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What Though the Odds: Notre Dame Football Betting Info for the Boise State Game

No. 21 Notre Dame takes center stage on NBC Saturday at 3:30 PM ET, looking to cover a 20-point spread against high-scoring Boise State.

Arkansas transfer tight end Ty Washington had a lot to say about his former team heading into last weekend’s matchup with Arkansas. He showed some love to old teammates and their fans before telling folks who planned on watching the showdown exactly what to expect if things went sideways.

“They get loud,” Washington admitted. “The fanbase gets in there quick. Student section gets in there fast. But if you really shut them out quick, it’ll be done. The fanbase will be quiet. Everybody [will] go home. It’s too hot. It’s too hot at Arkansas. So everybody wants to go home if they lose.”

Washington’s forecast was spot on as Razorbacks fans were spotted in droves stampeding toward the exit turnstiles with Notre Dame leading 42–13 at halftime. The “stripe out” became an out. The same kind of sentiment could be seen among the Arkansas players. It was obvious that an offense which had ranked 15th in the nation in points per game (43.5) failed to score a point in the second half against Notre Dame’s reserve players and had given up. The Arkansas higher-ups followed suit as they fired Razorbacks head coach Sam Pittman the next day.

Therefore, full objectivity is required in evaluating Notre Dame’s 56–13 win over Arkansas. Entering the game, UHND’s matchup report stated that it would not take long to recognize if the Razorbacks players had checked out on the season following their heartbreaking loss to Memphis a week prior.

During the opening drive of the first quarter, the Irish defense was gashed again, surrendering a 14-yard run followed by a 33-yard pass. Faced with a 4th-and-3 from the Notre Dame 21-yard line, Pittman surprisingly elected to kick a field goal instead of trying for a first down. It felt like a small win for Notre Dame, but perhaps an even bigger loss of momentum for Arkansas. It was that coaching decision, along with a few drops and bad passes on the next few Arkansas possessions, that set the tone for the game. In all, it took about one and a half quarters for the Razorbacks players and fans to quit. Notre Dame went on to win the game 56–13.

Notre Dame’s pass defense limited Arkansas quarterback Taylen Green to 207 yards passing, zero touchdowns, and one interception. He finished the game with a QBR of 51.3. It was his worst performance of the season. The Razorbacks rushing attack combined for 30 carries and 158 yards. Other than a 54-yard run, their ground game was held in check. On the flip side of the ball, Notre Dame’s offense took what it wanted. In addition to their 42-point first-half scoring output, quarterback CJ Carr had nearly 300 yards passing at halftime. Even with Notre Dame playing reserve players for most of the second half, the Irish offense still finished with 641 total yards, including 431 yards through the air and 210 yards on the ground. Irish running backs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price each had rushing and receiving touchdowns. It was not only the ninth time the pair rushed for a score in the same game, but it marked the first time they had both caught and rushed for a touchdown in the same game.

The offensive output put on display against Arkansas appears to be the norm for Notre Dame, as the Irish are averaging 48.6 points per game not including the blocked punt return for a touchdown against Texas A&M during Week 2. Furthermore, Notre Dame has not punted the football in two games. Conversely, the same cannot be said for the Irish defense, as they have been inconsistent through four weeks of play. At times, they’ve been dreadful to watch. That raises the question as to whether the defensive performance against Arkansas is the new rule or just an exception to the rule due to the Razorbacks waving the proverbial white flag. That’s a question that will get answered in the Irish’s next game against Boise State—a team that has scored at least 47 points in its last three games.

Key Injuries

Notre Dame
RB Kedren Young (knee), TE Cooper Flanagan (Achilles), OL Charles Jagusah (arm) are out. TE Kevin Bauman (retired). DB Leonard Moore (ankle) and DL Donovan Hinish (shoulder) are questionable.

Boise State
DB Jaden Mickey (concussion) is day to day.

Betting Trends

  • Boise State is 5–1 SU in its last six road games.
  • The total has gone over in six of Notre Dame’s last six games.
  • Notre Dame is 13–3 ATS in its last 16 games.
  • Saturday will mark the first all-time meeting between Notre Dame and Boise State.
  • Notre Dame is 7–0 SU in its last seven games against the Mountain West Conference.

Line (Point Spread) and Total (Over/Under)

Boise State (3–1) (3–1 ATS) at No. 21 Notre Dame (2–2) (2–2 ATS)

The Notre Dame defense has shown some improvement since the second half of the Purdue game, in which they surrendered just seven points. Then last weekend the Irish defense shut down one of the most potent offenses in college football at Arkansas by limiting the Razorbacks to only 13 points. During Monday’s press conference, Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman admitted that there were changes made on the defensive side of the ball designed to simplify things that he thought would provide more clarity for his players. In turn, he thought those changes would have them playing at a higher velocity. Those changes were not only made in schematics, but also in personnel as Tae Johnson found himself as the starting safety in place of Jalen Stroman.

Johnson admitted that knowing he would be getting more playing time as the starter provided him with extra clarity going into the game because he could better prepare himself to take more snaps. Johnson added there was also another piece at practice that’s been sharpening his skills.

“Going against CJ (Carr) you have to have great technique,” Johnson stated. “You just have to be all over the play. It helps us out a lot when we go against other dynamic quarterbacks because we go against CJ every day and he can make certain throws that a lot of other quarterbacks in the country can’t make.

