Frankie V’s Prediction: Will Notre Dame Football Continue to Roll On Senior Day?

Notre Dame heads into Senior Day on a tear this year. Winners of seven in a row since the NIU debacle, the Irish are pulverizing their opponents on their way to a #8 ranking in the most recent College Football Playoff rankings. Continue winning in the fashion they are and get just a little bit of luck, and not only will the Irish be in the College Football Playoffs, but they’ll be hosting a game. Standing in their path today is 5-4 Virginia. The Cavaliers upset Pitt last weekend, but they shouldn’t offer a ton of resistance to the Irish today if Notre Dame plays their game. Let’s break it down.

What Worries Me This Week

Notre Dame trying to get too cute on offense

Virginia will likely sell out to stop the run – it’s what they’ve done this year. That will leave them susceptible to big passing plays – that’s also what they’ve done this year. I hope we don’t see the Irish get too cute on offense, though, and avoid running the ball altogether at the start of the game. We have seen that at times from Denbrock this year. Even if the running game isn’t gashing Virginia early, Notre Dame’s offensive DNA is that of a run-first team, so they need to be true to themselves and not overthink it.

There is a chance that today is the best passing day of the year for Notre Dame and Riley Leonard, but I still worry that if they come out and try to sling it all over the field, the Irish offense will get off to a very slow start. Remember, Notre Dame was up just 14-0 until the end of the first half last week, primarily thanks to one long Jadarian Price touchdown run.

Notre Dame’s interior defensive line

Notre Dame will be without Howard Cross in the middle of the defense today. While it’s unfortunate for Cross to miss Senior Day on a personal level, his loss also leaves the Irish pretty thin on the interior of the defense line. Gabriel Rubio will see a ton of action in his place this afternoon, but the Irish will also likely have to rely on some youngsters who haven’t played a ton for depth. In a perfect world, the Irish offense starts fast, builds a lead, and the Irish can rely primarily on a 3-man rotation on the interior, but outside of the Purdue game, that hasn’t happened a ton this year.

Outside of Donovan Hinish, look for Armel Mukam and Sean Sevillano to get snaps outside of garbage time this week.

What Doesn’t Worry Me This Week

Notre Dame’s pass rush

Virginia has struggled to protect the quarterback all season long. In their last two games alone, they’ve given up eight sacks. Even with some of the Irish’s injuries, Notre Dame should be able to get after Anthony Colandrea this afternoon. That pressure will likely result in some opportunities for interceptions for the Notre Dame secondary. Colandrea has thrown eight (8) interceptions on the season, with four (4) coming in the last two weeks alone.

Colandrea is a dual threat, though, so the Irish must be cautious not to be overly aggressive because he can burn you with his legs. Notre Dame has done well with dual-threat quarterbacks – and really quarterbacks of all shapes and sizes under Al Golden – though, so that shouldn’t be too much of a worry. If there’s a way for Virginia to make this game interesting, though, it would probably involve a few long Colandrea runs.

Emotions of Senior Day

Senior Day is an emotional day. There’s always the concern that emotions can get in the way, so I’ll list it here even though Marcus Freeman’s squads have been dominant on Senior Day. Notre Dame has outscored opponents 89-7 in the two Senior Days that Freeman has been the head coach – both were against mid-tier ACC opponents as well (Boston College 2022, Wake Forest 2023). The Irish have been focused and locked in since that NIU loss, so this shouldn’t be a significant concern. However, anytime you’re a 20+ favorite, finding reasons for concern is a little tough.

Players to Watch

• Kris Mitchell – If UVA sells out against the run, Mitchell will have favorable matchups. I’ve been waiting all year long for a Mitchell breakout performance. Today might finally be it.
• Beaux Collins – There will be opportunities for Collins to make some downfield plays today, just as he did against Navy and Stanford.
• Xavier Watts – In the final home game of his career, Watts is getting his hands on a turnover today. Book it.
• Mitchell Evans—The Cavaliers’ linebackers should struggle to cover Evans, who will have opportunities in the passing game today.
• Rylie Mills – He’s been an animal lately, and today is his last home game. The first breakout performance of his career was on the road at Virginia in 2021. Look for Mills to have another monster performance.
• Riley Leonard – His season-high passing yards is 229, and he’s gone over 200 just three times this season. He makes it four today and eclipses that season-high.

Prediction Time

Virginia is a solid program right now, but they shouldn’t offer too much resistance for the Irish. Notre Dame could start slow again this week since that’s unfortunately been their MO most of the season, but eventually, this one should turn into another easy win for the Irish with the bench getting emptied to get every senior in the game. I expect this to be one of the best passing games of the season for Notre Dame and for the defense to keep eating.

Notre Dame 49, Virginia 13