After losing two heartbreakers to start the season, Marcus Freeman enters this showdown with a four-game winning streak. Just a few weeks ago, this game did not have much significance. Now, both teams are in the top 20 and looking to insert themselves into the College Football Playoff picture. Everything is on the line in South Bend, as the USC Trojans fly out to Notre Dame to take on the Fighting Irish under the lights.
Essential Game Info:
- Game Time: Saturday, October 18, 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC
- Location: Notre Dame Stadium, South Bend, Indiana
- Matchup History: Notre Dame Football is 52–38–5 all-time against the USC Trojans (last meeting 2024: Irish won 49–35)
- Odds: Notre Dame –7.5
- Trophy: Jeweled Shillelagh
Details
- Conference: Big Ten
- Head Coach: Lincoln Riley
- 2025 Record: 5–1 (3–1)
- 2024 Record: 7–6 (4–5)
USC Storylines:
Can USC win in South Bend? The Trojans only have one victory at Notre Dame Stadium since 2010. During that time span, most Irish wins have been by several scores.
This year’s matchup is more important than ever. For the USC Trojans, Lincoln Riley has yet to make the playoffs or Big Ten Championship Game while in Southern California. Meanwhile, this is Notre Dame’s opportunity to solidify itself in the College Football Playoff conversation and finally have a marquee win.
The USC offense is led by quarterback Jayden Maiava. In 2025, Maiava is 123-for-171 (72%) with 1,852 passing yards, 13 passing touchdowns, two interceptions, and three sacks. On the ground, he has 21 attempts for 50 yards (2.4 yards per attempt) with four rushing scores.
Makai Lemon and Ja’Kobi Lane are the leading receivers for the Trojans. This fall, Lemon has 44 receptions for 682 yards with six touchdowns, while Lane has 18 catches for 313 yards and two touchdowns.
Notre Dame Storylines:
The Irish offense struggles in the red zone and short yardage. On a positive note, the Fighting Irish tallied 36 points as a team despite struggling in key situations on offense. If they had executed better, it could have been 50+ points (but hypotheticals do not count).
If Notre Dame wants to beat USC this weekend, it must figure out how to convert short-yardage situations. Mike Denbrock’s offense had a turnover on downs and an interception in the red zone against the NC State Wolfpack. It seems as though the Irish offense has struggled all season with critical short-yardage situations. I do not know the answer to the test question, but I sure hope Coach Denbrock figures something out before the USC game this Saturday.
Chris Ash will face a major test against USC. Last Saturday night, the Trojans put up 489 yards of total offense, with a balanced attack of 265 passing yards alongside 224 rushing. Their quarterback, Jayden Maiava, has only thrown two interceptions and taken three sacks all year.
It is essentially the same story every time the Trojans come to South Bend. USC’s offense is headlined by outstanding quarterback play and elite wide receivers, and Lincoln Riley’s offense likes getting the football out fast before a pass rush can get to the quarterback. Meanwhile, the Irish have a great group of running backs and a defense that has found its footing.
But this time around, Notre Dame may even have a better passing attack than the Trojans, which could be the difference in this gridiron clash.
Head-to-Head Matchups:
Notre Dame Offense vs. USC Defense:
The Fighting Irish offense is averaging 466 yards per game, while the Trojan defense is allowing 352 yards per matchup.
In USC’s recent matchups, they gave up 31 points to Michigan State, 34 to Illinois, and 13 to Michigan last Saturday. But CJ Carr and this Irish offense will be the best unit the Trojans have seen all season.
Advantage: Notre Dame
USC Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense:
The USC offense is averaging 552 yards per contest, while the Notre Dame defense is allowing 352 yards per game.
On a positive note, Notre Dame has already faced several high-powered offenses in Miami, Texas A&M, and Arkansas. Since the second half of the Purdue game, Chris Ash’s defense has played great. If this unit can limit the Trojans this weekend, I will finally say “they are back.”
I am worried about how many points the Trojans put up against Michigan last week. Lincoln Riley designed plays to get the ball out before the Wolverines could apply pressure to the quarterback.
Advantage: USC
Special Teams:
USC’s Ryon Sayeri is 9-for-10 this year, with his longest conversion at 54 yards. Conversely, Noah Burnette is 5-for-5, with his longest conversion at 48 yards.
There is no distinct advantage on special teams.
Advantage: Tie
My Prediction:
The second half of Notre Dame’s 2025 campaign is not as easy as many have predicted. USC enters this showdown ranked No. 20 at 5–1, and Navy has improved to 6–0. Meanwhile, their only two losses of the season are now ranked second (Miami) and fourth (Texas A&M).
Notre Dame Stadium has been a tough place for the Trojans to visit. I know that the Irish cannot win every single game against USC in South Bend, but I do not think the winning streak for Coach Freeman’s group ends this season. The crowd will be electric, and Notre Dame can rewrite its 2025 narrative, which we all thought ended against the Aggies.
Notre Dame’s offense will put up points, but it must find a way to execute on 3rd-and-short or 4th-and-short. If they can make those adjustments, then this offense will be putting up video game–like numbers.
For the Irish defense, it will be important to slow down the Trojans, who are looking to get the football out quick. I believe Chris Ash’s group will give up some points this Saturday but ultimately will get the job done.
I have the Fighting Irish winning by 10 points.
Prediction: Notre Dame 34, USC 24
