Frankie V’s Prediction: All Eyes on C.J. Carr as Notre Dame Opens at Miami

The long off-season has finally come to an end. In a few short hours, Notre Dame kicks off its 2025 season in the heat and humidity of Miami against the 10th-ranked Hurricanes, renewing a rivalry that has been somewhat contentious at times. The Irish are looking to prove to the college football world that their run to the national championship game is the new norm for the program, while the Hurricanes are trying to return to national prominence themselves after two decades of toiling in mediocrity before Mario Cristobal led them to a 10-3 season a year ago.

It’s a new era for Notre Dame football with sophomore CJ Carr making his first career start. The Hurricanes will also be breaking in a new quarterback, although transfer Carson Beck brings extensive experience from Georgia. It’s a heavyweight opener, and one that will immediately tell us how ready the Irish, making the fifth straight season-opener away from Notre Dame Stadium, are to reload after last year’s run to the national title game.

What Worries Me This Week

C.J. Carr’s first start: As talented as he is, this is not the most ideal stage for his debut. Road game, primetime, stout defensive line across from him — not exactly an easing-in moment. Carr spoke earlier this week about knowing what the environment will be like tonight. Notre Dame fans still have nightmares about what happened to Brandon Wimbush and Ian Book in this same stadium in 2017, though. Carr doesn’t need to be perfect, but needs to avoid making the big freshman mistake. And that is my biggest. He is going to make mistakes this year and almost certainly tonight. It’s what you have to live with starting a young, home-grown quarterback – look at Texas and Arch Manning yesterday.

The environment in Hard Rock Stadium: If Notre Dame doesn’t do something early to take some wind out of the stadium, that place can get electric. It can also become relatively quiet when things don’t go well early on, too. We saw in 2017 what happens when it all goes right for the home team – the place transforms into one of the toughest places to play in all of college football. Notre Dame fans are still haunted by Wimbush missing Equanimeous St. Brown for an early long touchdown that night. Everything went so badly that night, it probably wouldn’t have mattered, but it at least would have let out some air from the stadium that night. This Notre Dame team walked into Kyle Field last year and weathered the storm to walk out wth a victory, so they are certainly capable of doing the same tonight, but it’s still one of the biggest concerns walking in. Notre Dame’s leaders spoke at length about playing in this environment earlier this week, so they know what they are walking into. Talking about it is a lot different than playing in it, though.

Miami stacking the box: Everyone knows Notre Dame, slight favorites coming into the game, wants to lean on its run game with Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price. Miami will load up and dare Carr to beat them over the top. It’s football 101. They aren’t going to just let Notre Dame run the ball, so it could be very slow going for the Irish offense early on. It wouldn’t surprise me if the first quarter is a slog. In fact, I’m expecting it to be. Notre Dame’s offensive line returns a ton of experience and talent, but at some point the math will math in terms of the number of Miami defenders they have to block. Denbrock has shown that he will stick with the run even, and he will need to do that again tonight.

Miami’s defensive front: Rueben Bain Jr. is a future first-rounder, and he’s capable of wrecking drives by himself. Notre Dame’s tackles are proven, but Bain is the best pass rusher they’ll see all year. When the Irish do drop back to pass, the line will need to keep Carr’s jersey as clean as possible – and with the Irish wearing white, it will be easy to tell how they are doing in that department.

What Doesn’t Worry Me This Week

Big plays from the Miami offense: Carson Beck is talented and can sling the deep ball, but Miami’s receiving corps has been reworked this offseason, and they lack a receiver that strikes fear into the hearts of a secondary – at least for now. By the end of the season, that might be different after some of the Miami receivers get more experience, but this is not like facing the Ohio State receiving corps again for the Irish defense. Notre Dame has two new starters in the secondary, but it’s still a strength of this team.

Tackling from Miami: The Hurricanes were one of the worst tackling teams in the country last year. Plugging in six transfers on defense won’t fix that overnight. Early in the year, that’s usually a recipe for missed assignments. We saw a similar trend last year at Texas A&M, when the Aggies had a significant influx of new talent in their defense. Miami’s back seven on defense features five new starters from transfers. That is a lot of new parts all working in a new Miami system under new Miami defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman. While the heat will most certainly be on from Miami’s defensive line, all of those new moving parts could easily lead to some blown assignments and opportunities for big plays for Carr and the Irish offense.

Notre Dame’s defensive continuity: While Notre Dame also has a new defensive coordinator in Chris Ash, the Irish haven’t completely revamped Al Golden’s defensive system, which produced one of the best defenses in the country. Having a defensive-minded head coach will also ease that transition. Returning as much talent and experience as the Irish have on defense will also help. The linebacking corps is absolutely loaded, and everyone except Jack Kiser is back. Three of Notre Dame’s starters in the secondary are well seasoned. On the defensive line, the Irish lost Howard Cross and Rylie Mills, but they had already learned how to play in Mills’ absence during the College Football playoffs. The defensive line is deep and talented – maybe even deeper than a year ago.

Players to Watch

• CJ Carr – Simple to say that as Carr goes, so does Notre Dame tonight. If he struggles, Notre Dame will struggle as well. If he plays within himself and lets the game come to him, the Irish will be fine.
• Bryce Young – There has been so much buzz about Young this offseason; he should be fun to watch. He bulked up and is ready to be unleashed. Notre Dame needs him to make Beck uncomfortable in the pocket.
• Guerby Lambert – Notre Dame hasn’t officially named a starter at RG, but I’m betting on it being Lambert. Either way, the RG spot is the only spot on the line with a new starter this year, and whoever starts there will be tested.
• Christian Gray – Opposing offenses picked on Gray a lot last season, and Miami will undoubtedly do the same tonight. He needs to make a play early, or he’ll be targeted all night long.
• Adon Shuler – Shuler had a knack for making big plays in big moments last year. The Irish could use him to do the same early on tonight.
• Jaden Greathouse – Miami had problems with missed tackles last year, and could have early on this year, too. Greathouse made Penn State and Ohio State defenders look silly in the playoffs with missed tackles and broken ankles. Notre Dame needs him to do the same tonight.

Prediction Time

This is a game that worries me, maybe more than any other, all season long. On one hand, I wish it were later in the season so Carr had more experience walking in. On the other hand, if it were later in the season, the reworked Miami defense would also have more time to settle in, so both sides will likely experience some growing pains. I expect this to be an absolute slog early on and well into the second half, much like last year’s Texas A&M opener. Yards will be tough to come by for both offenses, and the team that makes the fewest mistakes will end up on top in the end. I think Carr will make just enough plays for Notre Dame to come out on top and head into the early-season bye feeling good.

Notre Dame 24, Miami 20