According to oddsmakers, the Irish entered last week’s game against the Boise State Broncos as a three-touchdown favorite. So, it should have come as no surprise that Notre Dame won the game 28–7. However, within the game there were a few surprises.
For starters, penalties. There was a total of 24 combined penalties between the two programs, not including the penalties that were declined. In all, Notre Dame was penalized 11 times for 112 yards and Boise State was penalized 13 times for 112 yards. The flag-throwing performance by the officials made it difficult for either team to get in any kind of rhythm on offense. Coincidentally, all four of Notre Dame’s scoring drives were penalty-free.
Although Notre Dame only managed to score four times against the outmatched Broncos, the Irish did muscle them for all four quarters. In fairness, the Irish would have easily eclipsed the 40-point mark if it were not for a failed fourth-and-goal wildcat run from the one-yard line in addition to two errant throws by CJ Carr that would’ve all resulted in touchdowns.
On the day, the redshirt sophomore quarterback completed 15 of 23 passes for 189 yards and two touchdowns. Not to be outdone by Carr, Notre Dame’s dynamic duo of running backs had solid days of their own. Jeremiyah Love finished with 16 carries for 103 yards (6.4 YPC) and a score, while Jadarian Price claimed eight carries for 83 yards (10.4 YPC), including a 49-yard touchdown run.
On the other side of the ball, Notre Dame’s defense had themselves a day. The Irish tallied four interceptions and four sacks while limiting Boise State to just one score. The Notre Dame defense also limited the Broncos to 100 yards rushing on 34 carries (2.9 YPC). At times, the violence and aggression demonstrated by Notre Dame’s defense resembled that of last year’s team. Perhaps coach Marcus Freeman’s pregame motto of “We gotta get bloody” resonated with his team because that was exactly how the Irish played.
That same type of clarity and velocity will be needed for Notre Dame’s upcoming game. While their next opponent may not be as fundamentally sound as Boise State was, it will certainly have more flash in the pan. They will possess threats on offense at the skill positions that Notre Dame has not seen since Week 3 against Texas A&M.
Next Up: NC State
Key Injuries
Notre Dame
RB Kedren Young (knee), OL Charles Jagusah (arm), OL Peter Jones (ankle), and DB DeVonta Smith are out. TE Kevin Bauman (retired). TE Cooper Flanagan (Achilles), K Noah Burnette (hip), LB Preston Zinter (concussion), and WR Jaden Greathouse (thigh) are questionable.
NC State
DB Jaren Sensabaugh, DB Isaiah Crowell, and DB Terrente Hinton are out for the season. LB Sean Brown, DB Jackson Vick, and S Brody Barnhardt are questionable.
Notre Dame Betting Trends
- Matchup history: 2–2 all time.
- The total has gone over in six of Notre Dame’s last seven games.
- Notre Dame is 14–3 ATS in its last 17 games.
- NC State is 7–13 ATS in its last 20 games.
- The total has gone over in NC State’s last seven road games.
Line (Point Spread) and Total (Over/Under)
NC State (4–2) (3–3 ATS) at No. 16 Notre Dame (3–2) (3–2 ATS)
Notre Dame’s win over Boise State marked its third win of the season. That win, combined with losses by other teams that were ranked ahead of Notre Dame, moved the Irish to No. 16 in the polls. A win over NC State on Saturday will have the Irish near playoff consideration. It’ll be easier said than done, however, as the Wolfpack showcase plenty of skill on offense, which could mean doom and gloom once again for Notre Dame defensive coordinator Chris Ash’s defense.
One of the most important statistics for any team is its quarterback’s passing efficiency. It is a statistical estimate that gives a rating based on touchdowns, completions, yards, and interceptions. Obviously, football is a team sport, but most times a high passing efficiency is what puts a program over the top. NC State quarterback CJ Bailey happens to be one of the best in the nation in that category. The true sophomore is currently ranked 14th with a passing efficiency of 168.83.
Through six games, Bailey has completed 138 of 185 passes for 1,660 yards, 13 touchdowns, and four interceptions. Three of those interceptions came in one game against Duke. What makes Bailey so efficient is that he doesn’t force throws—he reads the field and finds the open receiver. He’s thrown to at least seven different receivers in all five of NC State’s games against FBS opponents. The reason there are open receivers at times is because opposing defenses also must defend NC State’s rushing attack that features running back Hollywood Smothers. The sophomore is ranked 16th in the country in yards per carry with 6.9. He’s rushed for 693 yards and five touchdowns, including a long of 59 yards, proving he can take it to the house on any given carry.
Clearly, the issue for NC State hasn’t been its offense, as they’re ranked 45th in the nation in points per game, averaging a respectable 33.8 points per contest. However, defensively, the Wolfpack are not as strong. They are ranked 77th in scoring defense, which includes their 56–10 victory over FCS opponent Campbell. NC State’s passing defense is even worse, coming in at 97th in passing yards allowed.
Unfortunately for the Wolfpack, they’ll be facing one of the best quarterbacks in the nation on Saturday afternoon in CJ Carr. The redshirt freshman is ranked seventh in the nation with a passing efficiency of 179.68. After only five games of experience as starting quarterback for the Irish, Carr has been arguably the most consistent player on the roster. He is ranked 37th in the nation in “points responsible for,” while competing against opposing players who have played in six games so far this season. Therefore, his value to Notre Dame’s success goes without saying.
