Heading into the Navy game, Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman made it known to anyone that had ears that he completely understood how the games taking place during November were magnified. During this month is when the playoff committee, sports writers, critics, and fans alike really begin to scrutinize schedules, compare scores, common opponents, etc.
Freeman’s fourth-down decision during the fourth quarter against Navy reminded everyone of what he said at last week’s press conference regarding the games being magnified during the month of November. With the Irish leading by 32 points and having already inserted reserve players into the game, Notre Dame elected to go for a 4th down and 3 from its own 46-yard line instead of punting. Quarterback Kenny Minchey handed the ball off to running back Aneyas Williams, who took it 54 yards to the house for a score. It was obvious at that moment that Freeman was not trying to gain any new friends or lose any old ones by running up the score.
Aside from outscoring the Midshipmen 49–10 on the scoreboard, the Irish dominated Navy in every other statistical category. Notre Dame’s offense outgained Navy’s offense in total yards 502 to 228. Navy’s starting quarterback Blake Horvath was out due to injury, but his presence may not have made much of a difference. Horvath’s backups, Braxton Woodson and Jackson Gutierrez, completed three of 10 passes for 22 yards. The Irish defense also limited the Midshipmen to 206 rushing yards on 45 carries, which was well below their season yards-per-game average (317.2).
On the defensive side of the ball, Navy did not perform any better. Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr set the tone, completing 13 of 16 passes for 218 yards and three touchdowns. Eight different Notre Dame players found their names in the box score with at least one reception, including Jeremiyah Love, who finished with 94 yards rushing and two touchdowns.
This weekend the Irish will travel to the Northeast to take on a team it’s had similar success against in recent years. However, this season could be more of a challenge. Next up: Pittsburgh.
Key Injuries
Notre Dame
RB Kedren Young (knee), OL Charles Jagusah (arm), OL Peter Jones (ankle), OL Billy Schrauth (knee), DL Gabriel Rubio (elbow), OL Ashton Craig (knee), DL Sean Sevillano (ankle), K Noah Burnette (hip) are out. TE Kevin Bauman (retired). WR Jaden Greathouse (hamstring), DL Donovan Hinish (concussion), WR Micah Gilbert (hand), and TE Cooper Flanagan (Achilles) are questionable.
Pittsburgh
LB Rasheem Biles, LB Kyle Louis, DL Blaine Spires, LB Nick Lapi are questionable.
Betting Trends
· Notre Dame is 5–2 ATS in its last seven games at Pittsburgh
· Notre Dame is 8–1 SU in its last nine games vs. the ACC
· Pittsburgh is 5–0 ATS in its last five games
· The total has gone under in four of Notre Dame’s last five games
· The total has gone over in four of Pittsburgh’s last six games vs. Notre Dame
· Matchup History: Notre Dame is 51–21–1 all-time vs. Pittsburgh
Line (Point Spread) and Total (Over/Under)
#9 Notre Dame (7–2) (5–4 ATS) at #23 Pittsburgh (7–2) (7–2 ATS)
As if this game were not already big enough for Notre Dame, it was announced earlier this week that ESPN’s “College GameDay” will be on site in Pittsburgh for the first time in twenty years. The GameDay presence alone will have eyes on this game that not necessarily would have been. However, one group that would have been watching this game regardless is the College Football Playoff Committee, as they are monitoring teams’ performances more closely as college football nears the end of the regular season.
Saturday’s game inside Acrisure Stadium will feature two teams that are still in the running for a spot in the 12-team playoffs. The Irish are currently ranked 9th and the Panthers are 23rd. Notre Dame must win its final three games, including this one, or else it will be eliminated from playoff contention. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, can afford to lose this game because it is not a conference game. If the Panthers win their remaining two ACC games and Louisville beats SMU, then they’ll earn a guaranteed spot in the playoffs.
While that’s a good luxury for Pittsburgh to have, the game against Notre Dame is certainly still significant. A win against the Irish would boost Pittsburgh’s ranking, its team’s confidence, help with recruiting, and would end Notre Dame’s four-game winning streak against them.
When asked if this weekend’s showdown against Notre Dame was a must-win game, Pittsburgh head coach Pat Narduzzi had this to say: “Absolutely not. It’s not an ACC game; glad you brought that up. I’d gladly get beat 103 … or 110–10 in that game. They can put 100 up on us as long as we win the next two.”
Although what Narduzzi said may be true, it is probably not a good message for his team to hear before they face not only their toughest opponent of the season, but also one of the best teams in the country.
The Irish are winners of their last seven games, and that’s largely due to their balance on offense. Notre Dame is ranked 15th in the country in total offense, averaging 466.1 yards per game. It’s led by redshirt freshman quarterback CJ Carr, who is ranked 3rd in passing efficiency with a rating of 176.80. It also features a pair of running backs in Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price, who are regarded by many as the best duo in the country.
Love is ranked 5th in the nation with 988 total rushing yards on the season. Love is also ranked 12th in yards per carry with 6.42, and Price is 21st with 5.98. The Irish offense will be facing the nation’s 25th ranked defense, including the 3rd ranked rushing defense that is allowing just 80.9 yards per contest.
