Frankie V’s Prediction: Notre Dame Looks to Tune Up Against In-state Rival Purdue

Notre Dame has its first true road test of the season and won’t have to leave the state of Indiana for it, facing longtime rival Purdue at Ross-Ade Stadium with the Shillelagh Trophy on the line. The third-ranked Irish enter as heavy favorites for the fourth week in a row, laying 27.5 points, in a game that should be more about working on the parts of the Irish game that aren’t clicking yet than a real test. Notre Dame has won 10 straight in the series, and Marcus Freeman has a chance to get through September unbeaten for the first time as a head coach.

What doesn’t worry me this week

CJ Carr starting a new touchdown streak
Carr had thrown a touchdown in every game he ever started before last weekend. He will bounce back this weekend in a big way. He still hasn’t thrown an interception this season, and he gets a Purdue defense that just gave up 52 points to UCLA. If Denbrock lets Carr cook, he will have a monster afternoon. So far this season, though, Denbrock has resisted fully airing it out in favor of working on the ground game.

Spencer Porath bouncing back
Porath missed a very makeable field goal last weekend against Michigan State. He returns to his former program this weekend, and if called on, he bounces back from the miss. Hopefully Notre Dame will only need him for extra points.

Notre Dame looking flat
The Irish have looked flat in the first half of two of their three games this year. In each of the last two seasons, Purdue has been a “get right” game for Notre Dame. In 2024 the Irish went to West Lafayette a week after the Northern Illinois loss and won 66-7. Last year they were 0-2 when Purdue came to South Bend and put up 56. That should happen again tomorrow. The Boilers are playing better football under Barry Odom, but that defense is not the unit that slows down this offense.

What worries me this week

A big play from the Purdue passing game
This is the first real passing attack Notre Dame has seen. Ryan Browne is completing 73% of his passes, averaging 341 yards a game, and ranks second in the country in passing yards per game. Notre Dame is down to its third safety with both Tae Johnson and Luke Talich out. Joey O’Brien gets the start and was a 5-star recruit for a reason, but Purdue would be wise to test him early. O’Brien has played a little already, but there is always a chance a true freshman gets taken advantage of. There is also a chance he records an interception just like Kyle Hamilton did in his first home game as a true freshman. Still, it’s something to watch.

Purdue runs about 72 plays a game. More snaps means more chances to find O’Brien and more time on the field for a secondary that is already thin. Notre Dame’s defense has allowed just 193 yards a game, but that number was built against offenses that didn’t throw like this one.

The Notre Dame rushing game
Notre Dame and Arkansas are the only Power-4 teams without a run of 20 yards or longer this season. Did the Irish find something against Michigan State, or did the Spartans just wear down? We’ll know soon enough. If Notre Dame can’t run on this Purdue defense, we will be well into real concern. Nolan James Jr. showed a lot of promise topping 100 yards last week, and Mike Denbrock will be looking to build on it.

Players to Watch

• Aneyas Williams – He and James have nearly identical workloads so far (38 and 39 carries). If James gets the start, it’ll be interesting to see how Williams responds.
• Joey O’Brien – I feel like he’ll have one moment that shows why he was a 5-star and another that reminds us he’s a true freshman.
• Micah Gilbert – He leads the team with 251 receiving yards on 13 catches. Was last week an outlier, or is Gilbert developing into Carr’s top target?
• James Flanigan – The tight end position has been quiet since Week 1. It would be nice to see Notre Dame get it involved more.
• Kingston Viliamu-Asa – He continues to ramp up but has made big plays in each game. Only a matter of time before he starts stacking highlight-reel plays.
• Mylan Graham – Notre Dame hasn’t really gotten him going yet. Perhaps this is the week they dial a few up for him.

Prediction Time

The offense didn’t look its best against Michigan State, but I expect it to bounce back in a big way. Carr throws for four touchdowns, three more come on the ground, and Porath adds a long field goal. Browne is one of the most productive passers in the country, and for as good as the Irish defense is, he’ll take advantage of the depleted secondary at points.

Notre Dame 52, Purdue 16