Notre Dame returns to action on New Year’s Day in the quarterfinals of the College Football Playoffs, squaring off against the Georgia Bulldogs in the Sugar Bowl. Georiga will be without their starting quarterback, Carson Beck, while the Irish lost defensive captain Rylie Mills in the first-round playoff win over Indiana. The line in the game has hovered around Georiga -1 to -1.5 since it was announced, making this one essentially a pick ’em. Notre Dame hasn’t won a game of this magnitude in decades. Can the Irish overcome that history and the Bulldog defense to advance? Let’s dive in.
What Worries Me This Week
Notre Dame being forced to go vertical
Georgia will sell out to stop the Notre Dame run game, and they have the talent to make things difficult for Notre Dame’s dynamic duo of Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price. Notre Dame has to be patient with the running game, but Georgia will get their stops. Everyone will want to point out Georgia Tech putting up 200+ yards on the ground on them, but that was more of an outlier. Any Notre Dame fan who thinks that the Irish will be able just to come out and run it right at Georgia with success will probably be disappointed. The Irish struggled to run consistently against Indiana, who has an excellent run defense, and Georgia’s is better.
If Notre Dame can’t get anything going on the ground, it will be forced to get vertical on the Georgia defense. While the Bulldogs have been susceptible to the pass this year, it’s not Notre Dame’s strength. I think the Irish passing game is close to breaking out, but I’m also not overly confident that this is the game it happens in.
The game coming down to a kick
While Mitch Jeter’s performance against Indiana should make all Notre Dame fans much more confident than they were with where the kicking game was just a few weeks ago, there is still reason for concern. Jeter had the massive 48-yarder at the end of the first half but also had a short one blocked on an attempt with a low trajectory. Hopefully, more time removed from Jeter’s injury will do him well, but if this game comes down to a kick, I will be breathing very heavily and maybe only watching out of one eye as the Irish line up for the attempt.
Georgia’s receivers on 50/50 balls
USC had success against the Notre Dame defense by throwing up a bunch of 50/50 deep balls and hoping their elite athletes would either make the catch or draw a penalty. If I am Georgia, that’s a blueprint I will also follow. Al Golden did a better job of taking that way from Indiana. Still, Georgia has much better athletes at receiver than the Hoosiers, and even though Georgia’s receivers haven’t done much this season, they are very talented and capable of making plays if given the chance. Christian Gray responded well to his rough stretch against USC, but it’s still a concern heading into this one – especially if the pass rush can’t get home.
What Doesn’t Worry Me
Notre Dame slowing down the Georgia running game
Even with Rylie Mills out for the rest of the season, I feel good about Notre Dame’s ability to slow down the Georgia rushing attack. The Bulldogs were the second-worst rushing offense in the entire SEC this season and had just one 100-yard rusher all season. Gabriel Rubio might be a bit better against the run than Mills, even if he is a considerable drop-off in the pass rush department. Al Golden will almost certainly make Gunner Stockton beat him tonight in New Orleans – he would be foolish not to. Golden probably doesn’t even need to get too exotic to slow down the Georgia rushing attack, either. While Georgia obviously has dudes everywhere, this isn’t the same level of juggernaut Georgia team from just a couple of years ago.
Notre Dame getting Riley Leonard involved in the run game.
Georgia has had trouble with mobile quarterbacks this year, and I think we will see the whole bag of Leonard runs thrown at Georgia tonight. Leonard wasn’t used much as a runner against Indiana, but I believe that changes in a big way against the Bulldogs. Think back to the Texas A&M game when Notre Dame scratched and clawed its way to victory. They rode Leonard’s legs until things opened up for Price and Love in the second half. If Leonard has over 50 yards rushing in the Sugar Bowl, I think Notre Dame will win this game.
Players to Watch
- Jordan Faison – He had his best game of the season against Indiana, and if there is a receiver who could get vertical on Georgia, it’s Faison.
- Jeremiyah Love – I rarely list Love because he’s so obviously a critical player, but if he busts a run of 40+ yards, Notre Dame wins. He’s more than capable, but Georgia will likely do all it can to keep Love from beating them.
- Jaylen Sneed – Notre Dame needs a factor to step up in the pass rush, and Sneed feels like a prime candidate for such a role.
- Kyngston Villiamu-Asa – Will he play? It sounded optimistic last week, but recent reports suggest otherwise. Notre Dame could really use him on the field in this one.
- Drayk Bowen – The Irish need to be sound in the tackling department, and Bowen will be called upon to make some big-time stops for the Irish defense.
- Mitchell Evans – Notre Dame needs more from Evans than it got in the first round of the playoffs. If Notre Dame can work intermediate routes and avoid taking deep shots, they will be in great shape.
- Bryce Young – He caught Kirby Smart’s attention for good reason. He’s developing into a game-wrecker. Notre Dame needs his development to accelerate in this one.
- Rocco Spindler – He says he is fully ready to go, but watch his mobility if he comes out with his ankle heavily taped like it’s been in practice.
Prediction Time
Notre Dame has been in this position many times over the last 20 years and has always come up short. Unlike past instances, though, the Irish aren’t facing a juggernaut team full of generational players. This isn’t the 2012 Orange Bowl, 2018 Cotton Bowl, or 2020 Rose Bowl. Georgia is an excellent team, but they aren’t a generational team like the ones that gave the Irish almost no chance in those contests. Honestly, the most significant fear in this game is Georgia just showing up tonight and deciding to be the Georgia of old. They haven’t been that team all year but have the talent to do it. However, Marcus Freeman has proven he gets his teams up for big games like this, and I feel he’s got some magic up his sleeve. The streak and the narrative end tonight.
Notre Dame 24, Gerogia 21
Notre Dame offense must play a near perfect game. No turnovers and minimal pre snap penalties. ND has not faced a defense as physical and talented as Georgia. It is crucial for ND to put together a few 10-12 play drives that result in touchdowns and keep the injury riddled defense fresh. You have to play near perfect to off set the 2 or 3 questionable calls that will go Georgia’s way. Notre Dame 42-40 Quadruple overtime.
I think all the injuries on Defense will finally catch up to ND, Hope im 100% wrong but georgia 31 nd 17
Unfortunately, I have to agree with you….this game will come down to ND’s offense – vs- GA’s defense. GA will make ND try to beat them with Leonard’s arm and that will be our demise. GA will load the box, key on Love & Price, have an LB spy on Leonard, and play man coverage on ND WRs that are not good at getting separation. My prediction: GA 24 – ND 13.