Frankie V’s Prediction: Notre Dame Football’s Passing Game Takes Flight Against the Owls

Notre Dame football returns to Notre Dame Stadium for its 2026 home opener, coming off the heels of a 41-13 win over Wisconsin Sunday night. The Irish host the Rice Owls and are a more than six-touchdown favorite over the overmatched Owls. The game shouldn’t be close and should be more about Notre Dame working on some of the issues they showed Sunday night, but we’ve also seen home openers and second games of the season give Marcus Freeman’s teams trouble in the past. Will this be a tune-up game, or will those second-game woes come back and bother the Irish?

What worries me this week

The short week

There shouldn’t be a lot to worry about this week, but of the things that there are to worry about, the short week is genuinely one, because college teams aren’t used to short weeks the way NFL teams are. Notre Dame played Sunday night at Lambeau and is turning around to play Saturday afternoon in Notre Dame Stadium. Marcus Freeman made mention that they did alter practice this week to account for that, but practice is one thing. The game itself is another.

It shouldn’t be a major concern for Notre Dame, but it is possible that we see another slow start, which is something we’ve seen from the Irish before, most recently on Sunday night when Notre Dame led by just three at halftime. It shouldn’t linger into the second half, because Notre Dame is vastly more talented up and down the roster, but it is something to watch for early on.

Rice’s triple option offense

Notre Dame is no stranger to the option. The Irish face it every year against Navy, and sometimes twice a year when Army is on the schedule as well. Rice runs an option attack that is a little bit different from what Notre Dame sees from Navy on a yearly basis. The Owls run their option out of the shotgun more often than Navy does, and they use a lot of pre-snap motion, which could create some issues for the Irish defense.

Freeman mentioned on Thursday that edge players Boubacar Traore and Bryce Young will be playing more than they have against the option in the past. He stressed that eye discipline would be critical for Notre Dame in slowing down Rice’s attack. The Owls ran for over 400 yards last week, albeit against some pretty weak competition. Over the course of the full game, this shouldn’t be a major concern.

Working in Notre Dame’s favor as well is Rice’s top running back, Quinton Jackson, being out for this game.

The second-game woes getting in Notre Dame’s heads

There’s no escaping the problems Notre Dame has had in the second game of the season under Marcus Freeman. In his debut season they lost an embarrassing game to Marshall. In 2024 they lost an equally embarrassing game to Northern Illinois. Then last year they lost the thriller to Texas A&M in a game in which the defense simply couldn’t stop a pretty mediocre offense.

Rice is not on the same level as even Marshall or Northern Illinois, so it shouldn’t be a major issue, but Freeman mentioned the second game throughout the week, so it’s clearly on his mind. If it’s on his mind, it could be on his players’ minds, and if it’s on his players’ minds, that could linger into the game.

Much like the other two concerns, this is something that could impact the game early and start to play on the team psychologically if they get that “oh no, not again” feeling. I am not overly concerned with it, but it is something to watch.

What doesn’t worry me this week

Notre Dame’s offensive line having issues again

The Irish offensive line took a while to get going against Wisconsin, but once Sullivan Absher was inserted into the lineup in the second half, things started to solidify and the Irish ground game started to move the ball. I expect Absher to see the field again this week even though Freeman was not committal about who would start when asked about it.

Rice turned over a lot of its defense from last year to this year, and the unit was pretty bad to begin with. Notre Dame has a massive advantage in terms of size and should be able to push Rice around and run the ball very well early on.

Look for all of Notre Dame’s backs, Aneyas Williams, Nolan James Jr., and Kedren Young, to have success running the ball early in this game when given the opportunity.

The Irish passing game

The main issue with the Notre Dame offense on Sunday night, despite scoring 41 points, was that the passing game lacked any sort of verticality. Almost the entirety of it was built off underneath routes to running backs or yards after catch from wide receivers. Wisconsin played deep zone all game and Notre Dame took what the Badger defense gave it.

That’s led to some talk throughout the week that Notre Dame doesn’t have an explosive passing game and won’t be able to play with some of the other elite teams in the country. I think that was more of a Week 1 game plan, knowing how Wisconsin was going to try to contain the Irish offense, and I expect CJ Carr to have a much better game against Rice.

The only wide receiver who really impacted the opener was Jordan Faison, and I expect to see more receivers get into the mix Saturday. Specifically, I think Jaden Greathouse will get more involved, as will Mylan Graham, the Ohio State transfer. It also wouldn’t surprise me at all to see Micah Gilbert get a deep shot called to him early on to stress a Rice defense that is going to have a hard time containing anything Notre Dame does offensively.

Notre Dame should really be able to do whatever it wants against this Rice defense. The Owls were pretty bad last year and it doesn’t look like they will be much better this year, even though they only gave up three points last week, given the level of competition they played. If Notre Dame struggles at all to move the ball, then maybe there is something to worry about with this offense, but I don’t think that’s going to be the case.

If anything, the final numbers might not look as impressive as fans want, just because a triple-option team can run the clock and limit possessions. That could make the final score and the box score look worse than the performance truly was.

Players to watch

Luke Talich. With Brauntae Johnson out for a couple of weeks, Talich will get the start and be relied upon heavily. He would have played a lot anyway, but now his responsibility increases even more, and he should be more than up to the task.

Sullivan Absher. It would be a surprise to me if Absher didn’t start, but we’ve already seen Joe Rudolph and Mike Denbrock have a short hook. If the offensive line doesn’t gel immediately, his first-half performance will be worth watching closely.

Nolan James Jr. He was a huge asset in the passing game on Sunday night, and I expect Notre Dame to keep getting him the ball in a number of ways, even if Aneyas Williams remains RB1 in this offense.

Francis Brewu and Tionne Gray. Most of Notre Dame’s roster has plenty of experience against the option. Brewu and Gray weren’t with Notre Dame last year, so this will be a bit of a new experience for them.

Spencer Porath. Hopefully Notre Dame doesn’t need its kicker very much, but if it does, it’ll be interesting to see whether he can carry over his success from the Wisconsin game. That would tell us whether Notre Dame finally has a reliable kicker after a season in which it had anything but.

Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa. Freeman said on Thursday that the star linebacker should be available, but expect limited reps as Notre Dame ramps him back up from his knee injury.

Jaiden Ausberry. Notre Dame will lean heavily on players with experience against the option, and Ausberry is one of them, along with Jaylen Sneed. Look for both to play a lot of football.

Prediction time

Notre Dame is a more than six-touchdown favorite for a reason. Rice is not a very good football team and Notre Dame is. While the Irish have struggled in the second game of the season under Freeman, I don’t expect that to be a major problem Saturday afternoon.

Whether they cover the 45-or-so-point spread, depending on where it lands by kickoff, is another question. Option teams can bleed the clock and limit possessions, and every unsuccessful Notre Dame drive can limit what the final score looks like. That said, I don’t expect Notre Dame to struggle very much, and I expect the Irish to win comfortably, though just under the current number.

Notre Dame 52, Rice 10.