On the flip side of the ball for the Panthers, they are led by quarterback Mason Heintschel. In five games this season, the true freshman has completed 118 of 184 passes for 1,547 yards, 12 touchdowns, and five interceptions. Heintschel is the backbone of the Panthers’ offense, as their running game is putrid. The Panthers are ranked 104th in rushing offense. Last weekend’s game against Stanford was the first time a Pittsburgh running back eclipsed 100 yards in a game all season, as Ja’Kyrian Turner finished with 127 yards.
While possessing a Diaper Dandy at quarterback, Pittsburgh has not had to run the ball successfully to win games. Airing it out has granted them their five-game winning streak, which unfortunately for Notre Dame could mean trouble, as the Irish feature the nation’s 89th ranked pass defense. That ranking is likely flawed, as it includes last week’s game against the Naval Academy — a team not known for throwing the football. The Midshipmen were without their starting quarterback, Blake Horvath, and were limited to 22 yards passing.
The passing game featured not only by Pittsburgh but also by Notre Dame is why the total on this matchup is posted at 55. The importance of this game relative to each team reaching the College Football Playoff mentioned earlier in the week by coach Narduzzi is likely why the line increased by two points to where it sits now with Notre Dame listed as 12.5-point favorites.
Last weekend’s decision by coach Freeman to not punt the ball on a 4th and 3, with a 32-point fourth-quarter lead from Notre Dame’s own 46-yard line, confirmed the month of November is strictly business for the Irish. Meanwhile, Monday’s admission from coach Narduzzi that this game does not mean as much may have been him softening the blow from the pain that is coming Pittsburgh’s way on Saturday. (Always buy the .5 point.) Pick: Notre Dame -12
Behind Enemy Lines Week 12
NC State (5–4) (4–5 ATS) at #18 Miami (7–2) (5–4 ATS)
NC State is 2–4 ATS in its last six games. The total has gone over in eight of the Wolfpack’s last nine road games. Miami is 1–4 ATS in its last five games played in November. The total has gone over in six of the Hurricanes’ last nine games vs. NC State. Miami is currently -14.5 with a total sitting firm at 55.5. (Always buy the .5 point.) Pick: Over 55
South Carolina (3–6) (4–5 ATS) at #3 Texas A&M (9–0) (5–4 ATS)
The total has gone under in eight of the Gamecocks’ last 11 games. South Carolina is 2–9 SU in its last 11 games versus the Aggies. Texas A&M is 4–1 ATS in its last five games. The total has gone over in eight of the Aggies’ last 10 games. Texas A&M is hovering around -19.5 with a total trending down to 48. Pick: Over 48
Purdue (2–8) (5–5 ATS) at #23 Washington (6–3) (4–5 ATS)
The Boilermakers are 0–16 SU in their last 16 conference games. The total has gone under in Purdue’s last five games. Washington is 2–4 ATS in its last six games. The total has gone under in four of Washington’s last five games against a Big Ten opponent. Washington is firm at -17 with a total of 53. Pick: Purdue +17
Arkansas (2–7) (3–6 ATS) at LSU (5–4) (3–6 ATS)
The Razorbacks are 2–5 ATS in their last seven games. The total has gone over in four of Arkansas’ last five conference games. LSU is 1–5 ATS in its last six games. The Tigers are 12–3 SU in their last 15 home games vs. Arkansas. LSU is -5.5 with a total of 56. Pick: Over 56
Boise State (6–3) (6–2–1 ATS) at San Diego State (7–2) (7–2 ATS)
The Broncos are 3–7 ATS in their last 10 games versus the Aztecs. The total has gone under in four of Boise’s last five road games. San Diego State is 4–1 ATS in its last five home games. The total has gone under in five of the Aztecs’ last seven games. San Diego State climbed two points to -3 while the total fell a couple of points to 41. Pick: Boise State +3
Iowa (6–3) (6–2–1 ATS) at #19 USC (7–2) (5–4 ATS)
The total has gone under in 10 of Iowa’s last 14 road games. The Hawkeyes are 6–1 ATS in their last seven games. USC is 7–1 in its last eight conference games. The total has gone under in six of USC’s last eight November games. USC is -6.5 with a total of 49.5. (Always buy the .5 point.) Pick: Over 49
#17 Georgia Tech (8–1) (6–3 ATS) at Boston College (1–9) (4–6 ATS)
The Yellow Jackets are 6–3 ATS in their last nine games. The total has gone over in eight of Georgia Tech’s last 12 games. Boston College is 2–6 ATS in its last eight games and 0–6 SU in its last six conference games. Georgia Tech is -17 with a total of 58.5. (Always buy the .5 point.) Pick: Boston College +17
Syracuse (3–7) (4–5–1 ATS) – Bye
The lowly Orange were crushed at Miami last weekend 38–10. Syracuse was limited to 285 yards of total offense, including just 124 passing yards. Next Game: Notre Dame
Stanford (3–6) (2–7 ATS) – Bye
The Cardinal were outscored 17 to 12 in the second half last weekend at Chapel Hill, falling to North Carolina 20–15. Stanford outgained the Tar Heels on offense 320 to 253. Next Game: California