“So being across from CJ, even in the summer leading up to now has definitely helped me out a lot,” Johnson continued. “It’s helped me learn how to read quarterbacks while I’m in the middle of the field and just to learn what the quarterback is thinking. I talk to CJ a lot to learn what the quarterback is thinking and to understand what he is looking at because it helps us out in the back end.”

Carr has not only been an obvious difference maker at practice, but also on the field. The 354 yards he threw against Arkansas last week were the most of any Notre Dame quarterback since 2022. Two hundred ninety-four of those yards came in the first half, which were the third-most first-half passing yards in Irish history. The redshirt freshman also threw four first-half touchdowns, which tied him for second-most in program history. It should be noted that last week was just the fourth start of Carr’s college career.

Carr is currently ranked 10th in the nation in passing efficiency (181.10). He is the only quarterback ranked in the top 10 of that category to not have faced a non-Power Four team (Big Ten, ACC, SEC, Big 12) so far this year. Ironically, the opponent Carr will face this weekend has yet to face a team from a Power Four conference, which will likely not serve them well.

The Boise State Broncos will arrive in South Bend with the 56th-ranked defense (total) in the country that has allowed 338.2 yards and 24.75 points (75th) per game. Statistically speaking, the Broncos defense is stingy against the pass as they rank 37th in pass efficiency. On the surface those numbers would make a potential bettor believe that is the recipe needed to slow Carr and company down, but if that bettor zoomed in a little closer, he’d understand why bookmakers have Notre Dame coming in at –20 this week with a total of 63. In four games, Boise State has played USF, Eastern Washington, Air Force, and Appalachian State. To say Notre Dame will be a step up in competition is an understatement.

Pick: Notre Dame –20

Behind Enemy Lines Week 6

No. 2 Miami (4–0) (3–1 ATS) at No. 18 Florida State (3–1) (3–1 ATS)
Miami is 5–10 SU in its last 15 matchups against FSU. The total has gone over in five of Miami’s last seven road games. The total has gone under in 12 of FSU’s last 14 games versus Miami. The line on this game opened with the Hurricanes –7.5 before it came shooting down to –4.5, which is where it sits now. The total also slid down from 55.5 to 54 at some books. (Always buy the .5 point.) Pick: Miami –4

Mississippi State (4–1) (5–0 ATS) at No. 6 Texas A&M (4–0) (1–3 ATS)
Mississippi State is 8–4 ATS in its last 12 games against Texas A&M. Mississippi State is 2–4 SU in its last six games against Texas A&M. The total has gone over in four of Texas A&M’s last five games. Texas A&M is 0–5 ATS in its last five home games. Texas A&M stands at –14 at most books. The total dropped three points from 58.5 to 55.5. (Always buy the .5 point.) Pick: Over 55

No. 22 Illinois (4–1) (4–1 ATS) at Purdue (2–2) (2–2 ATS)
The total has gone over in six of Illinois’s last nine games. Illinois is 4–8 ATS in its last 12 games against Purdue. The total has gone under in four of Purdue’s last six games. Purdue is 2–6 ATS in its last eight home games. Illinois opened at –10, but you may find –9.5 at some books. The total has climbed from 55.5 to 57. Pick: Under 57

Arkansas (2–3) (1–4 ATS) – Bye
The Razorbacks quit on their coach and on each other during last week’s 56–13 blowout loss to Notre Dame. The Irish were up 42–13 at halftime as most of the Arkansas fans were seen exiting the stadium. Next game: at No. 15 Tennessee

Campbell (1–4) (0–0 ATS) at NC State (3–2) (2–3 ATS)
NC State suffered its first loss of the season last week to Virginia Tech. The Wolfpack’s dreadful defense allowed over 400 yards of total offense to the Hokies in the 23–21 defeat. Line N/A. Next game: at Notre Dame

USC (4–1) (2–3 ATS) – Bye
USC lost in a shootout to Illinois last week, 34–32. The Trojans offense tallied 490 total yards, but their defense allowed 502 total yards to the Illini. Next game: No. 20 Michigan

Boston College (1–3) (2–2 ATS) at Pittsburgh (2–2) (2–2 ATS)
Boston College is 7–3 ATS in its last 10 games. The total has gone under in five of Boston College’s last six games at Pittsburgh. The total has gone over in five of Pittsburgh’s last six games. Pittsburgh is 10–3 ATS in its last 13 home games. Pittsburgh is –6.5 across the board. The total rose two points to 58.5. (Always buy the .5 point.) Pick: Pittsburgh –6

Air Force (1–3) (1–3 ATS) at Navy (4–0) (2–2 ATS)
Air Force is 6–3 ATS in its last nine games. Air Force is 4–1 SU in its last five matchups against Navy. Navy is 5–2 ATS in its last seven games. The total has gone under in 14 of Navy’s last 20 games versus Air Force. Navy is trending upward to –11.5 with a total of 50. Pick: Over 50

Syracuse (3–2) (2–2–1 ATS) at SMU (2–2) (0–4 ATS)
The total has gone over in six of Syracuse’s last eight games. Syracuse is 4–2 ATS in its last six games against the ACC. SMU is 0–6 ATS in its last six games. The total has gone under in four of SMU’s last five games. The line on this one has climbed three points to where it sits now with SMU –17.5. The total is firm at 58.5. (Always buy the .5 point.) Pick: Under 59

Stanford (2–3) (2–3 ATS) – Bye
San Jose State tallied 525 yards of total offense to Stanford’s 481 yards, but it wasn’t enough as the Cardinal scored with thirty seconds remaining to win its second game of the season, 30–29. Next game: at SMU

Notre Dame 2025 opponents are listed in bold.

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