time

This matchup isn’t one Notre Dame can sleepwalk through despite being a three-touchdown favorite. NC State is well-coached, experienced, and capable of frustrating teams that don’t protect the football. But the Irish have too much balance on offense and the defense has been trending in the right first for the last six quarters. They won’t get tripped up at home. Expect a game that’s competitive into the second half before Notre Dame’s run game and depth take control.

Prediction: Notre Dame 42, NC State 24