Frankie V’s Prediction: Notre Dame Football Should Handle Michigan State in Rivalry Renewal

It has been nine years since Notre Dame and Michigan State played a football game. The last one came in 2017, when the Irish went into Spartan Stadium and left with a 38-18 win and the Megaphone Trophy, and the series has been dormant ever since. Tonight the rivalry comes back for the 80th meeting, under the lights in South Bend.

Both teams come in at 2-0. Notre Dame is ranked third in the country and playing like a team with national championship expectations. Michigan State is three games into a rebuild under Pat Fitzgerald, who took the job in December. The Irish are giving nearly 30 points at home.

What worries me this week

These are getting a little tricky to write because Notre Dame has been such a heavy favorite in every contest this year. There isn’t really a ton that should worry Notre Dame fans, but there are a few things that could make this a little more tightly contested than fans would like.

Pat Fitzgerald’s magic inside Notre Dame Stadium

For those of you who believe in bad juju, this is not the week for you. Pat Fitzgerald was part of the 1995 Northwestern team that knocked off Notre Dame to start the season in shocking fashion. He then brought the same Northwestern Wildcats into Notre Dame Stadium in 2014 and knocked off the heavily favored Irish as the head coach.

The good news is that Darnell Autry is not coming in with him in the Northwestern backfield like in 1995, and this year’s Notre Dame team is not in a tailspin the way the 2014 squad was at the end of the season. Still, it’s hard to ignore the success the man has had in the House that Rockne Built.

The weather

The weather looked like it was going to be a major concern earlier this week, with a nasty forecast including heavy rain and thunderstorms throughout the day. As we’ve gotten closer to kickoff, it’s looking less severe. There’s a real chance of an opening and a break from the rain for a large portion of the game.

Whenever a forecast is as wet as today’s is in South Bend, it’s a toss-up as to whether we can trust the hour-by-hour version. A wet game can always cause weird things to happen: balls bouncing strangely, fumbles, other odddities, which could alter the trajectory of the game.

The Notre Dame running game

Notre Dame’s running game has not been as good as anybody was hoping for in the early part of the season, including the Notre Dame coaching staff. The reshuffled offensive line has struggled to create gaps for a running back room that is still trying to replace two all-time greats at the position, with Jeremiyah Love now running for the Arizona Cardinals and Jadarian Price with the Seattle Seahawks. In a game with potentially wet weather against a team that is going to try to control the clock, a struggling Notre Dame running game could create short drives and cut down on the number of opportunities the Irish offense has to put points on the board.

I’m not sure this is the week Notre Dame should really try to work on the run game when they were not able to run against Rice, but the weather might force it.

What doesn’t worry me this week

The Notre Dame passing game

The Notre Dame passing game should not have any trouble moving the ball on the Michigan State defense as long as the weather cooperates a little bit. If there’s driving rain and thunderstorms then the passing game might not hit its stride. If the forecast holds and there is an opening, expect CJ Carr to continue to light up the Michigan State defense the way he’s carved up Wisconsin and Rice the last two weeks. Notre Dame started to get the vertical passing game going last week against Rice and I expect that to continue. It wouldn’t surprise me if Mylan Graham finally gets going tonight.

The Notre Dame defense

Notre Dame’s defense has been dominant the last six quarters, shutting out Wisconsin in the second half and Rice for the entirety of last week’s game. I don’t expect a shutout this week, but even with Michigan State coming in with star running back Cam Edwards, I expect the Notre Dame defense to play well and continue its dominant stretch.

Pat Fitzgerald has a good chance to turn the Michigan State program around, but that’s not going to happen in game three of his first season. Notre Dame is simply too talented from top to bottom on defense for the Michigan State offense to do a whole lot tonight. The Spartans will maybe get one or two drives where things click for them, but the rest of the night is going to be a long one.

Players to watch

• Aneyas Williams. He has struggled to get going to start the season and needs to start showing signs of improvement or the young backs will start to chip away at his carries more and more.
• Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa. He returned last week and made an immediate impact. He’ll do the same tonight, but it’s worth watching what his pitch count increases to as the staff eases him back in.
• Sullivan Absher. The offensive line has not played to the standard so far this year and right guard is the position that has had the most questions. Michigan State is going to test the interior, and Absher holding up in the run game is one of the more important things happening tonight that won’t show up in the box score.
• Leonard Moore. Moore hasn’t been tested much this season, and Michigan State would be foolish to test him tonight, but at some point this season he’s going to get his hands on the football.
• Luke Talich. He gets the start again this week in place of the injured Tae Johnson. He was strong last week against Rice and should be again, but Michigan State could look to test him in the passing game more than Rice did.
• Jonaz Walton. He got eight carries against Rice, but if we see him in the first half tonight in a competitive game, that’s telling. Notre Dame talked a lot about the running back rotation this week as they look to get the ground game going.

Prediction Time

The only thing that makes this week’s prediction a little tricky is the uncertainty around the weather. If it holds and gives Notre Dame a clean window to play, this should be another blowout for the Irish. If things shift and it’s stormy with heavy rain, then things could get messy.

That said, I expect Notre Dame to continue its stretch of dominant football and not let up on an inferior opponent. Pat Fitzgerald might have the Spartans in a better position to challenge Notre Dame by next year’s contest in East Lansing, but not tonight.

Notre Dame 38, Michigan State 10.