Carr’s proven consistency is also why Notre Dame enters this week’s matchup against NC State as 22.5-point favorites. The total on this game is sitting at 60.5, and the Irish have a team total set at 41.5, which means oddsmakers are expecting Carr to light up the scoreboard. Not only are the Wolfpack vulnerable to the pass on a good day, but they are also currently dealing with a plethora of injuries in their secondary. Therefore, outside of an implosion, there is no reason to expect Notre Dame to score less than forty points on Saturday. Pick: Notre Dame team total over 41.5
Behind Enemy Lines: Week 7
No. 2 Miami (5–0) (4–1 ATS) – Bye
Miami traveled to Tallahassee last weekend and took down then-No. 18 Florida State 28–22. Hurricanes quarterback Carson Beck completed 20 of 27 passes for 241 yards and four touchdowns. Next game: Louisville
Florida (2–3) (2–3 ATS) at No. 5 Texas A&M (5–0) (2–3 ATS)
The Gators are 7–2 ATS in their last nine games versus an SEC opponent. The total has gone under in four of Florida’s last five road games. Texas A&M is 1–4 ATS in its last five games against an SEC opponent. The Aggies are 9–1 SU in their last 10 home games. Texas A&M is firm at –7.5, but the total has slid down to 46. Pick: Under 46
Purdue (2–3) (2–3 ATS) at Minnesota (3–2) (1–4 ATS)
Purdue is 2–4 ATS in its last six games against Minnesota. The total has gone over in nine of Minnesota’s last 12 games versus Purdue. The Gophers are 5–2 SU in their last seven games. Minnesota opened as 10-point favorites before falling to –8.5, where it sits now. The total is hovering at 51. (Always buy the .5 point.) Pick: Purdue +9
Arkansas (2–3) (1–4 ATS) at No. 12 Tennessee (4–1) (3–2 ATS)
The Razorbacks will head to Knoxville with Bobby Petrino as their interim head coach. Arkansas is 1–4 ATS in its last five games. Tennessee is 1–7 ATS in its last eight games versus Arkansas. The total has gone under in five of the Vols’ last six games against Arkansas. Tennessee is currently –12.5 with a total of 69. Pick: Under 69
New Mexico (3–2) (3–2 ATS) at Boise State (3–2) (4–1 ATS)
New Mexico is 0–4–1 in its last five games against the Broncos. The total has gone under in New Mexico’s last seven road games at Boise State. Boise State is 6–1 in its last seven games versus a Mountain West opponent. Boise State is –17 with a total of 59.5. (Always buy the .5 point.) Pick: Over 59
No. 15 Michigan (4–1) (2–3 ATS) at USC (4–1) (2–3 ATS)
The total has gone under in four of Michigan’s last five road games. Michigan is 4–1 ATS in its last five games against a Big Ten opponent. The total has gone over in six of USC’s last seven games. USC is 5–1 SU in its last six games. Surprisingly, USC is the favorite here at –2.5. The total climbed a point to 57.5. (Always buy the .5 point.) Pick: USC –2
Clemson (2–3) (1–4 ATS) at Boston College (1–4) (2–3 ATS)
Clemson is 1–5 ATS in its last six games. The Tigers are 10–0 SU against Boston College. The total has gone over in nine of the Eagles’ last 12 games and under in four of the last six games versus Clemson. The total has moved up two spots to 55, and Clemson is hovering around –14. Pick: Clemson –14
Navy (5–0) (2–3 ATS) at Temple (3–2) (4–1 ATS)
The total has gone over in four of Navy’s last five games. Navy is 5–11 ATS in its last 16 games versus Temple. The total has gone over in Temple’s last five games against Navy. Temple is 4–2 ATS in its last six home games versus Navy. Navy opened at –7.5 before moving to –9.5. The total is sitting at 53.5 at most books. (Always buy the .5 point.) Pick: Navy –9
Pittsburgh (3–2) (3–2 ATS) at No. 25 Florida State (3–2) (3–2 ATS)
The Panthers are 2–9 ATS in their last 11 road games. The total has gone over in five of Pittsburgh’s last seven games. The total has gone over in four of Florida State’s last five games. The Seminoles opened at –9.5 before moving to –10.5. The total is settling at 58. Pick: Under 58
Syracuse (3–2) (2–2–1 ATS) – Bye
The Orange were smushed by the SMU Mustangs last weekend 31–18. Syracuse won the yardage battle 389–370 but lost the turnover battle with three interceptions to one. Next game: Pittsburgh
Stanford (2–3) (1–4 ATS) at SMU (3–2) (0–5 ATS)
Stanford is 1–5 ATS in its last six games. The total has gone over in six of Stanford’s last nine games. SMU is 0–7 ATS in its last seven games. The total has gone under in five of the Mustangs’ last six games. The line climbed two points from SMU –17.5 to –19.5. The total is set at 55. (Always buy the .5 point.) Pick: SMU –19
Notre Dame 2025 opponents are listed in bold.
