Frankie V’s Prediction: Notre Dame Aims to Ground Trojans in Rivalry Showdown

It doesn’t get much bigger than Notre Dame and USC — under the lights, in South Bend, with playoff hopes still alive for both teams. Pride is on the line for both programs, too, with the future of the longstanding rivalry uncertain after Saturday night’s showdown. The Irish enter at 4-2 while USC comes in at 5-1 with a dangerous offense and suspect defense. Saturday night has the feel of an old-school slugfest between two rivals who know each other too well to hold anything back.

What Concerns Me This Week

Injuries piling up in the trenches
Notre Dame’s depth will be tested again up front. Defensive tackle Gabriel Rubio and center Ashton Craig are both out (Craig for the season), and those absences hit hard on both lines. USC’s offensive front hasn’t been dominant, but losing Rubio weakens the rotation just as the Irish front seven seemed to be finding a rhythm. On offense, Craig’s absence means more shuffling inside against a Trojan front that likes to bring interior pressure. Meanwhile, wide receiver Devonta Smith remains questionable — and given how Freeman’s staff handles “questionable” tags, that’s rarely a sign a player is close to returning. If he’s out again, Notre Dame loses one of its few vertical slot threats.

The weather wild card
The latest forecast calls for storms and high winds in South Bend on Saturday night. Rain itself wouldn’t be a problem — if anything, it favors Notre Dame’s physical approach and backfield depth. But heavy wind could change the script. CJ Carr’s timing and accuracy have been strengths, but gusts could limit what the Irish can do vertically. If conditions get messy, expect a grind-it-out game with limited passing efficiency on both sides.

USC slot WR Makai Lemon
Sophomore Makai Lemon has become USC’s most consistent weapon, particularly working out of the slot. He’s quick, tough, and dangerous after the catch — exactly the kind of receiver Notre Dame has had trouble containing this season. With Devonta Smith banged up most of the year, slot coverage has been a soft spot for the Irish defense. Lemon could exploit that mismatch if Notre Dame doesn’t tighten up underneath.

Not Concerns

Notre Dame’s ability to run the ball
Even with Craig sidelined, the Irish should be able to lean on their ground game. Jeremiyah Love, and Jadarian Price are the best running back tandem in the country, and USC’s run defense remains suspect. If the forecast turns wet, the advantage only grows.

Red zone execution trending upward
Yes, it’s been ugly inside the 20 this season, but this feels like the week Notre Dame starts to figure things out. Carr’s growing comfort, coupled with a heavier emphasis on power sets, could finally translate into touchdowns instead of field goals. The Trojans haven’t exactly been stout defensively in short fields.

The home field advantage
It’s been more than a decade since USC last won at Notre Dame Stadium — 2013, to be exact. The Irish have taken care of business at home in this rivalry, and the crowd under the lights should be every bit as hostile as last year’s atmosphere in Los Angeles was friendly to the Trojans. The last time USC came to South Bend they had playoff hopes and Caleb Williams was the reigning Hesiman winner and we all remember how that one turned out.

Players to Watch

• Boubacar Traore, DE – Coming off his best stretch of the season, Traore’s ability to generate pressure could be key against USC’s quick passing attack.
• Dallas Golden, CB – If Smith can’t go, the freshman will see an expanded role in coverage again. His range and instincts could be tested early against USC’s slot-heavy looks.
• Junior Tuihalamaka, LB – A Southern California native who plays with an edge, Tuihalamaka will be motivated to make an impact against his home-state Trojans.
• Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa, LB – Another SoCal product, Viliamu-Asa has been steady beyond his years. His sideline-to-sideline pursuit and tackling will be crucial in limiting USC’s yards after catch.
• CJ Carr, QB – First Notre Dame–USC for Notre Dame’s rising star QB. How he handles the moment and the weather will go a long way in determining the outcome.

Prediction

This one is tough to predict because of the weather. Vegas has Notre Dame as nearly a 10-point favorite, but most Notre Dame fans are not nearly as bullish – a situation that doesn’t happen all that often. Notre Dame’s front seven will force enough stops and get their hands on some turnovers, and will still allow some big plays. The running game will wear down a soft Trojan defense, and Carr will make just enough throws when it matters.

Frankie V’s Pick: Notre Dame 38, USC 31