Frankie V’s Prediction: Will Notre Dame Offense Have to Survive a Shootout in Arkansas?

Notre Dame heads to Fayetteville this weekend for its first-ever matchup with Arkansas, a game that has the makings of a shootout. The Razorbacks haven’t looked like a complete team this fall, but they’ve flashed a potentially explosive offense that could stress a Notre Dame defense still searching for answers under Chris Ash. On the other side, Arkansas brings one of the worst defenses the Irish will see all season, giving CJ Carr and the Irish offense a chance to build on last week’s balanced attack.

The Irish enter this contest as a touchdown favorite, but bettors are treating this one with caution after Notre Dame’s uneven start. We already broke down the numbers in this week’s What Though the Odds column, but the bottom line is that oddsmakers expect plenty of points. That should come as no surprise given Notre Dame’s defensive woes and Arkansas’ inability to stop anyone.

Between Marcus Freeman pushing his defensive staff in uncomfortable meetings earlier this week and his public backing of Ash despite the mounting struggles, the spotlight on the defense has never been brighter. Add in the intensity around Arkansas’ planned “stripe out” (as we covered in Matchups That Matter), and Saturday should be telling. Whether the Irish defense can finally show signs of life may define not just this game, but the season ahead.

What Concerns Me

• Injuries in the secondary: It sounds like Notre Dame will get Devonta Smith back, but Leonard Moore remains questionable — and in Notre Dame-speak, that usually isn’t a good sign. Even at full strength, the secondary has been torched all year and currently ranks among the worst statistically in the country. More shuffling on the back end could be a recipe for disaster against Arkansas’ passing game.
• Lack of pass rush: There were glimpses of life in the second half against Purdue, but I still have major doubts that Chris Ash can dial up a defense that consistently generates the kind of pressure Irish fans have grown accustomed to in recent years. His unit’s inability to do so has been a recurring theme and a major reason why the defense has become such a liability, as we noted when Freeman backed Ash earlier this week.
• Taylen Green’s legs: Contain defense has been an issue all season, and Arkansas quarterback Taylen Green is exactly the type of player who can make Notre Dame pay. If the Irish don’t stay disciplined, Green will rip off chunk plays on the ground.

What Doesn’t Concern Me

• CJ Carr and the passing game: The freshman turned in his best performance yet against Purdue, looking both efficient and explosive. With Arkansas’ secondary struggling mightily, Carr should have every opportunity to build on that momentum.
• Notre Dame’s wide receiver depth: Malachi Fields has emerged as the go-to target, but the Irish are spreading the ball around effectively. Between Jordan Faison, Jaden Greathouse, and the tight ends, there are too many weapons for Arkansas’ shaky defense to cover.
• The Irish ground game: After breaking out in a big way against Purdue, the tandem of Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price will be licking their chops. Arkansas has been porous against the run all season, with sloppy tackling compounding their problems.

Players to Watch

• Boubacar Traore and Bryce Young: Both young pass rushers are flashing more each week, consistently getting close to finishing plays. Notre Dame desperately needs one of them to finally get home and provide a spark off the edge.
• Christian Gray: With Leonard Moore likely sidelined, Gray will once again be counted on heavily in the secondary. He’s going to be tested early and often by Arkansas’ receivers.
• Kyngstonn Villiamu-Asa: The freshman has been Notre Dame’s most consistent linebacker so far. The question is whether his snap count finally increases as the staff looks for stability in the middle of the defense.
• Jaden Greathouse and Will Pauling: The slot hasn’t been a focal point of the offense this season, but with two capable playmakers inside, this could be the week Mike Denbrock schemes them into more touches.
• Ty Washington: Facing his former team, the Arkansas transfer tight end is a natural candidate for Denbrock to feature in the game plan. Look for Notre Dame to try to exploit mismatches with him in the passing game.
• Anthonie Knapp: While Notre Dame’s offensive line has been solid overall, Knapp has had some lapses in pass protection that could become an issue if Arkansas can generate pressure.
• Eli Raridon: After being quiet against Purdue following two strong opening weeks, Raridon is another player whose role bears watching. The Irish offense is at its best when the tight ends are involved.

Prediction
This one has all the makings of a shootout. Arkansas has enough offensive firepower to expose Notre Dame’s struggling defense, and it wouldn’t shock me if the Razorbacks put up one of their best offensive performances of the season. I could absolutely see Notre Dame losing this game given how bad the defense has been, but I’m just not ready yet to think about the actual implications of this team dropping a game to someone like Arkansas. For now, I’ll lean on CJ Carr and the Irish offense to carry the day. Notre Dame 42, Arkansas 34.