After a second-half meltdown in last year’s bowl game against Oklahoma State, Notre Dame (0-0) should be eager to get back on track in 2022. The Irish will be led by Marcus Freeman, starting his first season as Notre Dame’s head coach. Coincidentally, Freeman’s college days were served playing linebacker for the Buckeyes. He was also an assistant coach at Ohio State in 2010, so he will be very familiar with the surroundings. That experience should provide the Irish players some insight into what to expect inside the Horseshoe.
Ohio State (0-0) expects to pick up where it left off in 2021. In last year’s Rose Bowl, the Buckeyes defeated Utah while racking up a whopping 683 yards of total offense. Quarterback C.J. Stroud threw for 573 yards and six touchdowns. This season will be championship or bust for Ohio State, and they understand that a win against the fifth-ranked Irish will have them well on their way.
Coach Freeman announced that starting guard Jarrett Patterson remains questionable due to a foot sprain. However, linebacker Marist Liufau and Joe Wilkins are probable. Senior WR Avery Davis is lost for the season due to a torn ACL, and TE Mitchell Evans is out indefinitely due to an injured foot. RB Logan Diggs is probable (shoulder).
RB Evan Pryor is out for the season due to a knee injury. WR Kamryn Babb is out indefinitely (knee).
- Notre Dame is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games against an opponent in the Big Ten conference.
- Notre Dame is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games played on a Saturday when playing on the road.
- Ohio State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 13 of Ohio State’s last 19 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Notre Dame’s last 5 games played in September.
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Line and Total
#5 Notre Dame (0-0) (0-0 ATS) at Ohio State -17.5 (0-0) (0-0 ATS)
Odds Shark’s early betting line opened with Notre Dame as a 14.5-point underdog before the line rose to where it now sits at -17.5. As a result, there are two ways most bettors will be approaching this game:
1. If Notre Dame is ranked 5th in the nation, why are the Irish nearly a three-touchdown underdog? It does not seem logical. Over the past 45 years, a team has been favored only by 17 or more points in a top-five matchup only four times.
2. Notre Dame has many question marks at key positions, such as how will the team perform with Freeman as a head coach, especially on the heels of a disappointing Fiesta Bowl outcome? How will Tyler Buchner adjust to being THE guy at quarterback? How healthy is the Notre Dame offensive line? How will the running back committee perform after the departure of Kyren Williams? Who will step up to replace Avery Davis’s role at wide receiver? Will the Notre Dame defense slow down Ohio State’s aerial assault led by Heisman candidate Stroud and arguably the best wide receiver corps in the country? Those questions will lead bettors back to question one. But, it may also give them the answer they are looking for.
Judging by the line movement, it seems like the oddsmakers are uncertain if 17 points are enough as the line continues to increase. The sharp money appears to be favoring the Buckeyes. The total on this game began at 58, while most sportsbooks have since bumped it up to 59. PICK: Ohio State
Behind Enemy Lines Week 1
Norfolk State (0-0) (0-0 ATS) at Marshall (0-0) (0-0 ATS) – N/A
UC Davis (0-0) (0-0 ATS) at California – (0-0) (0-0 ATS) – N/A
North Carolina (1-0) (0-1 ATS) at Appalachian State -1 (0-0) (0-0 ATS)
UNC tallied 608 yards of total offense, which led them to a 56-24 victory over outmatched FAMU. Tarheels’ quarterback, Drake Maye threw for 294 yards and 5 touchdowns. This will be the first game of the season for Appalachian State. North Carolina opened as 4-point favorites, but the line has shifted drastically as the Mountaineers are now 1-point favorites. The total on this game is sitting strong at 56. North Carolina is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games. The total has gone OVER in 6 of North Carolina’s last 8 games. Appalachian State is 6-0 SU in its last 6 games at home. Appalachian State are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games when playing as the underdog. PICK: Appalachian State
#25 BYU -12 (0-0) (0-0 ATS) at South Florida (0-0) (0-0 ATS)
BYU defeated South Florida last year at home, 35-27. The Bulls look to return the favor on their home turf to open the 2022 season. The Cougars opened as 13-point favorites, but the line has fallen a notch to -12. The total on this game fell a couple of spots from 60.5 to 58. Brigham Young is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road. South Florida is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games against an opponent in the Independents (FBS) conference. The total has gone OVER in 8 of South Florida’s last 9 games at home. PICK: USF
Colgate (0-0) (0-0 ATS) at Stanford (0-0) (0-0 ATS) – N/A
UNLV (1-0) (0-0 ATS) — Bye Week
UNLV defeated Idaho State last week 52-21. The Rebels next game is on September 10th at California.
Louisville -4 (0-0) (0-0 ATS) at Syracuse (0-0) (0-0 ATS)
Last November, Louisville defeated Syracuse, 41-3. Cardinals’ quarterback, Malik Cunningham threw four touchdowns and added another score on the ground. Louisville enters this game as a steady 4-point favorite and the total is hovering between 58-59 points, depending on the book. The total has gone OVER in 4 of Louisville’s last 6 games when playing on the road against Syracuse. Louisville is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games against an opponent in the Atlantic Coast Conference. Syracuse is 2-13 SU in its last 15 games against an opponent in the ACC. PICK: UL
#4 Clemson -21.5 (0-0) (0-0 ATS) at Georgia Tech (0-0) (0-0 ATS)
Last September, the Yellow Jackets gave the Tigers all they could handle before falling, 14-8. This year’s game will be played in the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on Monday night. Clemson enters the game -21.5, and the total has dropped considerably from 56.5 to 49. Clemson is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games against Georgia Tech. The total has gone OVER in 4 of Clemson’s last 5 games played on a Monday. Georgia Tech is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games against an opponent in the Atlantic Coast Conference. PICK: Clemson
Delaware (0-0) at Navy (0-0) (0-0 ATS) -N/A
Rutgers (0-0) (0-0 ATS) at Boston College -7 (0-0) (0-0 ATS)
Coach Greg Schiano hopes to rebound in his second season back as head coach after the Scarlet Knights finished 5-8 last year. The Eagles were not much better as they ended 2021 with a 6-6 record. Boston College opened -9 before the line fell two points to -7. The total on this game also dropped from 52.5 to 48.5. Rutgers is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games against Boston College. The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston College’s last 6 games at home. Boston College is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games played in week one. PICK: BC
Rice (0-0) (0-0 ATS) at #14 USC -34 (0-0) (0-0 ATS)
In what looks to be a blowout, Rice’s biggest ally may be the clock, as last year, they were among the nation’s best regarding time of possession. USC is holding firm as 34-point favorites. The total on this game is also steady at 64. Rice is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games. USC is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games. The total has gone OVER in 6 of Southern California’s last 6 games at home. PICK: USC
*Notre Dame’s 2021 opponents are listed in bold.
In bullet point #1:
“Over the past 45 years, a team has been favored only by 17 or more points in a top-five matchup.”
What was meant to be typed here? Once? twice? never?
Good eye. I caught that too. Only 4 times is the answer. Somehow that was removed. Editing is in progress.
It’s beyond unusual. Vegas did not have any say in ranking ND 5th. The line simply reflects how completely indefensible that was.